Beware the ides to May. They are soon upon us in Fantasy and major league organizations. We won't be slaying Julius Caesar, but super prospects will be threatening to stab organizations in their bank accounts.

It's the time of the year when we see elite prospects starting to arrive, even if June 1 is the safest bet. The important note is the difference in money a young superstar will make a few years from now is a lot different than if they are called up in early May vs. mid-May or later.

Fantasy fans, we reintroduce to you the "Super Two" phenomenon. It has perplexed Fantasy owners in the modern era who anxious wait for the elite callups.

In baseball, you control players for three years before arbitration and three years of arbitration before they are eligible to file for free agency in Year 7. A player becomes eligible for free agency a year earlier if they fit in the category of "Super Two."

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo did the best job yet at clarifying it Thursday morning, pointing to three case studies from the 2007 season who qualify as Fantasy stars: Tim Lincecum, Mark Reynolds and Ryan J. Braun.

While Braun might be the best Fantasy player of that trio, it is Lincecum who makes seven times more than him and almost 11 times more than Reynolds this season.

These are three early-round Fantasy picks this spring in Year 4, so why the huge discrepency in salary? Lincecum was called up before mid-May (three years ago Thursday to be exact), while Reynolds arrived 10 days later and Braun nine days later than that.

The timing of Lincecum's call-up put him in the top 17 percent of his class in terms of service time and forcing him into salary arbitration a year earlier than Reynolds or Braun. Mayo reports: "The cut-off for the top 17 percent has been around two years, 130 days of total service, though the days fluctuate from year to year."

That crucial time is mid-May. Ah, we need to beware like Caesar.

Lincecum was in his second year of arbitration, where salaries tend to spike, and he was signed to a long-term deal. Braun and Reynolds are in multiyear deals, too, but they make far less in what is their first year of arbitration. Just a few days and weeks difference in arrival date can make millions of dollars difference in salaries in Years 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Last week we broke down 10 players who could get May callups: Starlin Castro, Chris Tillman, Michael Stanton, Buster Posey, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Cahill and Brad Bergesen. Of those, Tillman, Posey, Cahill and Bergesen already have some service time, and no organization would really be worried about the future salaries of Cahill or Bergesen.

So, let's safely assume the red-hot Stanton, Strasburg (starting in Triple-A on Friday), Chapman, Santana and Arrieta have no chance of arriving in the next 1-2 weeks. Calling those players up before then will cost the Marlins, Nationals, Reds, Indians and Orioles -- not exactly sprend-thrift organizations -- millions more in years 2013-16. The organizations won't take the risk.

"When I had good clubs, it never crossed my mind," former GM and MLB Network analyst John Hart told MLB.com. "When I felt we were growing or building and a guy could use more development time, I'll admit, I did pay more attention to it because he was going to fit for a longer period of time."

So, among those rookie debuts already in the majors and headed for Super Two status and huge paydays a year earlier: Jason Heyward, Mike Leake, Ike Davis and Justin Smoak. Those latter two arrived in mid-April because of the struggling placeholders on hopeful contenders. The first two made the team out of spring training and they expect to pay the premium a year sooner.

"If your club is a competitive club and you think this player is going to be an integral part of a competitive team, I'm not sure how you face the other 24 players, the staff, the fans and say, 'We're going to keep him in the minor leagues,'" Braves GM Frank Wren told MLB.com. "I can't do that. We'll figure out his contract way down the road."

Among the most-owned minor leaguers on CBSSports.com, only the Giants' Posey, the Rays' Desmond Jennings and perhaps the Cubs' Castro are a part of organizations with more to lose than just dollars a few years from now. We can safely assume those players are not ready.

Further, the Super Two phenomenon can help explain why the likes of the Jays' Brett Wallace and Oakland's Chris C. Carter haven't been considered for a promotion just yet.

That will all change in 10 days, if teams want to make some educated guess on the 17 percent of the debuting class of 2010, or after June 1 if the teams just want to be more certain they aren't costing themselves a year of control.

Ah, those ides of May, beware. (Yes, we know Caesar was slain in March, not May.)

A shout out to relievers

If you are in a deeper league that values middle relievers, pay some special attention to the hot streaks of Milwaukee farmhand Zach Braddock, the Rangers' Tanner Scheppers and the Cubs' Andrew Cashner. These guys could be impact relief callups and potential sleepers for saves down the road.

