After Joe Saunders tossed up zeroes on opening night, who needs John Lackey anyway? Or Ervin Santana or Kelvim Escobar?
OK, so their Fantasy owners do, some desperately.
Oh, and, in Lackey and Escobar's cases, their agents do. Lackey is a golden paycheck next winter in free agency. Escobar could be, too.
For the second consecutive year, Lackey opened the season on the 15-day DL and is targeting a May 1 return. So, too is Santana, who will begin throwing off the mound this weekend. Heck, Escobar might even beat that duo back from shoulder surgery, as he is starting a Class A rehab assignment Thursday.
Unlike Santana or Escobar, for a five-month season, Lackey is an innings-eating ace that could still reach 200 innings. That would mean he averages around seven innings per start. The past couple of seasons he has been around 6.8 innings per start. You can see him certainly motivated to go the extra five or six innings to get his resume up to snuff before free agency.
You have to love a player performing for a life-changing contract. And you have to like Lackey's chances to get healthy more than most. At 30, you have to figure he has a few more prime years left in his country-strong right arm.
Before his past two injury-plagued Aprils, Lackey has started 33 games and surpassed 200 innings in four of the previous five seasons. The one season he fell short, he started 32 games and went 198 1/3 innings. He is a horse.
Owned in 65 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues, Lackey will rise to near full ownership after he makes his season debut around May 1.
Santana, 26 and just now entering his prime, has an identical ownership percentage and could be ready about the same time -- although his health is a bit more uncertain. Lackey threw off the mound Monday, while Santana will try to for the first time in a month this weekend.
"So far, so good," Santana told the Los Angeles Times. "We'll see what happens when I go off a mound."
Escobar, meanwhile, made his spring debut last Friday, throwing in the mid-90s, and is slated to open the Class A season with Rancho Cucamonga this weekend. He will throw 55-60 pitches and might need just one or two more rehab start(s) before he can be activated by the injury-hit Angels.
They figured they would get a good effort out of 17-game winner Saunders, but they certainly cannot be as confident in the likes of Jered Weaver (he is still a Weaver), Dustin Moseley (coming off a 6.97 Triple-A ERA last year!) and 29-year-old minor league veteran Shane Loux, who is merely keeping the No. 5 spot warm for Escobar at this point.
The Angels had rotation depth coming into spring and figured to get more with the surprising return of Escobar, but it got burnt on the DL with the unexpected losses of Lackey and Santana. It will be fun watching one of baseball's most stout 2008 rotations evolve in 2009, especially since the competition can only mean motivated pitchers for Fantasy owners, be it free agency or merely their big league life itself.
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Pitcher | TM | |
1 | Trevor Cahill | OAK |
2 | Chris Carpenter | STL |
3 | Ryan Franklin | STL |
4 | Brad Penny | BOS |
5 | Brett Anderson | OAK |
6 | Koji Uehara | BAL |
7 | James McDonald | LAD |
8 | Brandon Morrow | SEA |
9 | Jeff Niemann | TB |
10 | Kelvim Escobar | LAA |
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Pitcher | TM | |
1 | Jason Motte | STL |
2 | Chris Ray | BAL |
3 | Oliver Perez | NYM |
4 | Justin Verlander | DET |
5 | Cliff Lee | CLE |
6 | Brandon Webb | ARI |
7 | John Lannan | WAS |
8 | Carl Pavano | CLE |
9 | Justin Duchscherer | OAK |
10 | Bronson Arroyo | CIN |
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Brandon Webb
- Dan Haren
- Doug Davis
- Jon Garland
- Max Scherzer, expected to return from DL on Tuesday, April 14
Week 2 two-starter(s): Davis. He is a sleeper for deeper leagues
if he pitches well Wednesday.
Starters on the DL: Scherzer
(shoulder). He is expected to be ready to be activated the first time
the No. 5 starter is needed April 14. Consider him a sleeper in Fantasy
Week 2 (April 13-19).
Starters to watch in the minors: Jarrod Parker. He is real good, but he might not arrive at all this
season.
Atlanta Braves
- Derek Lowe
- Jair Jurrjens
- Javier Vazquez
- Kenshin Kawakami
- Tom Glavine, expected to return from DL on Saturday, April 18
Week 2 two-starter(s): Vazquez. He starts Wednesday at Philly,
but he should be owned in all leagues already. He might be a must-start,
two-starter.
