There is certainly something appealing about putting together a bust list. This is especially true if you're a bit of a contrarian. Not that I would know anything about that. But it's not all rainbows and unicorns, especially in March. Because all I really have to go on right now are the consensus rankings and that means there are players I genuinely like that end up on the list below.
Kyler Murray certainly qualifies. How could you not be excited by him? He very well could make "the leap" this year.
Mark Ingram? I've been touting Ingram for as long as I've worked at CBS and it's so much fun to watch him hype his teammates.
I've liked Kerryon Johnson since he was at Auburn.
Jared Cook? Okay, let's be honest. I had no trouble putting Jared Cook on this list.
So how did so many players I genuinely like end up in my very first Bust column for 2020? Because everyone else seems to like them a lot more than I do. And the thing about Fantasy Football is that cost matters. If you drafted Patrick Mahomes in Round 1 last year, you know exactly what I'm talking about.
So avoid these eight players at their consensus ranking. If you do and their ADP is lower this summer, I won't have to keep calling them busts.
Busts
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Ugh. Let's get this over with. Murray was the No. 15 quarterback in 2019 on a per-game basis. I expect him to improve. I have him scoring more Fantasy points. I totally agree he's a breakout candidate. But I'm not spending a sixth-round pick (or earlier) on him to hope that Kliff Kingsbury's offense is what we thought it'd be in 2019. If you want to bet on a rookie quarterback breakout, you can bet on Daniel Jones, who was better in Fantasy on a per-game basis. Or Gardner Minshew, who was a better passer as a rookie. Unlike Murray, they'll be almost free on Draft Day.
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Every year we talk about Joe Mixon's upside and how the Bengals are going to use him more as a pass catcher. In 2019, he finally stayed healthy for 16 games and was somehow worse than he was in 2018. Joe Burrow will eventually help this offense score more touchdowns, but what have we seen from rookie quarterbacks lately that makes us think he'll do it in his rookie year? My ranking of Mixon at No. 17 will be too low if he stays healthy for 16 games because other backs will get injured. But there's no reason to draft him like he's any more likely to stay healthy than anyone else.
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Ingram is the choose-your-own adventure of bust picks. Want to go the age route? He's a 30-year-old running back with a talented back behind him and he's more likely to get fewer carries this season than more. How about volume? Ingram saw fewer than 40% of the Ravens rush attempts and just two targets per game. Regression your preference? His 15 touchdowns on 228 touches is a ridiculous rate and there's virtually no chance he repeats five receiving touchdowns with his lack of involvement in the passing game.
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Johnson has missed 14 games in his first two years in the league and I have serious doubts they'll give him a workhorse role again in 2020. Unfortunately a workhorse role is exactly what will be needed on a mediocre Lions offense that figures to be in a bunch of pass-heavy game scripts. I still believe in Johnson's talent, but his durability concerns and the Lions offensive situation keep him out of my top-25 backs.
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Man, we forgave Parker in a hurry, didn't we? He just had a fifth-year breakout that was out of this world and now he's a consensus top-20 wide receiver. It's probably helpful to remember that he'd never topped 800 yards or scored five touchdowns before 2019. It's also important to note that Preston Williams was actually outperforming Parker before his injury. Parker is a very good No. 3 receiver with upside, but there's no chance I'm drafting him as a starter.
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In a different universe I'd call Williams a breakout. He scored the touchdowns in his second year and got the yards in his third. I'd be telling you that touchdown regression would carry him to a top-20 finish in his fourth season. Unfortunately, it looks like the Chargers' plan is to start Tyrod Taylor in 2020 and back him up with a rookie who isn't named Joe or Tua. I like Taylor as a cheap quarterback, but not for his wide receivers. I don't really want to draft Williams or Keenan Allen at their likely cost.
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Ertz would have been a bust in 2019 if not for every relevant wide receiver on the Eagles getting injured. While this team does target tight ends more than any other, Dallas Goedert is coming for his share of those targets. Ertz has never been as efficient as Kelce or Kittle with his targets, so he doesn't belong in their class without an enormous target share.
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Cook ranked 16th in targets and tied for 15th in receptions at the position last year. There's no chance I'm betting on him repeating a career efficiency year at his age. And it's not just that his efficiency last year was outrageous for him, it was off the charts for any tight end. He's a streamer at best in 2020.
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