Braddock is the closest to the majors and the struggles of Trevor Hoffman makes him a potential closer before the end of the year. The Rangers are toggling between Frank Francisco and Neftali Feliz, so Scheppers is less likely a candidate for saves before the year is out. Additionally, the Cubs will likely juggle Carlos Marmol and Carlos Zambrano as their primary options for saves. Cashner, though, could arrive and allow Zambrano to return to the rotation late this year, perhaps.

It is tough to wait on relief prospects, and all three could start long term, but any arrival this year would be in the bullpen right now.

Prospect watch

Every week we break down all the minor leaguers who are owned in at least 1 percent of our Fantasy leagues. This will be your essential guide to unearthing the elite prospects before they hit the big time.

CBSSports.com's most-owned minor leaguers
Player POS TM Own% Player POS TM Own% Player POS TM Own%
Stephen Strasburg SP WAS 87 Juan Francisco 3B CIN 3 Hak-Ju Lee SS CHC 1
Aroldis Chapman SP CIN 74 Josh Reddick LF BOS 3 Daniel McCutchen SP PIT 1
Buster Posey C SF 45 Chris Withrow SP LA 3 Jeremy Jeffress SP MIL 1
Carlos Santana C CLE 42 Chris Marrero LF WAS 3 Slade Heathcott CF NYY 1
Michael Stanton RF FLA 34 Jaff Decker OF SD 3 Michael Pineda SP SEA 1
Pedro Alvarez 3B PIT 29 Matt Moore SP TB 3 Angel Villalona 3B SF 1
Chris Davis 1B TEX 25 Hector Rondon SP CLE 3 Joe Savery SP PHI 1
Chris Iannetta C COL 25 Tony Sanchez C PIT 2 Chris C. Carter LF NYM 1
Madison Bumgarner SP SF 24 Brandon McCarthy SP TEX 2 Sammy Gervacio RP HOU 1
Desmond Jennings CF TB 23 Alex White SP CLE 2 Roger Kieschnick LF SF 1
Alex Gordon 3B KC 23 Ethan Martin SP LA 2 Noel Arguelles SP KC 1
Chris Tillman SP BAL 21 Adeiny Hechavarria SS TOR 2 Logan Forsythe 3B SD 1
Brett Wallace 3B TOR 19 James Darnell 3B SD 2 Lance Lynn SP STL 1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C TEX 19 Josh Lindblom SP LA 2 Chuck Lofgren SP MIL 1
Starlin Castro SS CHC 18 Jemile Weeks 2B OAK 2 Kam Mickolio RP BAL 1
Jeremy Hellickson SP TB 18 Simon Castro SP SD 2 Dellin Betances SP NYY 1
Jesus Montero C NYY 17 Mike Minor SP ATL 2 Zack Wheeler SP SF 1
Kyle Drabek SP TOR 16 Hank Conger C ANA 2 Matt Maloney SP CIN 1
Chris C. Carter 1B OAK 16 Nick Hagadone SP CLE 2 Mark Rogers SP MIL 1
Drew Storen RP WAS 14 Zach Britton SP BAL 2 Ryan Strieby 1B DET 1
Jake Arrieta SP BAL 14 Scott Elbert RP LA 2 Troy Patton SP BAL 1
Domonic Brown RF PHI 13 Danny Valencia 3B MIN 2 Sean O'Sullivan SP ANA 1
Michael Taylor LF OAK 12 Mike Trout CF ANA 2 Jeanmar Gomez SP CLE 1
Dustin Ackley 1B SEA 12 Jason Knapp SP CLE 2 Kevin Pucetas SP SF 1
Martin Perez SP TEX 10 Adrian Cardenas SS OAK 2 Brad Kilby RP OAK 1
Logan Morrison 1B FLA 10 Jason Donald SS CLE 2 Josh D. Fields RP SEA 1
Derek Holland SP TEX 9 Nick Weglarz RF CLE 2 Rick VandenHurk SP FLA 1
Christian Friedrich SP COL 9 Beau Mills 1B CLE 2 Tyson Gillies RF PHI 1
Daniel Hudson SP CHW 9 Trevor Reckling RP ANA 2 David Purcey SP TOR 1
Yonder Alonso 1B CIN 8 Brad Lincoln SP PIT 2 Wilin Rosario C COL 1
Fernando Martinez OF NYM 8 Miguel Sano SS MIN 2 Josh Thole C NYM 1
Casey Kelly SP BOS 8 Brett Jackson CF CHC 2 Ivan DeJesus SS LA 1
Mike Moustakas 3B KC 7 Jose Iglesias SS BOS 2 Jess Todd RP CLE 1
Josh Bell 3B BAL 7 Sean West SP FLA 2 Austin Romine C NYY 1
Tim Beckham SS TB 7 Thomas Neal LF SF 2 Matt Sweeney 3B TB 1
