If you miss on your first-round pick, you can survive, but it's tough. If you miss on two early-round picks, your team is probably toast.
Those first few picks aren't just valuable because they're the highest-upside players in Fantasy; it's also because you should be able to feel pretty comfortable that you won't miss. Which means avoiding landmines is as much a key as anything else.
That means avoiding busts. We've all got our player types we don't want to target — I generally want to avoid players coming off career seasons, but your mileage may vary — and our experts have their lists of who they're avoiding ready for their drafts.
That's what we're looking into today: Who we're avoiding, and which bust candidates we're not worried about as much as everyone else seems to be.
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Here's who you'll be hearing from:
- Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
- Dave Richard, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
- Heath Cummings, CBS Fantasy Senior Writer
- Adam Aizer, Fantasy Football Today host
- Ben Gretch, CBS Fantasy Editor
- Chris Towers, CBS Fantasy Senior Editor
1) Which of the first four running backs has the most bust potential?
- Jamey Eisenberg: I guess it's Saquon Barkley simply because his Average Draft Position is No. 1 overall. There's only one way to go for him if things go bad.
- Dave Richard: We had an email on our podcast point out how McCaffrey's numbers spiked once Cam Newton hurt his shoulder and the Panthers offense relied more on the running back. He scored nearly 10.0 non-PPR points more and over 11.0 PPR points more from Week 10 through Week 16 (he didn't play much in Week 17). Indeed, he averaged 19.7 touches per game until Week 9 and 24.0 from Week 10 on. So, if McCaffrey falls back to a lesser touch number, he could under-deliver in comparison to Barkley, Kamara and Elliott.
- Heath Cummings: I'll go with Alvin Kamara. We saw his averages regress last season. If they stay more normal and the touchdown rate regresses, he may not be worth a first round pick.
- Adam Aizer: Christian McCaffrey. One of our Fantasy Football Today Podcast listeners pointed out how much better McCaffrey was after Cam Newton took a vicious hit from T.J. Watt in Week 10. A healthier Cam might actually be a bad thing for McCaffrey.
- Ben Gretch: Other than an injury or Ezekiel Elliott holding out, the workloads here are so secure it's hard to see these guys busting. If we assume everyone's on the field, it's probably Barkley because his offense has the potential to be awful.
- Chris Towers: How can it not be Barkley? I suppose the argument is that, because he was in a bad offense last season, he's immune from the effects of a bad offense? However, he went from averaging 25.1 Fantasy points per game with Odell Beckham to 17.6 without him, and now he might play a substantial part of the season with a rookie at QB.
2) Who is one player you are absolutely not drafting in the early rounds?
- Jamey: I find myself avoiding Le'Veon Bell a lot. I don't like his ADP at No. 10 overall in PPR. If I can get him in Round 2 then that's OK, but I'm worried about him as a first-round pick.
- Dave: Patrick Mahomes, but it's not because I think he's going to be a bust. I just prefer to wait for a quarterback. If someone else wants to burn a first- or second-round pick on him, let them. It leaves a good player at another position to fall to me.
- Heath: Antonio Brown. I'm worried about his new location, his new quarterback and a possible deterioration of skill.
- Adam: Mahomes is simply not going to be as good as he was last season, and I bet he doesn't finish as QB1 this season. He's not much better than Rodgers, Luck and Watson, so he shouldn't be drafted much earlier than them.
- Ben: I used to try to stay flexible, so there was a point where I would draft anyone, but I've given that up in recent years. I won't get Bell or Brown where they go. A little later, it's running backs who don't catch enough passes like Derrick Henry and Sony Michel.
- Chris: Davante Adams. Taking him as the first or second WR off the board means you're chasing last year's production, and that's usually not the way you want to go. He'll always score a lot of touchdowns, but I don't see Adams getting to nearly 1,400 yards again, and there's too many high-volume guys who can.
3) Who is one popular bust candidate you aren't worried about?
- Jamey: I've seen Hunter Henry labeled as a bust, and I don't get it. If he stays healthy, given Philip Rivers' love for tight ends, Henry could be among the top three Fantasy tight ends this year.
- Dave: Anybody worried about James Conner sharing carries or trailing off should spend some time watching Steelers games from last year when he went from a backup no one knew about to a Fantasy hero. Then they should check the track record of Steelers running backs going back five or six years. This team knows how to make running backs thrive. Conner's worth a first-round pick.
- Heath: Tyler Lockett. While he won't match last year's efficiency I think he can make up for that with more volume.
- Adam: Todd Gurley. I wouldn't say I'm not worried about Gurley, but I'm less worried that many people seem to be. The offseason is long and boring, so we tend to overreact to news stories, and I think that's what happened in Gurley's case.