Starters on the DL: Tim Hudson (elbow) and Glavine (elbow). Hudson is out until at
least August after Tommy John surgery, while Glavine should be activated
before the end of Fantasy Week 2 (April 13-19). He is a risky option off
the DL, especially at his age, but that is a bad Pirates team. The more
important thing to watch is whether he cannot start, because that could
mean the arrival of ...
Starters in the minors to watch: Tommy Hanson. There is only one starting pitching prospect better
that is starting in the minors and that person's name rhymes with rice.
Baltimore Orioles
Week 2 two-starter(s): Uehara and perhaps Simon, if the O's
consider skipping No. 5 starter Eaton. Uehara's Orioles debut Wednesday
will be newsworthy across the Earth.
Starters on the DL: Rich Hill (elbow). He has a lot of work to do to get healthy and
build up his arm. Consider him a DL stashee in AL-only formats right now.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Chris Tillman,
Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz. Future aces, all. Bradley Bergesen could be intriguing, too.
Boston Red Sox
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Pitcher | TM | |
1 | Glen Perkins | MIN |
2 | Koji Uehara | BAL |
3 | Kyle Davies | KC |
4 | Jered Weaver | LAA |
5 | Vicente Padilla | TEX |
6 | Fausto Carmona | CLE |
7 | Kevin Slowey | MIN |
8 | Jamie Moyer | PHI |
9 | Doug Davis | ARI |
10 | Ted Lilly | CHC |
11 | Zach Miner | DET |
12 | Chris Volstad | FLA |
13 | Zach Duke | PIT |
14 | Walter Silva | SD |
15 | Ricky Romero | TOR |
16 | Jesse Litsch | TOR |
17 | Daniel Cabrera | WAS |
Week 2 two-starter(s): Lester. He debuts Wednesday and many are
picking him to win the AL Cy Young. He is a third-year starting pitcher
capable of performing on the level of anyone. Consider him a must-start
option in all weeks right now.
Starters on the DL: John Smoltz (shoulder). Smoltz is being brought along slowly and
will try to build up for a late May return. He will stay in extended
spring training, which (coincidentally) ends in late May.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Clay Buchholz
and Michael Bowden. Justin Masterson, a setup man who won't be stretched out, and Buchholz
will be factors this year, but Bowden likely won't be, barring a series
of big injuries.
Chicago Cubs
- Carlos Zambrano
- Ryan Dempster
- Ted Lilly
- Rich Harden
- Sean Marshall, expected to make first start April 19
Week 2 two-starter(s): Lilly. He starts Wednesday at Houston and
should win that matchup, so check to see if he is available.
Starters
on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jeff Samardzija. Not making the team out of spring training as a
reliever helps his potential to be recalled as the Cubs' defacto No. 6
starter. Aaron Heilman won't be
stretched out and Chad Gaudin was
released.
Chicago White Sox
Week 2 two-starter(s): Floyd and Danks. Floyd and Danks are
likely must-starts in all leagues.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Aaron Poreda
and Jeff Marquez. Poreda will be in the
rotation by June 1, we say. Clayton Richard
opens the year in long relief, which could make it tougher for him to be
stretched out to start if there is an injury to the veterans on the
staff.
Cincinnati Reds
Week 2 two-starter(s): Volquez. Unless he is beaten up by the
Mets, he will be a must-start, two-start pitcher next week.
Starters
on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: Homer Bailey and Daryl Thompson.
Bailey has the potential to be a big-time impact call-up. He earned a
rotation spot this spring, but there wasn't one available. Now is not
the time to forget about that kind of talent. Thompson is more of a
back-end starter long term, but he has been hot in the minors the past
few seasons.
Cleveland Indians
- Cliff Lee
- Fausto Carmona
- Carl Pavano
- Scott Lewis
- Anthony Reyes
Week 2 two-starter(s): Carmona and Pavano. Carmona is a
must-start unless Texas does to him what they did to reigning AL Cy
Young winner Lee, while Pavano goes at KC (decent) and at NYY (ouch!).
If Pavano can handle pitching at Texas, his return to New York shouldn't
scare you off him in deeper leagues.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow). He is out until at least July after Tommy
John surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Huff, Jeremy Sowers and Charles Lofgren. Adam Miller has staved
off finger surgery, but his future is now as a reliever at best. We
don't think he will hold Fantasy value like those other three could this
season.