Michael Brantley CF CLE 7 Vin Mazzaro SP OAK 2 Chad James SP FLA 1
Freddie Freeman 1B ATL 7 Zach Stewart SP TOR 2 William Myers C KC 1
Tyler Flowers C CHW 7 Jordan Walden SP ANA 2 Shairon Martis SP WAS 1
Jason Castro C HOU 7 Jeff Samardzija RP CHC 2 Kevin Mulvey SP ARI 1
Jarrod Parker SP ARI 6 Jared Mitchell CF CHW 2 Adam Miller SP CLE 1
Jim R. Johnson RP BAL 6 Travis Wood SP CIN 2 Zach McAllister SP NYY 1
Tommy Hunter SP TEX 6 Alex Liddi 3B SEA 2 Neil Walker 3B PIT 1
Jacob Turner SP DET 6 Mike Jacobs 1B NYM 2 Matthew Hobgood SP BAL 1
Josh Vitters 3B CHC 6 Emilio Bonifacio 3B FLA 2 Conor M. Gillaspie 3B SF 1
Lars Anderson 1B BOS 5 Jake McGee SP TB 2 Andrew Lambo LF LA 1
Tanner Scheppers SP TEX 5 Kyle Gibson SP MIN 2 Peter Bourjos CF ANA 1
J.R. Towles C HOU 5 Arodys Vizcaino SP ATL 2 Donnie Veal RP PIT 1
Aaron Crow SP KC 5 James McDonald RP LA 2 David Cooper 1B TOR 1
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B CLE 5 Jordan Lyles SP HOU 2 Wes Hodges 3B CLE 1
Brett Lawrie 2B MIL 5 Trevor May SP PHI 1 Angel Salome C MIL 1
Todd Frazier OF CIN 5 Will Inman SP SD 1 Jay Jackson SP CHC 1
Jack Cust LF OAK 5 Danny Cortes SP SEA 1 Chris Valaika SS CIN 1
Phillippe Aumont SP PHI 5 Antonio Bastardo SP PHI 1 Cole Rohrbough SP ATL 1
Dee Gordon SS LA 5 William Rowell 3B BAL 1 Andrew Brackman SP NYY 1
Tyler Matzek SP COL 5 Wilkin Ramirez LF DET 1 Travis D'Arnaud C TOR 1
Michael Montgomery SP KC 5 Hector Gomez SS COL 1 Josh Anderson CF CIN 1
Brandon Allen 1B ARI 5 Kyle Skipworth C FLA 1 Gorkys Hernandez CF PIT 1
Aaron Hicks OF MIN 5 Jiovanni Mier SS HOU 1 Allen Craig RF STL 1
Timothy Alderson SP PIT 5 Rich J. Hill SP STL 1 Michael Main SP TEX 1
Carlos Carrasco SP CLE 5 Christian Bethancourt C ATL 1 Deolis Guerra SP MIN 1
Dayan Viciedo 3B CHW 4 Brandon Snyder 1B BAL 1 Casey Weathers RP COL 1
J.P. Arencibia C TOR 4 Daniel Espinosa SS WAS 1 Glen Perkins SP MIN 1
Taylor Teagarden C TEX 4 Daniel Schlereth RP DET 1 Daryl Jones CF STL 1
Julio Teheran SP ATL 4 Micah Hoffpauir 1B CHC 1 Fautino De Los Santos RP OAK 1
Eric Hosmer 1B KC 4 Aaron Cunningham RF SD 1 Brandon Erbe SP BAL 1
Michael Saunders LF SEA 4 Ruben Tejada SS NYM 1 Brad Mills SP TOR 1
Casey Crosby SP DET 4 Wladimir Balentien LF CIN 1 Matt Tuiasosopo 2B SEA 1
Michael Bowden RP BOS 4 Michael Burgess RF WAS 1 Scott Lewis SP CLE 1
Hank Blalock 1B TB 4 Jordan Danks CF CHW 1 Mitch Moreland CF TEX 1
Donovan Tate CF SD 4 Jonathan LuCroy C MIL 1 Bryan D. Anderson C STL 1
Derek Norris C WAS 4 Anthony Slama RP MIN 1 Engel Beltre CF TEX 1
Michael Ynoa SP OAK 3 Kasey Kiker SP TEX 1 Jose Ceda RP FLA 1
Wilmer Flores SS NYM 3 Aaron Miller SP LA 1 Zach Braddock RP MIL 1
Armando Galarraga SP DET 3 Bradley Holt SP NYM 1 Reese Havens SS NYM 1
Ryan Westmoreland OF BOS 3 Eric Arnett SP MIL 1 Ryan Tucker SP FLA 1
Andrew Miller SP FLA 3 Mark Melancon RP NYY 1 Chad C. Jenkins SP TOR 1
Carlos Triunfel SS SEA 3 Max Stassi C OAK 1 Anthony Rizzo 1B BOS 1
Jose Tabata LF PIT 3 Ryan Kalish CF BOS 1 Anthony Swarzak SP MIN 1
Aaron Poreda RP SD 3 Greg Halman RF SEA 1 Brent Morel 3B CHW 1
Matt Dominguez 3B FLA 3 Chris Nelson SS COL 1 Carlos Peguero RF SEA 1
Grant Green SS OAK 3 A.J. Pollock CF ARI 1 John Mayberry LF PHI 1
Shelby Miller SP STL 3 Andrew J. Carpenter SP PHI 1 Mike Carp 1B SEA 1
Ben Revere CF MIN 3 Alexander Colome SP TB 1
Andrew Cashner SP CHC 3 Bobby Borchering 3B ARI 1

