It seems as if the only thing that can slow Bowden Francis down right now is ninth-inning, no-hit bids. For the second time in four starts, Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning Wednesday, and for the second time, a leadoff homer ended his bid, this time off the bat of Francisco Lindor to spark a late Mets comeback win.
Still, like I said, that's just about the only sign of struggle we've gotten from Francis lately, as he remains absolutely scorching hot. After Wednesday's start. He has allowed just eight earned runs over his past seven starts, a stretch that includes 46 strikeouts in 48 innings of work after this one. The strikeouts weren't there Wednesday, but I want to make one thing clear: It wasn't luck that had him flirting with a no-hitter.
Of the 24 balls in play Francis allowed Wednesday, just three had an expected batting average of .500 or better, and only seven even had an xBA over .200. That's a pretty bonkers amount of weak contact, and it came despite Francis' fastball velocity being down nearly 2.5 mph.
He generated a ton of weak grounders and pop-ups, as he continues to miss the barrel of the bat at an elite level. In the minors, that was always the primary issue for Francis, but the addition of his splitter seems to have left hitters either below or above the ball on their swings.
Is this sustainable? Well, no, of course, a 1.31 ERA isn't sustainable. That goes without saying. But I don't think there's any way I could consider benching Francis at this point.
The tougher question is what this stretch means for Francis' 2025 value. He's a 28-year-old without much of a prospect pedigree and a pretty limited track record of success before the past month or so. Generally speaking, that's a profile you want to bet against in the long run. Of course, that's all dependent on price, right? Seth Lugo isn't a player I'm super interested in betting on long-term, but he was a terrific bet with an ADP of 268.2 in 2024 drafts, and we're seeing that pay off with a top-10 SP season.
Will Francis be as cheap as Lugo? That seems unlikely. Will Francis be as good as Lugo has been this season? I'd strongly bet against it. But that's the archetype here – decent strikeout rate, great command and control, and solid results on balls in play, with a good team backing him up. Francis isn't an ace, and he's unlikely to carry this kind of success over in 2025. But I do think he can be a useful player for 2025, and someone I'd be willing to take a flier on in Fantasy if his price doesn't creep into the top 150 in 2025 drafts.
Thursday's waiver targets
Dean Kremer, SP, Orioles (47%) – The waiver-wire pitcher options haven't been great of late if you're looking for some late-season streamers, but I think Kremer is a perfectly fine target – at least for next week. He's scheduled to face the Yankees and Twins in the final week of the season, which isn't ideal, but he'll get the Giants next week, and I'm fine with trusting Kremer in that one after yet another quality start Wednesday, his fifth in six tries. He had a 2.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the past six starts, with nearly a strikeout per inning, and with the Orioles offense backing him up, I like his chances of coming away with a win next week.
Tommy Edman, OF, Dodgers (58%) – I thought this was going to be a lost season for Edman after his tricky recovery from wrist surgery, but he's making my skepticism look pretty foolish after homering twice in consecutive games Tuesday and Wednesday. Those are the only homers he's hit in 21 games, but even before this stretch, he was hitting .282 and had five steals, so he was finding ways to be productive even without hitting for power. He's looked like Tommy Edman, more or less, and that's always been a must-roster player for Fantasy. Why shouldn't he be now?
Matthew Boyd, SP, Guardians (60%) – Boyd was a little disappointing against the White Sox, mostly because he only made it through 4.1 innings of work before being pulled. But he was let down by his defense some (three unearned runs) and still managed to record nine strikeouts despite not really having the feel for his slider; he generated eight whiffs on his four-seamer and seven on his changeup instead. Trusting Boyd has historically been a pretty precarious position to find yourself in, but he has a 2.18 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with solid peripherals since making his debut six starts ago, and he gets the Twins and Cardinals next week, decent enough matchups. Boyd is a more-than-viable streamer for at least that week; I'm a little more wary of the following week's matchup against the Astros.
Tommy Pham, OF, Royals (19%) – Pham's move to the Royals didn't garner much hype when it happened, but it's been a pretty big deal so far. He has led off all 10 games since joining the Royals and is hitting .317 after going 3 for 4 Wednesday. Pham still has decent power and speed skills, and now he's hitting at the top of a good lineup, so I think he's probably at least a little under-rostered right now.
