The hot stove is still pre-heating, and I have some concerns that this might be one of those offseasons that tends to drag along. For one thing, there are multiple Scott Boras clients out there with dreams of big paydays but major flaws that could make most teams unwilling to meet their asking price. We've seen examples of this in the very recent past, with Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery all remaining unsigned well into Spring Training last season.
I'm not worried about that with, say, Juan Soto or Roki Sasaki. But It's a real concern for Alex Bregman and Corbin Burnes, at least, as two older-ish players looking for $200 million contracts with apparently declining skill sets. I could see either ending up waiting a long time before signing based on the precedent Boras clients have established in recent years. And plenty of MLB teams have proven they're willing to sit out free agency entirely if it means not giving out a contract they don't want to.
Then there's also the Sasaki angle that needs to be addressed. MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters this week he expected Sasaki to sign as part of the 2025 International Free Agent class, which means he won't sign until after January 15. That has significant implications for the rest of the amateur class, obviously -- teams are limited in how much they can offer Sasaki as a signing bonus, and you have to expect multiple teams will offer their entire pool for a chance to sign him. But it also might cause a slowdown in the free agent market elsewhere, as teams might be unwilling to move on the likes of Burnes if they still have a chance to add Sasaki.
That confluence of factors could lead to a slowdown in the free agency process this year. Let's hope not, and let's hope we see these six moves come to fruition, too:
Blake Snell signs (anywhere!) early
I'm not 100% convinced by the theory that Snell's early struggles last season were solely the result of him not getting a proper Spring Training – I have a longer memory than that, and I know that "You can't use Blake Snell right now, he will absolutely wreck your ratios" is an annual trend at this point. Just check out these alarmingly high ERAs Snell has posted alarmingly late into each of the past four seasons:
- 2024: 9.51 ERA on June 2
- 2023: 5.40 ERA on May 19
- 2022: 5.22 ERA on July 14
- 2021: 5.44 ERA on July 28
That being said, I'd sure like to see Snell avoid a repeat of last offseason, just in case. The late start to the season and abbreviated opportunity to get up to speed almost certainly didn't help, at the very least, so let's hope he can avoid that particular speed bump. I'm unlikely to be the one who takes the plunge on Snell – especially when I draft so many of my teams in the same leagues as Scott White, who has him ranked as a top-10 SP this year – but the reality is, his numbers typically end up looking ace-like eventually, as Snell has a 2.82 ERA and 1.158 WHIP over the past three seasons.
You'll have to decide for yourself if you can handle the roller coaster that comes along with having Snell on your team, because the worst thing you can do is draft and then drop him when times get tough. I think there are enough knocks against Snell that I won't be willing to make him one of my staff's aces, but I would at least like to see him get a clean shot going into the season. He's certainly capable of proving my skepticism extremely wrong, as he shows for roughly three months every season.
Garrett Crochet gets traded to the Orioles
If what Crochet did last season is indicative of what to expect moving forward, Crochet is the kind of pitcher whose home park just doesn't matter. He was arguably the best strikeout pitcher among starters last season and showed good control and quality of contact abilities. So no, Baltimore moving in and lowering their left field fences certainly wouldn't scare me off – especially since right field there should play a lot more pitcher-friendly than Guaranteed Rate Field typically does.
So I'm going with Crochet to the Orioles here because it feels like the perfect match of team and player available this offseason. Even if the Orioles re-sign Corbin Burnes, which they should, this is a team that clearly needed another starting pitcher last season, and Crochet would be as good an option as they could find. Arguably even better than Burnes at this point in their respective careers. Crochet is less of a sure thing than many of the other aces out there, with just the one season's worth of performance at this level to go off. Which is why teams and Fantasy players are somewhat skeptical that he can be an ace for a full season. But the Orioles are close enough to being a World Series favorite that they can and should make the bet on Crochet. And it would be about as big of an upgrade in surrounding environment as you could hope for, taking Crochet's projected win total from below 10 to close to 15.