Colorado Rockies
- Aaron Cook
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Franklin Morales
- Jason Marquis
- Jorge De La Rosa or Jason Hammel, who was acquired in a trade Sunday with the Rays.
Week 2 two-starter(s): Jimenez, maybe. The Rockies play only five
games next week, so unless they skip their No. 5 starter, they won't
have a two-start pitcher.
Starters on the DL: Jeff Francis (shoulder). He is out for the season.
Starters to
watch in the minors: Greg Smith, Jason Hirsh and Jhoulys Chacin.
Chacin is going to be the 2007 Jimenez/Morales impact second-half
call-up.
Detroit Tigers
Week 2 two-starter(s): Miner. He pitches Wednesday at TOR. He
could be a two-start sleeper, or out of the rotation. Watch him.
Starters
on the DL: Jeremy Bonderman
(shoulder) and Dontrelle Willis (anxiety
disorder). Bonderman might be back by late April. Willis is anyone's
guess right now. They are decent stashees, though.
Starters to
watch in the minors: Cody Satterwhite. With Porcello and Ryan Perry already in the majors, they are real thin on the farm,
dangerously thin.
Florida Marlins
- Ricky Nolasco
- Josh Johnson
- Chris Volstad
- Anibal Sanchez
- Andrew Miller, expected to make first start April 18 at Washington
Week 2 two-starter(s): Volstad. He should pitch very well
Wednesday vs. the Nationals, leading him to be picked up in many leagues
for his two-start week.
Starters on the DL: Rick VandenHurk (elbow). We don't see him being a factor this season.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Sean West, Ryan Tucker, Brett Sinkbeil, Aaron Thompson and Burke Badenhop
might get looks before the end of the season. The Marlins are loaded
with organizational depth, so Miller will have a short leash.
Houston Astros
- Roy Oswalt
- Wandy Rodriguez
- Mike Hampton
- Brian Moehler
- Russ Ortiz, expected to make his first start April 19 vs. Cincinnati
Week 2 two-starter(s): Moehler, maybe. Assuming he doesn't pitch
himself out of the rotation Wednesday vs. the Cubs, his matchups at PIT
and vs. CIN are decent if you need a sleeper in deeper leagues.
Starters
on the DL: Brandon Backe (oblique).
Will throw off a mound Wednesday and perhaps start a rehab assignment
thereafter. He is nothing more than a high-risk starter for the deepest
of NL-only leagues, when healthy.
Starters to watch in the minors: Bud Norris and Felipe Paulino. The
Astros are going to need these guys this year, for better or for worse.
Kansas City Royals
- Gil Meche
- Zack Greinke
- Kyle Davies
- Sidney Ponson
- Horacio Ramirez, expected be to skipped in Fantasy Week 2 (April 13-19)
Week 2 two-starter(s): Greinke and likely Kyle Davies. Greinke pitches Wednesday and could earn must-start
status. Davies had a great spring and starts Thursday at the White Sox
to potentially earn two-start sleeper status. Watch Davies closely. He
could be a real waiver gem.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Brian Bannister,
Luke Hochevar, Danny Cortes and Carlos Rosa. The
hot hand(s) will earn a look sooner or later, because the back end of
this rotation is complete junk.
Los Angeles Angels
- Joe Saunders
- Dustin Moseley
- Jered Weaver
- Shane Loux
- TBD
Week 2 two-starter(s): Perhaps Weaver. The tragic loss of Nick Adenhart puts this turn up in the air.
Starters on the
DL: John Lackey (elbow), Ervin Santana (elbow) and Kelvim Escobar
(shoulder). They might all be back by the start of May. Escobar first
and then Lackey and Santana around May 1. Escobar begins a Class A rehab
assignment this weekend and might only need a couple of starts before a
late April return. Watch him closely.
Starters to watch in the
minors: Jordan Walden, Sean O'Sullivan, Anthony Ortega and Trevor Reckling. Ortega is a potential No. 5 starter in Fantasy Week 2
(April 13-19), but Walden is the more elite talent, if the Angels choose
to rush him to the majors. They might have to.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Week 2 two-starter(s): Billingsley. You have to figure he will be
a must-start. He should dominate at San Diego on Wednesday.
Starters
on the DL: Jason Schmidt (shoulder)
and Claudio Vargas (elbow). Schmidt
could position himself for a May return, at best. Vargas is not worth
stashing and is out for an extended period, if not the whole season.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Joshua Lindblom
and Scott Elbert. Lindblom is an elite
prospect who is a must-watch in all formats.
