I was already planning on writing about starting pitchers this week as I start to wrap my head around the tall task of actually ranking them for 2025, and the Tigers gave me an easy topic to hit on Monday when they announced the promotion of top pitching prospect Jackson Jobe.
The Tigers are in the midst of a frankly astonishing run for an American League Wild Card spot, having had odds as low as 9.9% to make the playoffs as recently as Sept. 15, per FanGraphs' playoff odds, to over 70% as of Monday. And to help that run, they are calling up Jobe, the top pitching prospect in baseball for the final week of the season. But, while Jobe is someone we think has superstar upside in the long run, he's probably not someone you need to run out and add for Fantasy this week.
But he is absolutely a name you need to know for 2025.
The Tigers are calling Jobe up to pitch out of the bullpen, adding another live arm to what has been arguably the team's biggest strong all season long. The Tigers have the sixth-best bullpen ERA in the majors this season, led by the late-inning combination of closer Jason Foley, Tyler Holston, and WIll Vest, among others. Jobe will likely slot into the late-inning hierarchy somewhere below the closer's role -- especially with Foley pitching well lately, allowing just four earned runs in 21.1 innings since the start of September.
If Jobe hits the ground running, he could pair with Holton to dramatically shorten games down the stretch and into the playoffs (if they get there), giving them two potential shutdown relievers who are comfortable going multiple innings at a time. That could be very potent for the Tigers and would give Jobe experience pitching in live action against major-leaguers in high-leverage situations after the Triple-A season has already ended, and he would otherwise be sitting at home. That could be a big deal for his development.
But it probably won't matter for Fantasy. Not unless the team decides to be even more aggressive and give Jobe legitimate high-leverage innings in the ninth inning immediately. It's not out of the question they get there quickly, but with just six games left in the season, I'd be surprised if it happened before the postseason – though he could be an absolute weapon there, the same way David Price was in the Rays' World Series run back in 2008.
So, the bigger deal here from a Fantasy perspective is that we're going to get a chance to see Jobe pitch against major-leaguers before he tries to take a rotation role next season. If this audition goes well, it almost certainly guarantees Jobe a spot in the starting five to open next season, something that otherwise might not have been a sure thing after he made just two starts at Triple-A this season.
And that's certainly something to get excited about. Jobe has had some trouble staying healthy as a professional, though he has avoided any arm or upper body issues this season, instead missing time with a hamstring injury earlier in 2024. But when he's been on the mound, he has been electric, striking out 261 batters in 233 innings with a 2.97 ERA. He's been even better at preventing runs this season (2.36), though his 25.6% strikeout rate across three levels is merely more good than dominant.
But there's every reason to think he has dominant upside. For one thing, it's worth noting that Jobe has basically had to reinvent himself as a pitcher on the fly since becoming a pro. His calling card originally was a high-spin, big-breaking curveball that scouts loved, but hitters generally spit on as he struggled to throw consistent strikes with it before scrapping it altogether after a back injury in 2023. When he came back, he came armed with a high-80s cutter and a low-80s sweeper, both of which rate out well by Stuff+ despite being relatively new pitches for him, in large part thanks to that ability to generate huge spin that he showed with the curveball.
Out of the bullpen, Jobe figures to sit even higher than his 96.5 mph average fastball velocity from his two Triple-A starts, and he might not need his full arsenal to be a weapon in short bursts, given how dominant the fastball could be as a result. But he does have a full arsenal, with a changeup that has about 12 mph of velocity separation with the fastball and has improved to the point where he throws it nearly as often as his two breaking balls.
Jobe might not need the full arsenal out of the bullpen, but it's there, and it is starter quality. He's been fast-tracked from day one and is going to end up making his MLB debut after just three partial seasons in the minors and less than 250 total innings. That raises some questions about what his workload might look like in 2025, though he should get close to 100 innings this season if the Tigers make the playoffs, and that should be enough to project something like 150 next season.
And they could be 150 really good innings. There will be some bumps in the road along the way – just ask basically any pitching prospect except Paul Skenes – and Jobe's injury history and youth will make him a poor bet for even those 150 innings. But if Jobe looks dominant in the bullpen, there's going to be a lot of hype around him in Fantasy Baseball drafts in 2025. And, since he'll have RP eligibility, he could be someone to target, especially early on in H2H points leagues in a year where SPaRP options seem like they'll be lacking.
Let's hope he gives us something to get excited about over the next week because Jobe could play his way into top-50 consideration among starters for 2025 if he dominates.
