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It's not surprising this rookie running back class has been a disappointment thus far given the high bar set by the class of 2017. We've had injuries to Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny, but by far the most disappointing in terms of actual performance has been Ronald Jones. That has paved the way for Peyton Barber to be the starting running back, and Barber has seized the opportunity. The question now is how long he can hold onto it.
Jones flashed his speed on a 32-yard reception on Friday night (and he caught it!) and reminded everyone that he still has the most upside in this backfield. To me he's a bit of a poor man's Rashaad Penny on Draft Day. Neither of these guys have any idea how to be an NFL running back right now but when they figure it out, they're better than the other backs on their team.
This makes it really hard to project Barber or Jones. We don't know when things will click for the rookie. We don't know for sure that they'll click at all. I'm treating Barber like an early season flex (or Zero-RB target) that isn't likely to hold the job for more than half a season. I'm treating Jones like a late-round lottery ticket.
The running back situation isn't the only thing that has changed since the start of camp. Chris Godwin has looked like he's prepared to make a star turn. Godwin passed DeSean Jackson this summer, and Pete Prisco said Tampa Bay now considers Godwin a 1A to Mike Evans No. 1 status. There are three quick takeaways to this.
- Godwin is a high-upside top-40 receiver.
- Evans' ceiling is limited if Godwin breaks out.
- Jameis Winston is going to be a top-10 quarterback once he returns.
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
| PLAYER | EXPECTED FP | POS. RANK | EXPECTED PPR FP | POS. RANK |
| 157 | #11 | 234 | #16 | |
| Chris Godwin | 125 | #35 | 186 | #41 |
| Peyton Barber | 127 | #35 | 150 | #42 |
| Ronald Jones | 75 | #57 | 84 | #64 |
| Jameis Winston | 258 | #32 | 258 | #32 |
| 77 | #22 | 123 | #22 | |
| O.J. Howard | 72 | #27 | 111 | #28 |
Breaking down the touches
Coach Dirk Koetter will continue to call plays for Tampa Bay, and with all the weapons the Bucs have accumulated we can only assume he'll continue to spread the ball around. Last season there were seven different pass catchers who saw at least 39 targets. Running backs have taken a back seat in the passing game each of the past two seasons, garnering just 15 percent of the team's targets.
What will be interesting is if Koetter gets back to a more balanced pass/run split. In 2017 Tampa Bay was an extremely pass-heavy team, with only 37.6 percent of their offensive plays being runs. The two prior years combined Koetter's offense ran the ball 43 percent of the time. I've got them slated for 40 percent right now, and anything more would further diminish Evans' chances of having a monster year.
| Buccaneers touches | ||||||||
| Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD | ||
| Peyton Barber | 45% | 188 | 5% | 29 | 23 | 6 | ||
| Ronald Jones | 33% | 138 | 2% | 12 | 9 | 2 | ||
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 10% | 42 | 8% | 46 | 35 | 2 | ||
| Mike Evans | 0% | 0 | 25% | 144 | 76 | 8 | ||
| Chris Godwin | 0% | 0 | 17% | 98 | 62 | 5 | ||
| DeSean Jackson | 0% | 0 | 11% | 63 | 36 | 2 | ||
| Adam Humphries | 0% | 0 | 10% | 58 | 40 | 1 | ||
| Cameron Brate | 0% | 0 | 12% | 69 | 46 | 4 | ||
| O.J. Howard | 0% | 0 | 10% | 58 | 39 | 4 | ||
Of note:
- The tight end situation in Tampa is very unique. Howard is more explosive than Brate, but Winston trusts the latter in the red zone.
- Charles Sims' injury opened up the door for Jacquizz Rodgers to be the third-down back, but it also opens up upside for Barber and Jones.
The Leftovers
The Buccaneers forced me to list so many players above that it's hard to come up with even deeper options. Ryan Fitzpatrick should be a fine fill-in for Winston if you want to take both late in the two-QB league.