Milwaukee Brewers
- Jeff Suppan
- Yovani Gallardo
- Manny Parra
- Braden Looper
- Dave Bush
Week 2 two-starter(s): Gallardo. He will be a must-start in all
leagues.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters to watch in
the minors: Jeremy Jeffress. He
should help out the rotation before the end of the season.
Minnesota Twins
- Francisco Liriano
- Nick Blackburn
- Kevin Slowey
- Glen Perkins
- R.A. Dickey or Scott Baker coming off the DL to start April 15
Week 2 two-starter(s): Slowey and Perkins. The Twins don't have a
day off in the season's first two weeks. Slowey and Perkins are both
pitching for must-start status Wednesday and Thursday vs. Seattle.
Expect them to attain it.
Starters on the DL: Baker (shoulder)
and Boof Bonser (shoulder). Baker might
miss just one turn in the rotation, parhaps slotting April 15 vs.
Toronto. Track his news in the coming days. Bonser is out for the season
and can be ignored.
Starters to watch in the minors: Anthony Swarzak and Kevin Mulvey.
Those are two pretty close pitching prospects who could step in and
contribute if there is an early injury.
New York Mets
Week 2 two-starter(s): Pelfrey. He stands to be a must-start
option, opening CitiField against the lowly Padres on April 13.
Starters
on the DL: Tim Redding (shoulder).
He will be no better than a May returnee.
Starters to watch in the
minors: Freddy Garcia, Jonathon Niese and Bradley Holt. They
will be needed at some point. None of them are all that promising yet.
New York Yankees
- CC Sabathia
- Chien-Ming Wang
- A.J. Burnett
- Andy Pettitte
- Joba Chamberlain
Week 2 two-starter(s): Wang and Burnett. They will pitch
Wednesday and Thursday. We think they will be at least advisable, if not
must-start options.
Starters on the DL: None.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Phil Hughes
and Ian Kennedy. Hughes is almost
certain to be needed this year. Kennedy might be, too. We expect they
both will dominate Triple-A for at least the season's first two months.
Oakland Athletics
Week 2 two-starter(s): Eveland and maybe Anderson. Eveland will
be pitching for two-start sleeper status Wednesday at Anaheim. Anderson
could be a two-start pitcher if the A's decide to skip No. 5 starter
Outman next week.
Starters on the DL: Justin Duchscherer (elbow). He is out until at least mid-May.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Sean Gallagher
is in the bullpen to start the season, so Gio Gonzalez is the defacto No. 6 starter in Triple-A. Michael Ynoa and Vin Mazzaro also
could prove useful this year. Something tells us these guys will be
called upon before they are truly ready. Cahill and Anderson were
rushed, but at least they have elite talent that can help them win early.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cole Hamels
- Brett Myers
- Jamie Moyer
- Joe Blanton
- Chan Ho Park
Week 2 two-starter(s): Moyer. His supporting cast and first
matchup at Washington make him a nice sleeper.
Starters on the DL:
None.
Starters to watch in the minors: J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Joe Savery, Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Drabek.
There is depth in this system, but they haven't really needed much of it
the past few seasons. Carrasco is the real elite prospect in their
group, despite his so-so spring.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Paul Maholm
- Ian Snell
- Zach Duke
- Ross Ohlendorf
- Jeff Karstens
Week 2 two-starter(s): Duke. He starts a potential rebound season
Wednesday at STL. He could prove useful for deeper formats if he debuts
nicely.
Starters on the DL: Phil Dumatrait (shoulder). The healthy Pirates pitchers aren't worth
stashing, so the injured one shouldn't be either.
Starters to
watch in the minors: Brad Lincoln,
Bryan Morris and Daniel McCutchen.
These guys will get a look later this year, but they are hardly worth
tracking in the minors at this point.
San Diego Padres
Week 2 two-starter(s): Silva. The rookie will be making his debut
Wednesday and could earn two-start sleeper status. He is old for a
rookie, but the Mexican import could be a surprise for owners in deeper
leagues.
Starters on the DL: Cha Seung Baek (forearm). Mark Prior
(shoulder) and Tim Stauffer (shoulder)
were merely assigned to the minors for the start of the season. Baek is
out at least a few weeks, so he will try to prove healthy enough for a
late April return.