Rookie watch

Top AL rookies to date

  1. Austin Jackson, OF, DET -- Even if it won't last, he has been way, way better than Curtis Granderson has for the Yankees.
  2. Wade Davis, SP, TB -- Other Rays pitching prospects arrived with more hype, but few have been this good right away.
  3. Neftali Feliz, RP, TEX -- He has kept the closer's role through thick and thin and there doesn't seem to be a change coming.
  4. Brian Matusz, SP, BAL -- It wasn't his strikeout rate we liked, but he is leading all rookies with 31 Ks through Wednesday.
  5. Brennan Boesch, OF, DET -- An injury opened a door this potential slugger doesn't look ready to close anytime soon.

Top NL rookies to date

  1. Jason Heyward, OF, ATL -- He has gotten over his first significant slump in the majors; this year's Braun-impact rookie.
  2. Jaime Garcia, SP, STL -- We aren't sure how long he can sustain this dominance, but you have to start him in all leagues.
  3. David Freese, 3B, STL -- Hot streak makes him an add in all leagues and he might even be a must-start when going well.
  4. Mike Leake, SP, CIN -- He commands his breaking stuff like a five-year veteran; he isn't lightning but he's still special.
  5. Ian Desmond, SS, WAS -- He is a bit streaky, but it is looking like his career is just getting started as a Fantasy SS gem.

Newbie needs

The Durantula: I've got the top waiver spot in my 14-team keeper league and I'm holding out for Bryce Harper. Any idea when we can expect him in the player pool? Is last year's date of May 26 for Strasburg a reasonable reference point?

Emack: Well, no. We won't be adding any of the first-round picks until they official sign with major league clubs after the draft. We might revisit adding players who are drafted in Round 1 right after the First Year Player Draft, because of the unlikelihood they wouldn't sign, but as of now, CBSSports.com has no plans to add drafted players until they sign with a major league team. That was the policy installed after Strasburg last year.

Mike: I had a question about outfielder Carlos Peguero for Seattle playing at West Tenn. Last year he put up great numbers in High A and this year great numbers at Double-A; yet, Alex Liddi gets the attention and Peguero has outplayed him the past two years. Why does this guy get no mention?

Emack: Well, a lot of the mainstream prospect knowledge comes from Baseball America and their annual rankings. They didn't list Peguero in their top 30 Mariners prospects going into the spring. Peguero's power streak gave him an appearance in their Prospect Hot Sheet last Friday, which led to him getting added in 1 percent of CBSSports.com's leagues. He is managing his strikeout rate and it isn't coming at the expense of power. We have to figure Peguero can make a Chris Davis-like rise to prominence this summer now.

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