The biggest riser from the weekend is obviously Dylan Crews, who we learned Friday would join the Nationals for his major-league debut Monday. Generally, I focus on on-the-field performance in this article, but seeing as Crews was the No. 2 pick in last year's draft and remains a consensus top-five prospect, I'd be remiss not to give my take on him.
The difficulty curve is especially steep for hitters breaking into the majors right now, and I don't see why Crews would be any different. Other first-time call-ups have failed to gain a foothold even with far better minor-league numbers than him.
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But upside is upside, and Crews' is apparent both from his pedigree and the data underlying his performance, specifically with regard to exit velocity and plate discipline. Crews making an immediate splash in the majors is hardly outside the realm of possibility, so even if I'm inclined to bet against it, there's value to adding him in Fantasy. In fact, I'd consider it a must in five-outfielder leagues, where there really aren't enough to go around at the position. It's more of a judgment call in three-outfielder leagues, where you'll have to assess your needs and willingness to gamble on upside.
To start out, I'm ranking Crews 46th among outfielders, but I'd say that rostering him over anyone ranked 39th or lower is defensible.
Of course, there's another recent call-up who I'd be even more eager to roster based on what he showed this weekend ...
Stock Up
Among the many praises sung for Junior Caminero, as he rocketed up prospected rank lists the past couple of years, the most common was that he hits the ball as hard as any minor-leaguer. Turns out he also hits the ball as hard as anyone who played in this past weekend's Rays-Dodgers series, Shohei Ohtani included. Caminero, who only joined the Rays on Aug. 13, was responsible for seven of the nine hardest-hit balls over those three games, averaging 110.5 mph on them. He went 6 for 13 with two homers, two doubles, and just one strikeout, with that last number maybe being the most notable. The biggest exit velocity standouts to reach the majors the past two years, Elly De La Cruz and Oneil Cruz, both struggled to make consistent contact, but that's not an issue for Caminero, who some publications rated as the No. 1 prospect at the time of his promotion. He got his feet wet last September, but now, almost a year later, he seems primed to take the league by storm.
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Bowden Francis' no-hit bid Saturday was just the latest demonstration of how difficult to hit he can be. Over his past three starts, he's allowed a combined five hits in 22 innings to go with a 0.82 ERA and 11.0 K/9. The real question is if it can continue, and regarding that, I'm at a loss. The 28-year-old's overall track record uninspiring. He did have a 2.04 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 between the majors and minors last year, though it came mostly in relief. His fastball averages only 93 mph, and the characteristics on his secondary pitches aren't particularly noteworthy. He has introduced a splitter this year and doubled its usage in his past two outings (note: not all three), but the fastball was responsible for 10 of his 15 whiffs Saturday. So I don't claim to understand it, but as good as Francis has looked, I say we add first and ask questions later.
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Friday's outing represented Joe Musgrove's first time taking on a conventional starter's workload since his lengthy IL stint for a bone spur in his elbow. It also served as reassurance that he really is the same guy -- the best possible version, in fact. In his three starts since returning, he has a 0.57 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and 9.2 K/9 to go along with a 70 percent strike rate and 13 percent swinging-strike rate. What makes this return to form surprising is that he's still pitching with the bone spur, and in fact, reports back in June suggested that he may have to alter his delivery to compensate. But so far, the only alternation noted by those on the Padres beat is the addition of a harder, tighter slider to bridge the divide between his sweeper and cutter. Whether Musgrove actually needs a new weapon is up for debate, but whether you should start him in Fantasy no longer is.
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Bobby Miller went into Friday's start with a 7.44 ERA between the majors and minors. You could blame a balky shoulder for derailing him early, but he's been back on the mound since late May, for crying out loud. Only Friday did he offer a glimmer of hope that he might regain his rookie form. Though a hard thrower, he relied on his fastball just 29 percent of the time as a rookie, deploying a mix of five pitches all thrown 15 percent of the time or more. His fastball usage this year has been up over 40 percent, but he got it down to 31 percent in Friday's start, much closer to last year's usage. "Leading up to this start, I was focusing a lot on curveball, changeup, mixing in a little bit of sliders, but you know, focusing on getting my strengths back," Miller said. It seemed to work, and if he follows up this start with something similar against the Orioles, he'll be back in Fantasy Baseballers' good graces, given the upside.
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Gavin Stone was so bad in July and the first half of August that I didn't give much thought to using him in a two-start week, even with matchups as favorable as the Mariners and Rays. But between the two, he ended up allowing one run on five hits with four walks and 17 strikeouts over 14 innings, showing the form that made him a coveted Fantasy option earlier this season. His pitch selection didn't change significantly, but he credited pitching coach Mark Prior and other members of the Dodgers staff for "seeing certain things" and "fine-tuning" them (which may mean he made a mechanical tweak, though I can't say for sure). The matchups no doubt helped, too, but the bottom line is that Stone has gone from being a borderline drop to a must-have again.
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After giving him only sporadic playing time initially, the Guardians have apparently decided that Jhonkensy Noel's power is too big to keep on the bench, starting him in 10 of their past 12 games. Two of those starts came over the weekend, and Big Christmas responded by going 4 for 8 with two home runs. The hulking slugger has now homered 30 times in just 106 games between the majors and minors, and if you need any more convincing that his power is legit, note that only 17 major-leaguers have hit a ball harder his year. Those who haven't include Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber. Noel does have a strikeout rate near 30 percent and a particular vulnerability against right-handed pitchers, but high-quality contact can make up for those shortcomings. Now that the Guardians are treating him like a regular, he should be rostered in five-outfielder leagues.
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Stock Down
After carrying a 1.72 ERA into June and a 2.17 ERA into July, Seth Lugo has gotten a healthy dose of regression these past two months. His latest misstep Sunday gives him a 5.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 6.5 K/9 in his past eight start even though three of those starts were among his best of the year. I think it's as simple as him coming back down to earth. There were no good explanations for why the 34-year-old was so dominant, with all the ERA estimators pinning him for something in the mid-to-high threes, so while he's still capable of putting together a strong outing, the consistency isn't going to be what it once was. You'll want to pay close attention to the matchups for Lugo moving forward rather than just reflexively starting him.
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Regarded as a top prospect as recently as last year, Taj Bradley looked like a breakout ace earlier this year, putting together a nine-start stretch from June 8 to July 25 with a 0.82 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. That performance is difficult to reconcile with what we've seen from him lately. Saturday's poor showing gives him a 7.96 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 in his past five. What's most frustrating is it's difficult to pinpoint what's gone wrong for the 23-year-old. His velocity has mostly held steady, and his pitch selection is largely unchanged. He does allow some of the hardest contact on average, placing in only the 3rd percentile for that metric, and while it wasn't a big deal when he was missing bats aplenty, his margin for error may be smaller than the average pitcher. Dumping Bradley seems like it could backfire, but you can't start him until he shows clear signs of turning things around.
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