Even though the Lions made the playoffs last year, many would likely tell you their offense was barely at full strength. Once lead running back Ameer Abdullah went down with an injury in Week 2, the Lions scraped by with a rag-tag run game and a passing attack that became inconsistent. It didn't help that quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked 37 times, which happened to be a three-year low for him.
The Lions reacted accordingly, replacing right tackle Riley Reiff with former Ravens tackle Rick Wagner and swiping guard T.J. Lang from the Packers to replace Larry Warford, who signed with the Saints. The O-line looked great on paper until shoulder surgery sidelined second-year left tackle Taylor Decker. He'll miss at least the first couple of months of the season, creating a big problem for Detroit.
No one's going to feel sorry for the Lions, nor will it change Jim Caldwell's philosophies. Speaking about the run game in June, Caldwell all but guaranteed that he'll continue to use multiple running backs as part of his game plan. In only 11 games since Caldwell took over in 2014 has a Lions running back had at least 15 carries on his own -- and eight of them were by Joique Bell in '14. Injuries have played a role, and perhaps the root of the problem is the Lions' inability to find an every-down back, but the fact remains that they're likely going to split the rushing workload, and they have as many as four capable running backs to help out. This isn't the team to find a stud Fantasy rusher.
Maybe it will lead to the Lions leaning on Stafford all over again. Again, since Caldwell's takeover, the Lions have passed 62 percent of the time or more in each of three seasons (64.7 percent in 2016). Until that changes, bank on the Lions focusing on the pass, especially since their defense has declined over the last two seasons.
Don't Overrate: Ameer Abdullah
Abdullah has just about every knock imaginable. He's injury prone because he missed 14 games last year with a foot injury. He's a fumbler after coughing up the ball five times as a rookie (losing possession twice). He's on a team that splits carries and he's had just four games with 15-plus touches. He's never run for more than 77 yards in a game, has one career game with 100 or more total yards and has four career touchdowns. For any of these trends to reverse course, Abdullah will have to pick up plenty of work, not fumble and find the end zone even though he's not quite suited to hang at the goal line (two career carries inside the 10). Oh, and he'll have to stay healthy. It's a tall order, which means Fantasy owners shouldn't overrate Abdullah on Draft Day. It's acceptable to draft Abdullah between 55th and 70th overall, but not sooner.
Late-Round Flier: Marvin Jones
Jones disappointed a bunch of Fantasy folks last year when he averaged 17.0 Fantasy points over his first three games and 4.9 in his remaining 12. He got banged up and dropped a few passes, a one-two gut punch that led to diminished targets. But his playing time never dropped off, which makes for a curious situation. The Lions seem confident Jones will be fine for training camp and will flourish in his second season in Motown even though his first year had few highlights past September. The key here is the value -- it's worth it to draft an NFL team's No. 1 outside receiver in Round 12 or later and hope he can rebound. The price tag is miniscule, so much so that if Jones flops in the first few weeks you won't even remember what round you got him in when you cut him for someone else. Jones makes for good roster depth.
Bust: Eric Ebron
Last year should have been Ebron's breakout year. Of course, we could have said that the year before, too. Our patience is wearing thin with Ebron, who has actually not been used the way we'd expect in Motown, and that's why his numbers haven't been so good. In 13 games last year he had six targets in the end zone, and in three NFL seasons he's been thrown at in the red zone just 19 times. You'd want more, particularly for a guy his size. He also underwhelmed with 6.5 targets per game in 2016 -- we saw Anquan Boldin get less and do more with them. So even though Ebron nailed down personal-bests in catches (61) and yards (711), he's just not a reliable Fantasy option. Even his Week 1 matchup against the Cardinals is tough. We wouldn't draft him.
