I need more time to figure out the outfield for 2025. Luckily, I've got like six months to get there, but I wanted to at least have a rough draft ready to go by the end of this week so I could focus on pitchers next week – I wrote about some way-too-early infield rankings takeaways last week – but it was too tall of a task.
Outfield is, obviously, the toughest position to rank among the hitter positions because it's the biggest position. But it's also the toughest to rank because there are just so many tough players to figure out at the position. Oh, it's easy enough at the top, with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Mookie Betts ranking among the obvious, no-doubt first-rounders. But after that, you've got to figure out where to put Ronald Acuña, Kyle Tucker, and Fernando Tatis amid their injury-wrecked seasons, Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez amid hugely disappointing seasons, and breakouts from the likes of Jarren Duran, Jackson Chourio, and more.
So, yeah, I need more time. I'm hoping to have an initial 2025 rankings list for each position ready for you by the end of the regular season, but the outfield is going to require some extra thought. And today, I'm going to give you some examples of why I need some extra time, so before we get to recapping Thursday's MLB action, here are five outfielders I'm having the most trouble figuring out how to rank ahead of 2025:
Ronald Acuña, Braves
When Acuña tore his ACL in 2021, he ended up returning a little over nine months later. If he follows a similar timetable this time around, he'll be ready for Opening Day in 2025, as nine months removed from his late-May injury would be late February. There should be plenty of time for Acuña to get back to 100% in time for the season, but how confident can we be that Acuña will be himself? He was struggling mightily before the injury, hitting .250/.351/.365 with just four homers, and the underlying numbers suggested it wasn't just bad luck – Acuña had a .262 expected batting average, and .430 expected slugging percentage, leading to a .348 xwOBA, by far the worst of his career.
And, of course, Acuña struggled the last time he came back from a torn ACL, putting up a .764 OPS with just 15 homers in 119 games, by far the worst numbers of his career. On the other hand, we absolutely know, for a fact, that a healthy, locked-in Acuña is the best player in Fantasy, as he showed in 2023. I'm leaning toward ranking him as a top-five outfielder and a first-round pick for 2025 despite the concerns, but I have to note the concerns. I'm not sure another first-rounder is going to have comparable ones.
Oneil Cruz, Pirates
There's no doubt Cruz still has unbelievable physical tools, and he became the first player besides Giancarlo Stanton to have multiple batted balls of at least 120 mph in a season in the Statcast era – he's done it four times this season. It's true 80-grade raw power, and Cruz has started to put his other prodigious physical tools on display as the season has gone on, going 15 for 15 on stolen base attempts since the All-Star break. He still has easy 30-30 potential, and he has even cut his strikeout rate to a much more manageable 28.4% in the second half of the season, too.
And it's not just because the Pirates have been shielding him from lefties in the second half, as he has also cut his strikeout rate to 27.9% against them in the second half – he struck out 31.7% of the time against them in the first half. Cruz is about to turn 26 but remains pretty raw, and you can look at that one of two ways. First, if you're not a believer, you can say it probably means he's never going to be a finished product, or at least not the kind of finished product we want him to be. If you're an optimist, you can make the case that Cruz is still showing both elite upside and signs of improvement. And hey, he's a top-40 hitter in Roto this season, which isn't so bad for a non-finished product.
Tyler O'Neill, Red Sox
Moving from St. Louis to Boston, O'Neill did exactly what we hoped he would with his park upgrade: He hit a bunch of homers. Thirty-one of them and counting in just 107 games, putting him just three short of his career high with a week left in the season. And while the underlying numbers don't quite back it up (.370 wOBA vs. .346 xwOBA), they're still the second-best of his career. But there are three problems that I can see when it comes to trying to value O'Neill for 2025:
- He missed 40-plus games for the third straight season.
- His strikeout rate has spiked to a career-high 33.4%
- He's a free agent this offseason.
I'm less worried about the third one because O'Neill's power should play up anywhere, and he's actually been better away from Fenway this season. The first one has been a consistent issue for O'Neill, but I'll point out that two of his IL stints seem like total flukes: One was because of a concussion, and the other was for an infection in his leg, costing him 20 games total. The strikeouts are an issue that figures to keep O'Neill's batting average from ever being helpful and could lead to some ugly downside scenarios. But the way the power played up this season was promising enough that I think O'Neill will be worth the risk inside the top 150 picks or so. I'd rather take the chance on him than someone like Adolis Garcia, at least.
Mike Trout, Angels
For one glorious month, we got the old Trout back. He played 29 games and had 10 homers and six steals, putting him on pace for 56 and 34. And then he tore the meniscus in his knee, which ultimately didn't heal the way the Angels hoped, requiring yet another mid-season, season-ending surgery. Trout has now missed at least 43 games in four straight seasons, playing just 41% of the Angels total games in that span. When he's still on the field, Trout remains a difference maker, hitting .276/.376/.575 in that span, and he showed this season he can still run if he wants to. Of course, will he still want to after yet another season wrecked by lower-leg injuries? Probably not, right? So we're left betting on the bat continuing to be a difference maker for a 33-year-old with a long list of health issues in his recent past. A healthy Trout is probably still a top-20 player in Fantasy, and I hope we get one more 150-game season from the greatest player I've ever watched play baseball. But I think we're finally at the point where you can't bet on him unless it costs a pick outside the first 10 rounds.
James Wood, Nationals
Like Cruz, Wood clearly isn't a finished product, so the fact that he's on a 16-homer, 31-steal pace while hitting .265 as a 21-year-old this season is incredibly impressive. Wood hits the ball plenty hard and is a plus athlete, but he's also striking out 29.1% of the time and has one of the highest groundball rates in the majors, holding his power potential back. It's pretty easy to see how Wood could emerge as a 30-30 player who doesn't kill you in batting average as soon as next season, and there are undoubtedly first-round outcomes in his future. And it might be worth just betting on the ceiling with a third-round pick, given how massive it might be. But then you look at an even younger player like Jackson Chourio with a similar ceiling who has actually realized much of his potential as the season has gone on, and it becomes a lot tougher to justify the bet on Wood. I think he's a top-50 pick for the upside, but there's a pretty good chance someone else in every league I play in is going to talk themselves into him at an even higher price. I'm going to have a lot of FOMO.