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- Jamey will be updating his Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts next week, but in case your missed our position-by-position previews, here are his picks for wide receiver.
As we've now gone through this exercise of updating sleepers, breakouts and busts for each position over the past month, I was anxiously awaiting receiver week. Specifically because of the sleeper receivers.
I love the potential of all these late-round options. And there are a lot of guys I want to draft.
To recap, the sleepers I wrote about previously this offseason included Cameron Meredith, Jamison Crowder, Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Rishard Matthews, Pierre Garcon, DJ Moore, Kenny Stills and Michael Gallup. Of these guys, the only ones who make me nervous now are Meredith and Matthews, mostly because of health.
The breakouts I already wrote about included Josh Gordon, Corey Davis, Cooper Kupp, Will Fuller, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chris Hogan. Gordon's absence from the Browns at the start of training camp is clearly a concern, so hopefully he'll report soon, but these receivers can all be significant difference makers this year.
And since we unfortunately have to talk about busts, those guys included Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones, Robby Anderson, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery and Jordy Nelson. Jones' Average Draft Position (No. 68 overall) is in a good spot, so I would remove him from this list. Same for Landry if Gordon misses any time for the Browns, and if Anderson can avoid a suspension. But it's doubtful I'll draft Cooks, Jeffery or Nelson on any of my Fantasy teams in 2018.
You can read all about the earlier versions of sleepers here, breakouts here and busts here. Now, let's get to some new players to focus on as you prepare for your upcoming drafts.
Sleepers
Williams was a bust as a rookie in 2017, and he struggled with back problems. He's healthy now, and there is production to be had for the Chargers with Hunter Henry (ACL) out. The Chargers are excited about the former No. 7 overall pick in last year's NFL Draft, and he should be a steal at his current ADP of No. 135 overall in Round 12. Chances are, however, a strong preseason will make Williams' stock rise.
Agholor is coming off a third-year breakout campaign in 2017, and he should build on that performance this season. Only six receivers had more than his eight touchdowns last year, and he should get a boost in production if Jeffery misses any time during the regular season because of his shoulder injury. Obviously, the health of Carson Wentz (ACL) is important to Agholor, who caught seven touchdowns from Wentz last year. But Agholor is an easy player to draft at No. 122 overall in Round 11.
Lockett could have two scenarios that should make him attractive to Fantasy owners this year, especially at his ADP of No. 156 overall in Round 13. For starters, Jimmy Graham is gone, and along with Paul Richardson and Luke Willson, Seattle has to replace 20 receiving touchdowns from last year. The last time Graham was out for the Seahawks at the end of the 2015 season, Lockett had three out of five games with at least nine Fantasy points in a non-PPR league. Also, with Doug Baldwin (knee) banged up, Lockett could end up as the No. 1 receiver for Russell Wilson at some point this year. He's an easy guy to like.
Miller is expected to be a big part of the Bears offense as a rookie, and he should have the chance to help Fantasy owners this season. He's being drafted in Round 11 at No. 130 overall, and hopefully he'll develop a quick rapport with second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Chicago has plenty of mouths to feed with Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel, Tarik Cohen and Miller, but he could emerge as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues this year.
The Jaguars rebuilt their receiving corps over the past two seasons, and they come into this year without a true No. 1 option. Marqise Lee would appear to be that guy on paper, but Cole might end up as the better Fantasy option. He led the team in receiving yards as a rookie in 2017, and he closed the season with double digits in Fantasy points in a non-PPR league in four of his final five games. The Jaguars apparently love Cole, and he could again finish as one of their top receivers in 2018.
Allison is expected to be the No. 3 receiver for the Packers behind Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, and he could be a third-year breakout receiver in 2018. He'll be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, which is obviously a great thing, and Green Bay has a history of third-year breakouts with Javon Walker (2004), Greg Jennings (2008) and Adams (2016). Allison could follow suit, and he's only going to cost you a late-round flier in the majority of leagues.
It appears that the Buccaneers will make Godwin a starter this year opposite Mike Evans, at least according to the Tampa Bay Times, and that's a great thing for his Fantasy value. The report says DeSean Jackson will play, but Godwin will see more targets from his rookie campaign in 2017. Last year, Godwin had four games with at least six targets, and he averaged 9.5 Fantasy points in a non-PPR leagues in those outings. He's a great late-round flier in all leagues.
The Colts are looking for a second receiver to help T.Y. Hilton, and Rogers is battling Ryan Grant for targets. I like Rogers better than Grant, and he has the chance to be a third-year breakout. He dealt with injuries in 2017 -- to himself (hamstring) and quarterback Andrew Luck (shoulder) -- but hopefully everyone is healthy now for the entire season. If Rogers emerges from training camp and the preseason in a prominent role, he should be worth a late-round pick in all formats.
The Dolphins are hoping Amendola will replace the departed Jarvis Landry, who had 112 catches for 987 yards and nine touchdowns on 160 targets last year. One report had Amendola potentially catching 80 passes this season as the primary slot receiver, and that could happen if he stays healthy. Miami would also like to see playoff Amendola in action since he has 36 catches for 438 yards and three touchdowns in his past five playoff games for New England going back to 2016. Amendola is a late-round flier in PPR.
Taylor has been running with the first-team offense in training camp with Matthews hurt, and he should see plenty of playing time even when Matthews returns since the Titans are relatively thin at receiver. Most likely, Taylor will end up seeing time in the slot as a replacement for Eric Decker. Taylor doesn't have a huge ceiling coming into the year, but he could be a sneaky Fantasy option if Matthews is out for a lengthy period of time. He's worth a late-round pick in deeper Fantasy leagues this season.
Breakouts
It took me a while to come around on Goodwin as the No. 1 receiver for the 49ers with Garcon coming back from last year's neck injury. But Goodwin has drawn rave reviews in training camp, and his rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo is clearly legit. Last season, Goodwin had 29 catches for 384 yards and one touchdown on 43 targets in five starts with Garoppolo, although Garcon was out during that time. Still, if you project Goodwin's stats over those five games for a full season, he would have finished with 93 catches for 1,229 yards and three touchdowns. While he will hopefully find the end zone more with Garoppolo in 2018, it's clear Goodwin should have the chance to produce in a big way. He's a great value at No. 103 overall in Round 9.
Busts
Hill's ADP is actually OK at No. 34 overall in Round 3, although I would prefer to see him closer to the fourth round. But I've seen him drafted too often at the end of Round 2, and you could be in trouble if that's the case. Don't look at his production from last year and expect that to happen again. He was awesome, but his stats could decline in 2018. For starters, the move from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes could hurt Hill because Smith was among the best deep-ball passers in the NFL last season. Hill had just four targets in the red zone and one inside the 10. He needs to be more involved in that part of the field to maintain his success. Hill also could lose targets with the addition of Sammy Watkins, who is an upgrade over Albert Wilson. If Watkins takes away production from Hill, and his touchdowns decline, he could hurt your Fantasy team given his price tag.
So what sleepers should you snatch in your Fantasy Football draft? And which huge running backs do you need to jump all over? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Alvin Kamara's huge breakout last season and find out.