Alex Bregman to the Phillies; Alec Bohm to the Yankees
Bregman is being viewed with a lot of skepticism from a lot of quarters as he heads into free agency, but the Phillies seem like a natural fit – I'm not saying they are luddites, organizationally, but they clearly are more worried about maximizing their chances of winning a title today than eking out every possible edge they can find with their payroll. Dave Dombroski isn't precious about building his teams, so where other teams might worry about how his contract might look in 2035, Dombrowski will see it as a way to widen the Phillies championship window today, and he seemingly has the backing of ownership all the way. Is Bregman a perfect player? Certainly not! But if he's going to leave that short porch in Houston, Philadelphia is about as good a park as he could hope to wind up in.
As for the other part? The Yankees have been vocal about their desire to get more contact hitting in the lineup to balance out the big thumpers, and Bohm can be what they hoped DJ LeMahieu would be when they re-signed him – a contact-first bat who isn't swinging a wet noodle out there. Bohm faked us out with an apparent power breakout early in 2024 before settling in, where he normally ends up as a good but not elite bat. The Yankees need lineup depth even if they re-sign Juan Soto, and Bohm could provide that while filling in at either first or third base – and it helps that he played the hot corner a lot better in 2024 than he ever had before. If that sticks, he's kind of a perfect fit for what New York needs, especially if they don't want to make any other big splashes in free agency after (presumably) bringing Soto back. He might drive in 110 runs batting behind Soto and Aaron Judge.
Nolan Arenado gets traded to the Astros
Okay, so the Astros need a third baseman if Bregman signs elsewhere, and Arenado could be a fit. He would represent an upgrade defensively at third base, and while his bat has lost a lot of thump, Houston could be a good spot for him to get back some of what he has lost. Arenado has always – and especially since leaving Colorado – relied more than just about any hitter in baseball on depositing fly balls three rows deep in the left-field stands. Well, the nice thing about Houston is those three rows are about 20 feet closer to home plate than they are in St. Louis, which would have led to about 30% more homers over the past three seasons. Would that be enough to stem the tide of Arenado's collapse over the past few seasons? Maybe not, but it might be his only path back to Fantasy relevance.
Jarren Duran gets traded to the Mariners
Okay, so, admittedly, this one actually wouldn't be great for Duran's Fantasy value. And it probably wouldn't be great for whichever Mariners pitcher gets sent back to Boston, either – as I noted last week, the Mariners rotation has some pretty jarring home/road splits. But the Red Sox have a glut of position players they need to clear out even before accounting for their incredible corps of top prospects looming in the high minors. The Mariners desperately need bats, and the Red Sox need pitching, so this feels like a pretty good fit – and I am, selfishly, trying to engineer a clear path to an Opening Day role for Roman Anthony, whose combination of bat-to-ball skills, athleticism, and raw power could make him an absolute superstar in the next few years.
Corbin Burnes to the Giants
The Orioles shouldn't even let him get an offer from another team, but if he does, you can rest assured that the Giants are going to be in on Burnes as they continue to try to make a splash in free agency. And, among teams that would be interested in a pitcher of Burnes' caliber, the Giants probably have the best home park to help mitigate the natural effects of his decline. Baltimore helped out quite a bit in that regard last season, providing a nice soft landing as his strikeout rate continued to decline, but with news that they are moving their fences in left field in, it won't be quite as nurturing an environment.
Of course, there's another part of this to keep in mind: Burnes may not need as soft a landing spot as we think. As I wrote last week, Burnes fixed some of the issues with his cutter toward the end of the season, bumping his whiff rate with the pitch back up to 26% and going on a run to close out the season, where he struck out 28 while allowing two runs over 27 innings in his final four starts. It's a small sample size, but it was combined with an acknowledgment from Burnes of what went wrong prior, as well as signs that he had addressed that issue. I'm optimistic, no matter where he signs.