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You want to know the worst part of Fantasy football draft season?
Okay, besides the injuries.
It's when I look at Average Draft Position data and see very good players with very bad ADPs. Why? Because then I have to call them busts and you all get all up in arms about how I said they aren't any good.
So let's be clear. There are some very good football players on the list below — great, even. But none of them are going to live up to the expectations we're setting for them. So stay away. In fact, I'll even given you someone else you should draft in their place.
Like I said, some of these guys are really great players. But no running back is consistently as efficient as Alvin Kamara was last year. He's going to see some serious regression in terms of both yards per carry and yards per reception. He won't match that touchdown rate, either. I'm assuming everyone knows that, but just think he's going to see an explosion in volume to make up for it.
Kamara may see more work in the first four weeks of the season, but he's not getting 20 touches a week. Once Mark Ingram returns, I suspect they'll settle into something close to the roles we saw them in last year. I have Kamara projected for 247 touches overall, an increase of almost 20 percent over last year. That's not enough to cover the coming regression, and leaves him outside of my top-10 running backs in non-PPR. But even in PPR, I'd rather have one of the top three receivers.
Instead draft: DeAndre Hopkins
I don't know why Jerick McKinnon was being drafted this high before his calf injury. Now it's just ridiculous. McKinnon is going to a pass-heavy offense and will split carries with at least one other running back, maybe two after Alfred Morris' performance in Week 3 of the preseason.
He does have upside in PPR, where he could catch 60-plus passes, but his floor involves a situation where he's not getting any short yardage work. Even in PPR I wouldn't take him in the first 30 picks; in non-PPR he's a fourth round pick.
Instead draft: Jordan Howard
I'll keep this short and sweet because I can't imagine it's controversial: Don't draft a 30-year-old running back with an awful offensive line on a terrible team in the first three rounds. Got it? Good.
Instead draft: Jordan Howard
To be fair, no quarterback should be drafted in the first three rounds. Not even Aaron Rodgers. But more specifically, Deshaun Watson shouldn't be the third quarterback selected on Draft Day. I went more in depth on this last week when I debated Watson vs. Andrew Luck with Jamey Eisenberg, but I'll give you the condensed version:
Watson was averaging around 31 pass attempts per game last year. It's really hard to be a top-5 quarterback with that few pass attempts. Also, he's probably going to throw a bunch of interceptions, which hurt you more in leagues where they cost you two points per pick. Finally, CBS Fantasy leagues are predominantly award six points per pass touchdown, which is not a format that will benefit a low-volume passer.
Instead draft: T.Y. Hilton
I'm worried about this entire Eagles offense early in the season, but more on that below. With Ajayi in particular, I'm worried about volume. Doug Pederson spreads the ball around in the running game and the passing game. Corey Clement is going to get a chunk of the rushing production and Darren Sproles will be involved in the passing game. Ajayi is going to struggle to reach 240 touches and it will be hard to know when to start him as a No. 2 running back.
Instead draft: Mark Ingram
This one is going to be a bit format-dependent, because I'm fine with Golden Tate in the fifth round of a PPR draft. But CBS ADP is a composite of all drafts, which means he's either going much higher in PPR or close to this in non-PPR. Neither of those is a good idea. The Lions are going to make every attempt to run the ball more often in 2018 and Kenny Golladay is going to be a bigger part of the passing game, potentially even pushing Tate off the field in two-receiver sets. Both of those things will cut into Tate's volume. Besides, there's a better PPR receiver going after Tate according to ADP.
Instead draft: Larry Fitzgerald
Evan Engram had a spectacular season for a rookie tight end. But that was mostly without Odell Beckham and entirely without a good running game. With Beckham back and Saquon Barkley in New York, I would expect Engram's involvement in the offense will suffer. That doesn't mean he's not good, he's easily still a top-10 tight end. But I'd rather have Kyle Rudolph in the seventh round or Trey Burton in the eighth. If you must take a tight end in the sixth, there's a better option being drafted in the same round.
Instead draft: Greg Olsen
This is getting old, right? I've written about Carson Wentz in every offseason bust column this year. So let's see what has changed: He's still not cleared for contact; His No. 1 receiver is still on the PUP list; And his ADP has fallen all the way to ... QB7. Yep, he's staying on the list. Touchdown regression and questionable mobility were my early reasons for calling Wentz a bust. Now it's just common sense. Find a better use for your sixth round pick.
Instead draft: Carlos Hyde
Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 70)
No. That's not a typo. The ADP of the No. 1 defense is in the sixth round. Do not be this person. Historically speaking, it's not even likely Jacksonville repeats as the No. 1 defense. But they will be good, great even. Just not great enough to cancel out the opportunity cost of passing on starters at running back and wide receiver. If the Jaguars are going to cost you a pick in the single-digit rounds, take a hard pass.
Instead draft: Jamaal Williams
At least one of the Rams receivers
The 2017 Rams threw 518 passes. This offseason they added Brandin Cooks and a lot of help on the defensive side of the ball. Todd Gurley led the team in receptions last year. You have a low volume passing attack and a lack of certainty in the target distribution. This is not a situation I'm particularly interested in investing in.
My current projections have Cooks as the best Rams receiver in non-PPR and Woods as the best option in PPR. But there's a reason three Rams receivers are being drafted among the top 31 and it's not because everyone thinks Jared Goff is going to be a top-5 quarterback. It's because very few people are taking a stand on who will be the clear No. 1 in Los Angeles. In a way that probably best explains what we'll see, too. Cooks, Woods and Kupp will take turns taking advantage of matchups and leading the team in receiving. It will be terribly frustrating trying to decide when to start any of these receivers, though they are fine options in best ball.
So what Fantasy Football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which wide receiver can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Alvin Kamara's huge breakout last season and find out.
