We did it. We made it to Week 1. We've made it through all of the coachspeak, beat writer speculation, practice videos, unofficial depth charts and meaningless games. Real football happens in three days.
Before we get there let's take a look back at some of the things we "learned" over the past five weeks. There's just enough time for one more installment of Believe It or Not for the preseason.
Note: That was the concept Saturday morning. Before the wildest cutdown day I can remember. We'll still get to it, but we need to spend a minute on LeSean McCoy and Carlos Hyde. Bonus Content!
The LeSean McCoy signing is a big problem for Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson.
The Chiefs gave McCoy three million dollars guaranteed after he was cut by the Bills. For reference, that's more than Williams and Thompson combined. This is a former Pro Bowl running back who starred in Andy Reid's offense in Philadelphia. This is terrible news for anyone who drafted Williams or Thompson before Saturday.
Verdict: Believe it.
I don't care if you think McCoy is now the third (or fourth) most talented back in Kansas City. I'm not even sure I disagree. The coach who drafted McCoy just brought him in on a deal that pays him significantly more than they paid the starter last year. This matters.
I still expect Williams to be the best back in Fantasy, but he's now more of a low-end No. 2 or flex in non-PPR. McCoy becomes a low-end flex who is also a lottery ticket for Fantasy. If Reid makes McCoy the feature back I fully expect he'll be a top-12 back in Fantasy. I'm still drafting Thompson, but it's in the final round as a purely speculative pick.
Carlos Hyde to Houston ruins Duke Johnson's appeal.
The Texans traded for Hyde on Saturday and put to rest any chance that Johnson has a breakout campaign. After, all, these two were just on a team together a year ago in Cleveland and Hyde dominated touches. Hyde now assumes the Lamar Miller role and should be viewed as a low-end No. 2 running back. Johnson is just a PPR flex.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I had Johnson projected as if someone was coming in to take half of the rush attempts in Houston. And I'm not sure Hyde is good enough to get much more than that. Maybe most importantly, the types of touches Hyde will take away are the type that may not be very profitable in Houston anyway. They improved their offensive line over the weekend but the middle could still be a mess.
Johnson will still be the best back in Houston and he'll be a borderline No. 2 in PPR.
Curtis Samuel is breaking out as the No. 1 receiver in Carolina.
We couldn't get through a week of Panthers' practices without someone singing the praises of Samuel, sharing a video of him catching a deep pass, or both. The Panther team site even coined the phrase 'Summer of Sam(uel)' and one writer speculated Samuel may just be the Panthers' No. 1 receiver. Even Matt Harmon chimed in, calling Samuel a breakout. With this noise and the way he finished 2018, it's well past past time to buy into the Samuel hype.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
It's not that I don't think Samuel is a good player. I certainly wouldn't question Harmon's evaluation of his talent. But I do expect Christian McCaffrey to see 22% of the team's targets. I'd project the tight ends around that number as well. The bigger issue? I still believe D.J. Moore is better.
Moore averaged more yards per target, per reception and per game than Samuel last year. He did all of that as a 21-year-old rookie, while Samuel was in his second year. The only thing Samuel did better was reach the end zone, which I don't find as compelling as a predictor of future success. Both of these receivers are talented and both could be top-40 options. But I'll still take Moore at his cost.
The one thing I do take away from the Samuel hype? Cam Newton has his deepest pool of targets yet and should have a monster year.
Lamar Jackson is going to throw the ball 450 times and be a No. 1 quarterback.
You've no doubt seen the Jackson hype this preseason. John Harbaugh has talked about changing the way the game is played and Jackson has said he thinks he'll throw 30 times per game. I've even contributed to it, putting Jackson in both my sleepers and my breakouts columns. Jamey Eisenberg posited that Jackson could be the first quarterback to throw for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000. He's now a consensus top-12 quarterback in the CBS rankings and he'd be even higher if we ranked for leagues that score four points per pass touchdown.
Verdict: Believe it.
Jackson has an offense tailored to his skills by Greg Roman, a coach who has orchestrated top-12 scoring offenses in five of his last six years as a coordinator. He has a pair of talented young tight ends in Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst, who he's already shown a great connection with. He has a pair of rookie receivers in Miles Boykin and Marquise Brown who have legitimate NFL No. 1 receiver upside. Most importantly, he has his rushing ability, which is, quite frankly, unmatched in the NFL.
Jackson probably won't have a 3,000/1,000 season. He probably won't be a top-five Fantasy quarterback. But he might. And you want that type of upside on your roster. Especially when it's available in Round 10 or later.
David Montgomery and Miles Sanders are startable Week 1 as the best backs on their teams.
In April we weren't sure there was a feature back in the draft besides Josh Jacobs. After the performances we got from Montgomery and Sanders this preseason you could say we have at least three. Sanders made short work of Jordan Howard, Corey Clement and the other 17 running backs in Philadelphia. Beat writers were not shy about telling us he is the best back there, and he wasn't shy about showing it.
The Bears started camp telling us they were going to use Mike Davis and finished camp talking about how they wanted to limit Tarik Cohen's work. I don't think that's a coincidence as Montgomery showed us in preseason action that he can do both back's jobs.
Both of these running backs should be the starters on their own teams and your Fantasy team.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I actually do believe Sanders and Montgomery will lead their respective teams in touches. They'll probably even lead them in Fantasy points. But I'm far less certain either will be a top-25 back in PPR. Both of these teams believe in spreading touches around and keeping their running backs fresh. I expect both coaches to use (at least) three running backs in a game. That makes it difficult to trust either of these rookies as more of a flex until we see the usage.
The Cardinals are hopeless.
Well the hype didn't last long. Kliff Kingsbury's new offense was embarrassed during the preseason. Kyler Murray didn't lead a touchdown drive and David Johnson looked just as boring as he was in 2018. The offensive line can't block anyone and none of those rookie receivers look like they have a clue. Even Christian Kirk has been a disappointment. Don't draft any Cardinals.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
I was the low guy on Murray before camp but it's kind of troubling how far he's fallen during the preseason. We haven't even seen Kingsbury's offense yet. We have no idea if it's going to work. I'm still at my default setting with this offense. What's that?
The offensive line is terrible. So is the defense. That could make Johnson's job really hard. Murray has immense talent and if Kingsbury's offense works they could make all of us who didn't believe look foolish. But that's an if. You can't draft any Cardinals player other than Johnson as a starter and feel good about it. And I wouldn't want to draft Johnson before the second round. But I'd still love to get Murray late as my No. 2 quarterback because of the upside he possesses, and I'm drafting Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald as No. 3 receivers.
