Fantasy Baseball Weekend Stockwatch: Spencer Horwitz, Connor Norby power up; Spencer Schwellenbach cooling off

Connor Norby wouldn't seem to have a lot of raw power. He comes out of the weekend with an average exit velocity of 85.1 mph and a max of 107.5 mph, and the Triple-A readings aren't much better. But he was never lacking for home runs in the minors, and again, his three this weekend weren't cheapies. The shortest traveled 401 feet, and he hit two the opposite way, including the 435-foot blast highlighted above. His first 16 games with the Marlins saw him hit an additional three home runs, so at this rate, I'm not so much doubting his power as his ability to make consistent contact, judging by his 33 percent strikeout rate and 73 percent zone-contact rate in the majors so far. It's a flawed profile that still needs some sorting out, but with the Marlins facing five lefties this upcoming week, who Norby throttled to the tune of .324 batting and .968 OPS at Triple-A this year, the rookie is at least worth a short-term pickup.

Spencer Horwitz's exit velocities are only a little better than Connor Norby's, but his plate discipline is way better, namely the 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Bat control was always the selling point for Horwitz, who hit .336 at Triple-A between 2023 and 2024 The reason he didn't show up on top-100 lists and didn't get an honest chance in the majors until age 26 is because he lacked the power required of a first baseman, which is how he wound up at second. His weekend in Atlanta would seem to belie that idea, though. First were the two balls hit off the fence and two more over the fence Saturday. Then came another home run Sunday, along with a couple of near home runs pulled just foul, which is apparently the key to Horowitz unlocking more power. "We're doing [drills] working on my tightness to make sure I can pull the ball the right way," he said. The downside for him is that he occasionally sits against lefties, but he may be emerging as a long-term fixture for the Blue Jays.

Jared Jones took the league by surprise at the start of the year, dominating with just his fastball and slider, more or less. But the whiffs began to dry up in the weeks leading up to his IL stint for a lat strain, and his grand return Aug. 27 was arguably his worst start of the year. It wasn't clear Jones was even worth using in Fantasy anymore. Fortunately, the rookie tried something different Sunday, deploying his curveball, heretofore scarcely thrown, a whopping 29 percent of the time. It didn't even seem like the same version of the pitch. Its velocity was up 3.4 mph. Its vertical break was down four inches. I wonder if it was a misclassified slider, but the characteristics were clearly different from that pitch. Jones had his best start since early May with this new weapon and suddenly seems worth using again.

It's true Sean Manaea allowed four earned runs in his latest start Friday against the Reds, but seeing as he struck out nine and registered 19 swinging strikes, I regard it as a continuation of the eight-start stretch that's seen him take a turn for the studly (as the above numbers show). And now I have an explanation for it, courtesy Tim Britton of The Athletic. It all started when Manaea saw Chris Sale dominate his team July 25 and decided to mimic his delivery, creating a lower release point that made his fastball more of a bat-misser. He later developed a new changeup grip and has begun leaning all the more on that pitch in his past five starts, creating a more effective counter for his fastball. Between the new delivery and the new pitch selection, he's practically a new pitcher now -- one that's practically a must-start the rest of the way.

The season-long numbers for Eugenio Suarez are good enough that they've finally moved him past the 80 percent roster threshold, ending any talk of him as a potential waiver wire pickup (though just barely). Of course, the reason it took so long is because he was hitting .196 with a .591 OPS as late as June 30. The flip side is that he's batting .316 with 20 homers and a 1.024 OPS since July 1, 60 games in all, with an improved strikeout rate (23.6 percent vs. 29.2 percent) and average exit velocity (90.5 mph vs. 87.4 mph) during that time. It just keeps getting better, too. Following his 4-for-5 performance Sunday, Suarez is now batting .452 (14 for 31) with five home runs in September alone, so perhaps instead of an 80 percent rostered guy, we should treat him as a must-start player.

Well, Matthew Boyd did it again, delivering his third consecutive start of six innings with just one earned run allowed, only this time wasn't against the Rangers or Pirates but rather the destroyer-of-dreams Dodgers. In addition to his 2.20 ERA and 0.77 WHIP, he boasts a 14 percent swinging-strike rate that would rank seventh, just behind Chris Sale, if he had the innings to qualify. We've been down this road enough times with Boyd, now 33, to know how it ends. For as good as he can look for stretches, his vulnerability to the long ball figures to catch up to him eventually. But after the way he handled the Dodgers, we should be able to trust him against the White Sox this week, and then the following week, he lines up for two starts (Twins and Cardinals). Sounds like someone you'll want to keep in your lineup, no?

When the Yankees removed Clay Holmes from the closer role, they didn't have an obvious replacement waiting in the wings. But you see the numbers for Luke Weaver this year. For all his past failures as a starting pitcher, he's arguably been their best reliever and has generally worked the seventh or eighth inning, piling up 21 holds in the process. It seemed only fitting, then, when he got the team's first save post-Holmes Friday, and while we can't be sure he'll get the next one, he's now the odds-on favorite to lead the club in saves the rest of the way.

It was only a couple weeks ago that Spencer Schwellenbach was coming off an eight-start high with a 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 11.0 K/9. He was talk of Fantasy Baseball with his pristine control, six-pitch arsenal and newfound ability to generate whiffs, with the only remaining question being how high he could possibly be drafted next year. Three starts later, new questions have emerged. He's averaged about five innings between them, allowing 24 total baserunners, and he's not making batters miss anymore. I suspect that after throwing 65 professional innings last year, he's just not as sharp at 142 2/3 this year, and while I still like his upside for 2025, Schwellenbach is clearly a sit for his next start against the Dodgers ."It is a grind," he said after Saturday's start. "I haven't thrown this many innings in my life."

From April 17 through July 21, 11 of Brandon Pfaadt's 17 starts were quality starts. He has exactly one quality start in eight chances since then. During that reliable 17-start stretch, he had a 3.30 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. During this current eight-start stretch, which continued with a beatdown at the hand of the Astros Friday, he has a 6.25 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. His control remains excellent and his whiff rate not bad. He also has 3.68 xERA, 3.54 FIP and 3.66 xFIP compared to a 4.42 ERA overall. Clearly, he deserves better, but we can't count on regression at this point in the season. Pfaadt is simply too combustible to trust right now and, therefore, droppable in 12-team leagues.

If it wasn't already clear that Justin Verlander is on the outs at age 41, this latest start against the Diamondbacks makes it abundantly so. The signs were there last year with his K/9 dropping below 8.0 and his swinging-strike rate dropping below 10 percent -- both abominable marks for a pitcher long known for overpowering hitters -- and this year has made that decline manifest. He's struggled to take the mound, and when he has, he's hardly struck fear in the hearts of hitters, putting together a 9.68 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in four starts since his latest IL stint. It's time to move on from him in Fantasy, regardless of his 91 percent roster rate, and when I say "move on," I suspect that I mean forever.