There was a stretch last year when Jay Ajayi looked like the best running back in the NFL. The Dolphins and Fantasy owners would like to see that happen again, but this time for a full season.
And it could all come down to Miami's offensive line.
Ajayi's hot streak in 2016 started in Week 6 against Pittsburgh when he had 25 carries for 204 yards and two touchdowns, and he followed that up with 28 carries for 214 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo in Week 7. Following a bye in Week 8, Ajayi had 24 carries for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Jets in Week 9.
He cooled off in Week 10 at San Diego when he had 19 carries for only 79 yards, and that game is significant. That's the last time Ajayi's offensive line was healthy.
Center Mike Pouncey, who is arguably the Dolphins best offensive lineman, only played in five games last year because of a hip injury, which was Weeks 5-7 and 9-10. Pouncey didn't get to play with left tackle Branden Albert or left guard Laremy Tunsil in Week 5, and that explains why Ajayi got hot starting with the Steelers game.
Ajayi had another monster game in Week 16 at Buffalo with 32 carries for 206 yards and a touchdown, but that says as much about the Bills defense last year as anything else. For the season, Ajayi only had six games with double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league, and four of them came with Pouncey (Ajayi had 13 carries for 42 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee in Week 5).
Now, Ajayi was still good with an incomplete offensive line, and he finished the season as the No. 11 Fantasy running back in standard leagues with 260 carries for 1,272 yards (4.89 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns and 27 catches for 151 yards. He was just better when he had better blocking.
And that brings us to this year and the state of Miami's offensive line. The Dolphins traded Albert to the Jaguars this offseason in a salary dump, and Tunsil will now play left tackle. Right guard Jermon Bushrod, who played all 16 games last season, was brought back as a free agent, and Ja'Wuan James also returns at right tackle after starting every game in 2016.
Ted Larsen or rookie Isaac Asiata could be the starter at left guard, but the key to it all is Pouncey. His status for training camp is uncertain, but he's expected to be fine for Week 1. It's one of the bigger injuries worth monitoring prior to the season.
The more games Pouncey plays the better off it is for Ajayi, as well as the Dolphins entire offense. Ajayi is worth drafting in Round 2 in the majority of leagues, and he has the chance to be a standout Fantasy option for the second year in a row.
It will also help that quarterback Ryan Tannehill is healthy coming off last year's knee injury. He was hurt in Week 14 last year against Arizona and missed the final four games of the season, including the playoff loss against Pittsburgh, but he will be fine for training camp.
Tannehill's not worth drafting, but he could be a streaming option during the season. And aside from Ajayi, the only other prominent Dolphins player to target in most formats is Jarvis Landry, who is a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in standard and PPR leagues.
Landry is worth drafting in Round 5 in standard leagues and early in Round 4 in PPR. We also like DeVante Parker this season, and don't be surprised if Julius Thomas does well being reunited with coach Adam Gase. Kenny Stills could struggle after last year's surprise performance, but this Dolphins offense has the chance to be great.
We just hope the offensive line is intact because that could be the key to making everything click.
Sleeper: Julius Thomas
Thomas has been terrible for the past two seasons in Jacksonville, but he was traded to the Dolphins this offseason, which should help his Fantasy value. That's because he's being reunited with Gase. When the two were in Denver, with Gase as the offensive coordinator, Thomas was a Fantasy star. In 2013, he was the No. 3 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues, and he was No. 7 in 2014, mostly on the strength of his 24 combined touchdowns. But he flopped with the Jaguars, missing 11 games due to injury in two seasons, and he had poor production as well with 46 catches for 455 yards and five touchdowns in 2015 and 30 catches for 281 yards and four touchdowns in 2016. But Gase should help Thomas rebound this year because he has a good track record with tight ends. After Thomas, he worked well with Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller as the offensive coordinator with the Bears in 2015, and that duo would have been the No. 7 Fantasy tight end in standard leagues. And in Miami in 2016, his tight end group (Jordan Cameron, Dion Sims, MarQueis Gray and Dominique Jones) would have been good for the No. 10 Fantasy tight end. There's no guarantee Thomas returns to form with Gase or even stays healthy. But he could be worth the risk with a late-round pick in deeper leagues, or he's someone to add off waivers if he starts the season playing well.
Is this the year?: DeVante Parker
There is plenty of potential for Parker, but he has to prove himself. And this is the year to make it happen in his third season in the NFL. Parker was drafted with the thought that he'd be an NFL star when he was a first-round pick out of Louisville at No. 14 overall in 2015. But he's struggled with injuries and an apparent lack of motivation through two years, as Gase said this offseason that Parker has to be "more consistent in his approach" and to "show up on time." He's combined for 82 catches, 1,238 yards and seven touchdowns so far in his career, but that should be his production in one season. Instead, Parker has watched Landry become a star, and last year Stills was the breakout receiver for the Dolphins, which helped him earn a nice raise this offseason. But Parker has earned plenty of praise during OTA's and minicamp, and he appears to have listened to Gase. It could lead to a third-year breakout, and we consider Parker a sleeper to target with a mid-round pick. He's trending in the right direction, and hopefully things click for him in his third year.
Bust: Kenny Stills
Stills turned out to be a great player for the Dolphins in 2016, and he wasn't a bad Fantasy option either. He had 42 catches for 726 yards and nine touchdowns on 81 targets, and he was the No. 28 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues. He also averaged 17.3 yards per catch, which was second in the NFL among receivers with at least 40 catches behind only DeSean Jackson (17.9 yards per catch). As a result, the Dolphins rewarded Stills with a four-year contract worth $32 million, including $20 million guaranteed. Now, Stills was obviously touchdown dependent to save his Fantasy value, but he scored at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league in nine games, including four in a row to close the year. But he also only had three games with more than four catches and six games with more than 50 receiving yards. Landry will be the leader of this receiving corps, but our hope is Parker takes a step forward with his production, which could hurt Stills. And the addition of Thomas should take away a couple of touchdowns. It's not a bad idea to take a flier on Stills with a late-round pick, but we hope Fantasy owners don't chase his touchdown total from last season, especially after he got paid. It's doubtful Stills finishes as a top 30 Fantasy receiver again this year.
