Hopefully, you didn’t fall to 0-1 this week, but if you did, it’s no big deal. It’s a long, long Fantasy season, and one bad week isn’t enough reason to worry. Let’s just make sure it’s not two in a row. Here’s what you need for Week 2 (April 10-16) of the Fantasy Baseball season.
The Braves play just five times
We’ll start with a look at the schedule for the week, which brings only bad news for the Braves. They open with two games in Miami on Tuesday and Wednesday, and close with three at home vs. the Padres. The matchups aren’t bad, but as the only team with five games on the schedule -- and a lineup hardly stacked with must-start guys to begin with -- you probably won’t have much use for the Braves in Week 2.
Matt Kemp and Freddie Freeman can do enough in a game or two to justify their starting spot, but that’s probably it for this lineup, so don’t feel bad about leaving the likes of Dansby Swanson or Ender Inciarte on your bench.
5 games: ATL
6 games: ARI, BAL, BOS, CHC, CHW, CLE, HOU, KC, LAA, LAD, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYY, OAK, PHI, PIT, SD, SEA, STL, TB, TEX, TOR, WAS
7 games: CIN, COL, DET, NYM, SF
The Brewers play six games, but who knows what that means?
Before the season, we identified the Brewers as one of our favorite teams for breakouts, with a bevy of interesting talents up and down the roster. This was a team full of guys who showed power and/or speed, and they play in one of the best parks in baseball for hitters, so it wasn’t hard to get excited about them. Especially once the cream rose to the top.
However, as we’re seeing right now, things are a bit complicated in Milwaukee. 12 different players have started in the team’s first five games, and with Ryan Braun and Orlando Arcia getting Thursday off, only Travis Shaw and Jonathan Villar will have started each of the team’s first four games. Shaw appears to have earned the shot to play every day, even against lefties, and Villar’s positional versatility helps keep him in the lineup everyday coming off a breakout season.
Beyond that, it looks like everyone’s role could be up in the air. Sure, Kirk Nieuwenhuis may not play regularly, and the catchers hardly matter for the vast majority of Fantasy players, but that still seven players competing for four spots on any given day. Domingo Santana, Eric Thames, Keon Broxton, Hernan Perez … There’s no shortage of guys who could be intriguing Fantasy options, but until the playing time gets settled it might be best to avoid this situation.
The two-start options are much more interesting this week
If you loaded up on aces, Week 1 probably went very, very well for you, because you likely got two starts from each of them. That’s a nice bonus for that specific draft strategy. However, if you were like me, and eschewed the higher-end pitchers, Week 2 is where you start to make your comeback, and it’s when the options for streaming starters get a bit more useful as well.
We’ll rank the two-start pitchers for Week 2 on Friday, but some of the more interesting non-ace options you can look at are Wily Peralta, Alex Cobb, Brandon Finnegan, Jharel Cotton, and maybe even Luis Severino, who gets two chances to start to prove he was worth the hype as a prospect.
Stats aren’t quite trustworthy yet
I wrote about this topic earlier in the week, but I mean something different this time. We have a bunch of granular pitching numbers to pour over after every game, the latest of which is MLB’s StatCast-based data over at BaseballSavant.com. They have a live tracker for pitch data for every pitch thrown, but there still seem to be some kinks to work out.
For instance, according to their data, Dylan Bundy threw 37 changeups on Wednesday night; according to Bundy, he threw five. That should get ironed out down the line, but it’s a reminder that even advanced stats come with a grain of salt early in the season.
We could start seeing some bullpen changes
Most closers aren’t pitching for their jobs in the first week of the season, but that might be changing soon. Here are some closer situations you need to keep an eye on this week:
- Roberto Osuna could be back from his neck injury in Week 2, so don’t be afraid to drop Jason Grilli if you picked him up as a flier.
- Sam Dyson has some job security thanks to his strong track record, but he is certainly risking it with his results early on, having allowed eight runs in his first inning of work to open the season. Matt Bush is the obvious candidate in the event Dyson loses his job.
- Jeanmar Gomez isn’t going to have nearly as much job security as Dyson, and after surrendering two runs in his first save chance, he might be another shaky outing or two from losing his job. I’m not sure Hector Neris isn’t the guy to own here, even before Gomez gives up the ghost.
- The Reds were seemingly looking to give Michael Lorenzen a six-out save Wednesday, but he struggled enough that Raisel Iglesias had to come in to work the ninth for the save. They don’t have a set closer, but circumstances could quickly change that.
Are hot starts turning into breakouts?
One week doesn’t tell us a whole lot about what has changed for a player, and one more week doesn’t necessarily change that. However, when it comes to real breakouts, you don’t want to sit on your hands for too long and miss something big. If Kendall Graveman, Travis Shaw, Nomar Mazara or Gerardo Parra keep playing well next week, don’t wait too long to snag them. Figuring out who is worth your time is important, but sitting on your hands for too long can cause you to really miss out. And, if you want to buy into Miguel Sano or George Springer’s elite potential, you might want to do so soon, before their owner feels they can’t afford to trade them.
These slow starters could be fighting for your roster spot
- On the one hand, drafting Michael Pineda and then getting upset about a few bad starts is like going outside on a sunny day and getting mad that the sun is too bright. However, at this point, the onus is on Pineda to prove he can be as good as the peripherals suggest, and if he doesn’t turn it around soon, it will be hard to keep him around, strikeouts be damned.
- Patrick Corbin’s got that RP eligibility going for him, but coming off a season with a 5.15 ERA, Corbin needs to prove he’s worth your time. Another bad start or two will be proof.
- Matt Moore still generates some hype due to name value, but he was pretty mediocre last season, and even during his best pre-Tommy John season, sported a 1.30 WHIP. Pitching in San Francisco should help keep his ERA down, but if he can’t get back to being a strikeout-per-inning guy, there isn’t much to like here.
- Jharel Cotton is an interesting young pitcher with a skill set that could play up in Oakland, but he isn’t exactly the most proven guy after 29 1/3 innings last season. If he can rack up whiffs and keep the walks down, you’ll be able to live with his inevitable homer issues, but he proved a bit too hittable in his first outing, and doesn’t have the defensive or offensive support behind him to make up for that.