Starters to watch in the minors: Cesar Carrillo, Nick Schmidt, Josh Geer, Wade LeBlanc and William Inman. We list a lot of options here because the Padres will
have openings galore this season. We don't really like these guys all
that much right now.
San Francisco Giants
Week 2 two-starter(s): Johnson. He pitches Wednesday and could
earn must-start, two-start status.
Starters on the DL: Noah Lowry (shoulder, elbow) is out until at least mid-May. He might
never be the same at this point. The Giants don't seem to be counting on
him.
Starters to watch in the minors: Madison Bumgarner, Timothy Alderson
and Kevin Pucetas. No one in baseball
has a better pair of elite arms down on the farm. Bumgarner and Alderson
are both potential front-line guys. That will be a sick rotation in a
couple of years: Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Alderson and Zito. That
rotation will win a championship if it stays healthy.
Seattle Mariners
Week 2 two-starter(s): Silva. He will prove unworthy of a roster
spot in Week 1, especially since he will get the Angels and Tigers in
Week 2.
Starters on the DL: Ryan Feierabend (elbow surgery) is out for the season.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Phillippe Aumont
and Gaby Hernandez. Aumont is moving to
relief full time and the team says he can be on the "really fast track."
That sounds like he could be Brandon Morrow's
setup man by June 1. Watch the Canadian flamethrower.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Adam Wainwright
- Kyle Lohse
- Todd Wellemeyer
- Chris Carpenter
- Joel Pineiro
Week 2 two-starter(s): Wellemeyer and Carpenter. They will pitch
Wednesday and Thursday, but we think only Carpenter will prove to be a
must-start option.
Starters on the DL: Jaime Garcia (elbow). He is out for the season after Tommy John
surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: Jess Todd, Clayton Mortensen and Mitchell Boggs. The Cardinals might not need them, but Todd is one that
could force his way up in the second half.
Tampa Bay Rays
- James Shields
- Scott Kazmir
- Matt Garza
- Andy Sonnanstine
- Jeff Niemann
Week 2 two-starter(s): Kazmir and Garza. They will pitch
Wednesday and Thursday and have a chance to earn must-start status. The
Rays won't get a day off until Monday, April 20.
Starters on the
DL: None.
Starters to watch in the minors: David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. Price will be the most-watched minor-leaguer in
Fantasy for the season's first couple of weeks. It won't be long before
he is up and dominating for Fantasy owners. Davis and Hellickson likely
have to wait until spring 2010.
Texas Rangers
- Kevin Millwood
- Vicente Padilla
- Kris Benson
- Brandon McCarthy
- Matt Harrison
Week 2 two-starter(s): Padilla. He pitches Wednesday and could
earn sleeper status vs. lowly BAL and KC.
Starters on the DL: Eric Hurley (shoulder surgery). He is out for the season.
Starters
to watch in the minors: Neftali Feliz,
Derek Holland, Michael Main, Tommy Hunter, Thomas Diamond and Kasey Kiker. They
might struggle in the majors, but the Rangers are strong and deep down
on the farm. Feliz is the most elite of their prospects.
Toronto Blue Jays
Week 2 two-starter(s): Litsch and Romero. They will go Wednesday
and Thursday and could prove sleeper worthy at MIN and vs. OAK the
following turns.
Starters on the DL: Dustin McGowan (shoulder), Shaun Marcum
(elbow) and Casey Janssen (shoulder).
Marcum is ruled out for the year, while McGowan hopes to be a factor in
the second half. Janssen could be ready earlier in the first half, but
he will be a high-risk AL-only starting pitcher.
Starters to watch
in the minors: Brad Mills, Brett Cecil and Robert Ray. They
would be rushing these guys to bring them up this year, but there are
opportunities in this injury-hit rotation this season.
Washington Nationals
- John Lannan
- Scott Olsen
- Daniel Cabrera
- Shairon Martis
- Jordan Zimmermann
Week 2 two-starter(s): Cabrera. It will be tough for him to earn
even sleeper status after his Wednesday start. He will draw PHI and FLA
on his next turns.
Starters on the DL: Matt Chico (elbow). He is out until at least late July after Tommy
John surgery.
Starters to watch in the minors: Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker and
Colton Willems. It will take a real good rookie season by Zimmermann to
be useful in more than deeper NL-only leagues and this trio is nowhere
near Zimmermann's class of pitching prospect.
You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball pitching questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Pitching Forecaster in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.