- Ben: I wouldn't say I'm not worried about Damien Williams, but I must be a lot less worried than the market because I keep drafting him everywhere. There's inherent value in getting the first crack to be the lead guy; he'll have to give the Chiefs reason to replace him, and if the offense is great, it's hard to imagine he won't be productive in some way or another.
- Chris: I can't say I'm not worried about Gurley, but I think I'm less worried than most — jinx, Adam. Arthritis in the knee sounds scary, and it is, but among other RB in his range on Draft Day, Nick Chubb is unproven, Dalvin Cook has been underwhelming (and has plenty of injury risk of his own), and Damien Williams has exactly five good games in his career. It's not that scary when you look at it that way.
4) Who has more bust potential: George Kittle or Zach Ertz?
- Jamey: Kittle. His touchdowns should go up, but I expect a dip in his catches and yards. He's still great, but I have more faith in Ertz.
- Dave: Following a 116-1163-8 season, Ertz's numbers have nowhere to go but down, particularly after the Eagles added a bunch of pass catchers during the offseason. Kittle's yardage was pretty ridiculous last year but his touchdown total, five, has room for improvement.
- Heath: Kittle for sure. A lot of his production came after the catch on really long plays and most players find that hard to repeat.
- Adam: I like both but since I have to answer, I'll say Ertz! His yards per catch is rarely exceptional, and he had 156 targets last season, which is bonkers. If the addition of DeSean Jackson and a better running game in Philadelphia leads to fewer targets, I could see Ertz being disappointing.
- Ben: Kittle. Both Kittle and Ertz could run into more target competition, but there was only one other pass-catcher in San Francisco last year who played 16 games, and it was Kendrick Bourne. Kittle also became the first non-running back since 2013 to lead the league in yards after the catch; he has virtually no shot to repeat the 873 YAC he added.
- Chris: I think it's probably Kittle. We're probably not going to see three plays of 70-plus yards again, in addition to three more of at least 43 yards. He's a big-play receiver, obviously, but so much of his production came after the catch that I think you have to bake in some regression there.
5) Who has more bust potential: Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, or Aaron Rodgers?
- Jamey: Mahomes. But it's more about his ADP and the expectations. I still like him as the No. 1 QB this season.
- Dave: Without considering ADP, I'll say Watson's mild injury risk playing behind a still-suspect offensive line opens him up to be the biggest disappointment of the bunch.
- Heath: I'll go with Rodgers just because he has a new coach and system, he has age risk, and he starts and finishes the year with the Vikings and Bears.
- Adam: Mahomes, because he's being drafted the earliest. Historically, QBs who have eye-popping seasons like Mahomes tend to regress quite a bit. Peyton Manning was QB4 in 2014 after his historic 2013 season.
- Ben: Rodgers. A new system, a lack of high-end production since his receiving corps turned over, and the reality that he's 35 and ran less last year all make his floor a lot lower.
- Chris: If you're drafting Mahomes in the first round, it's going to be him. He could replicate last year's production or come close, but history suggests it's unlikely. The best comparison for what Mahomes did last season was Dan Marino's 5,084-yard, 48-touchdown season in 1984, his second year in the league; he still led the NFL in yards and touchdowns the following year, but had 4,137 and 30, respectively. Regression is coming.
6) Which WR has the most bust potential?
- Jamey: Adam Thielen is a candidate for me mostly because of his ADP at the end of Round 2. That's too soon given that Minnesota wants to run the ball more this year.
- Dave: Hands down, it's Brown. Targets from Derek Carr aren't the same as targets from Ben Roethlisberger. Years of chemistry and trust also can't be built with Carr in one offseason. Even if Jon Gruden force-feeds Brown, I could see him disappointing, which is why he's not a top-five receiver on my board.
- Heath: Other than Brown? It's Thielen. I'm very concerned about his volume in Minnesota with their run-first philosophy.
- Adam: You have to be a little nervous about the Vikings wide receivers considering how little Kirk Cousins threw in the final four games of the season. They want to run the ball, but I still have faith in Thielen and Diggs even though I recognize the bust potential.
- Ben: Among the top names, Brown. He's an awesome player but he's going into a situation I think is a lot worse, not just a little. A big part of it is how Roethlisberger extends plays and Carr seems to throw balls away quickly if the protection isn't there, leading to Roethlisberger attempting far more downfield passes.
- Chris: Amari Cooper. It feels like we're ignoring all available evidence in order to have him as a third-round pick. Yes, he was better in Dallas, but he still had as many games with 40 yards or fewer (four) as with 75 yards or more, including playoffs. We've always known Cooper can go off for big games; what 2018 didn't show us is whether he can ever be consistent.