Frank Stampfl said something interesting on Tuesday's edition of Fantasy Baseball Today when he said that he was experiencing something like "prospect fatigue" with young hitters who have gotten called up this season. We've hyped them up every time and, almost without fail, they've let us down. Rookies as a whole are sporting just an 83 wRC+ throughout major-league baseball, matching the worst mark for a season since 2014, and guys like Evan Carter, Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio, and Wyatt Langford are just the most high-profile of what has been a league-wide trend.
I have my theories as to why hitters specifically are struggling so much with the jump to the majors – inconsistency with the strike zone, with the minors alternating between an automatic ball/strike system and a challenge system while the majors still use full-time human umpires certainly can't be making things easier for young hitters – but I don't think their struggles should cause us to just totally ignore prospect call-ups. We just have to keep things in perspective.
That feels especially true for Blue Jays shortstop Orelvis Martinez, who is expected to get the call Wednesday to replace an injured Bo Bichette. Martinez has hit .260/.343/.523 in Triple-A this season, with 16 homers in 63 games. Martinez has legitimate power, with a max exit velocity of 115.2 mph and an average of 90, impressive marks for any minor-leaguer, let alone a 22-year-old. However, he's also struck out 24% of the time and has no steals, so there's a lot of pressure on the power to play up – in a home park that has been tough for hitters over the past few seasons.
That might be asking too much from Martinez, though he really does have rare power – you don't see many seasons of 28 or more homers from minor-leaguers, given the shorter schedules, and Martinez has done it in each of his three prior professional seasons. Still, I'm going to suggest him as a pickup for at least 12-team Roto leagues, just in case he's one of the rare ones who hits the ground running. I'm hoping for a similar impact as we've gotten from Andy Pages of the Dodgers, perhaps with a bit better than his current 21-homer pace.
There's a pretty good chance Martinez gets sent back down to Triple-A in a few weeks when Bichette is healthy enough to return. But there's a chance he's also an immediate plus in the power categories, and I'm willing to bet on that, even if I'm less willing to blow my FAB budget than I might have been earlier in the season.
Wednesday's top waiver targets
Ben Rice, C, Yankees (17%) – If Rice wasn't catcher eligible on CBS Fantasy, I'm not sure I'd be interested in him at all. Instead, I think he's basically someone you should consider in all two-catcher leagues. He's put up some eye-popping numbers in the minors, hitting .284/.397/.523 in his career, but he's done that while being old for basically every level; he's 25 and just made his debut at Triple-A a few weeks ago. As a 1B, where he is likely to play for the Yankees, I'd be taking a wait-and-see approach on waivers. But with catcher eligibility, the bar is a lot lower – Korey Lee is a top-24 catcher while hitting .241/.275/.382 this season. You just don't have to be very good to matter at this position, and Rice, as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, very well may be good enough to clear that low bar.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP, Braves (24%) – This is really the first time we've seen strikeout upside from Schwellenbach, who had just a 17.6% strikeout rate in his first three starts. He took advantage of a good matchup with the Tigers to strike out seven in six innings of work, while racking up 18 swinging strikes in this one, left by his cutter and slider. I don't think Schwellenbach necessarily has huge upside, but at least we got a glimpse of some Tuesday.
Chad Green, RP, Blue Jays (12%) – This one is fairly straightforward: As long as Jordan Romano is on the IL, Chad Green looks like he's going to save games for the Blue Jays with Yimi Garcia on the IL. Green has mostly been a very good pitcher over the years – 3.18 career ERA – but he's had trouble staying healthy lately. That's a reason to be skeptical of his long-term appeal, but if you can get a few saves out of him for now, that's pretty useful.
Keegan Thompson, RP, Cubs (0%) – I wrote yesterday about how messy the Cubs bullpen is, and then Thompson went out and looked dominant in getting the save Tuesday against the Giants. He struck out the side in this one and has at least shown strikeout upside this season, with 23 in 14.2 innings. I think we probably need at least one more Hector Neris blow-up for the Cubs to turn things over to Thompson, but if you want to get ahead of that, Thompson is a viable stash in deeper leagues.
Jonathan Cannon, SP, White Sox (8%) – That's two excellent starts in a row for Cannon, who has now allowed just one run in 15.2 innings in that span. That's only come with 11 strikeouts after he had just four Tuesday, and Cannon's minor-league career doesn't necessarily support much strikeout upside – in 166 career innings prior to getting to the majors, he had just 145 strikeouts. I'm skeptical there's much here for 12-team leagues, but if you want to take a flier based on his recent success just in case Cannon has unlocked something the way a few other White Sox pitchers have this season, that seems reasonable.
