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When Andrew Luck first had shoulder surgery in January, no one expected him to be questionable for Week 1 of the regular season. Now, there's a report he might not play until Week 3.
It's starting to become a huge concern -- for the Colts and Fantasy owners.
Not only do you have to worry about Luck and his Fantasy value this year, his status clearly impacts their receiving corps of T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle. Even Frank Gore will suffer if Luck is out, and hopefully the Week 3 speculation is the worst-case scenario.
Luck could still be placed on the reserve/PUP list, which means he would be out for at least the first six games of the season, and that could be a disaster. But Colts general manager Chris Ballard said that isn't expected to happen, although Week 1 at the Rams is looking bleak.
Luck has yet to practice with the team, and Colts coach Chuck Pagano said Tuesday "there's no timeline" for his return to the field. The Indianapolis Star reports the Colts will only have six days of practice following the third preseason game and before the season opener Sept. 10, and that might not give Luck enough time to prove he's ready.
It also sounds like Pagano isn't ready to rush Luck back before he's at full strength.
"We're not going to know until we get him out here," Pagano said. "When the doctors say he's ready and he's 100 percent and he can start practicing, then we'll have that answer."
It leaves Fantasy owners in a tough spot. When healthy, Luck has proven to be among the elite Fantasy quarterbacks. He finished as the No. 1 quarterback in 2014 and was No. 4 last year, and he played at least 15 games in each season. He was limited to seven games in 2015 because of a shoulder injury and kidney laceration, and he's definitely making Fantasy owners nervous on Draft Day this year.
His Average Draft Position heading into the third week of preseason action is as the No. 10 quarterback off the board at No. 76 overall. I have him ranked at No. 9, but if he was guaranteed to play Week 1 with no issues, he would be no worse than No. 4 behind Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
Two things that could be working in Luck's favor are the Colts haven't made any contingency plans to replace him and still have just Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris on the roster. And Fantasy owners can certainly manage without Luck if it's just a one- or two-game absence because quarterback is so deep.
For example, you can pair Luck with any of these quarterbacks being selected in Round 10 or later based on ADP: Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Andy Dalton or Carson Wentz. The best one might be Palmer, who has the easiest early-season schedule at Detroit in Week 1 and at the Colts in Week 2.
We hope to get an answer soon on when Luck will return, but he's no longer someone to target on Draft Day. Instead, let him fall in your lap in Round 8 or later, and his ADP in Round 7 is too high given the risk.
As for the receivers, they are starting to drop in ADP as well. Hilton was once a potential first-round pick, but his ADP is currently at No. 30 overall as the No. 11 receiver off the board.
Hilton had a career year in 2016 when he finished as the No. 5 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues with career highs in catches (91), yards (1,448) and targets (156), as well as six touchdowns. He was also the No. 10 receiver in 2014.
But in 2015, when Luck was hurt, Hilton finished as the No. 20 receiver, and most of his damage came when Luck was on the field. In the 10 games Luck has missed over the past two seasons (he was out in Week 12 last year against Pittsburgh with a concussion), Hilton has just 41 catches for 630 yards and two touchdowns.
The two scores came in one game in Week 12 against Tampa Bay in 2015, and he scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in just two outings over that 10-game span. It's clear Fantasy owners are worried about Hilton, which is why his ADP has dropped.
I'll still draft Hilton in Round 2 unless Luck is scheduled to miss more than the first couple of games. But I did drop him in my rankings behind guys like Amari Cooper and Doug Baldwin, who have similar upside to Hilton with less concerns.
Moncrief is another receiver dropping in ADP and my rankings, but he has two things working against him. Along with Luck being hurt, Moncrief has been dealing with a shoulder injury in training camp, and he's now just the No. 42 receiver being drafted at No. 116 overall. He's also No. 42 in my rankings.
Moncrief had a choppy year in 2016 when he played in just nine games because of a shoulder injury, but he still managed to score seven touchdowns. He only managed 30 catches for 307 yards on 56 targets to go with it, but I was optimistic for Moncrief this season in a contract year.
But with his injury and Luck being sidelined, Moncrief is only worth drafting with a late-round pick. He should outperform his draft status if everyone is healthy, but it's hard to count on that now.
One positive, however, was during Tolzien's lone start against the Steelers last year, he targeted Moncrief 11 times for six catches, 45 yards and a touchdown. The targets were a season best, and he tied his season high in receptions.
Doyle also has gone from a potential top-10 Fantasy tight end to just barely a No. 1 option in my rankings. His ADP puts him at the No.14 tight end at No. 135 overall.
Luck has a great track record of leaning on his tight ends, which what makes Doyle a sleeper this year. In 2016, Luck threw 12 of his 31 touchdowns (39 percent) to his tight ends. And in 2014, he threw 18 of his 40 touchdowns (45 percent) to his tight ends.
I'm waiting for Doyle in all of my leagues on Draft Day because he still has huge upside. He just needs Luck to be healthy.
Gore also needs a healthy Luck to have success, and the Colts are dealing with another vital injury to center Ryan Kelly (foot), who is expected to be placed on injured reserve/designated to return. That means Kelly is out until at least Week 9, and his loss hurts the run game..
Gore had a good season in 2016 when he was the No. 12 Fantasy running back in standard leagues, but he's also been bad when Luck was out. In the past 10 games when Luck missed time with injury, Gore has 166 carries for 547 yards (3.3 yards per carry) and three touchdowns and 20 catches for 169 yards and one touchdown.
He only had three games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league over that span, and it's hard to trust Gore this year at 34, especially when he could lose touches to Marlon Mack and Robert Turbin. Gore is being drafted as the No. 34 running back at No. 94 overall, and that's the right spot for him this year.
As you would expect, the Colts suffer when Luck isn't on the field. And so do Fantasy owners. We hope he doesn't have an extended absence to start the season, but you should plan for him to be out for Week 1 and maybe Week 2.
It's an unlucky break for a lot of prominent Fantasy options on this team. But the hope would be that when Luck is on the field that he and all the other Colts will thrive.
