Each year, I get to decide how I'm going to define a sleeper, and each year I choose multiple approaches. But this time of year there's really only one that makes sense to me. We don't have enough data to start thinking about ADP yet (unless you're talking Best Ball) so I turn to the consensus. Specifically, I looked at Fantasy Pros Consensus Half-PPR rankings and where my personal rankings stand out as outliers.
In other words, who is the industry sleeping on?
The one benefit of doing it this way is I don't have to look for guys being drafted in the later rounds. I could even choose someone as well known as Le'Veon Bell. That's made easier by the fact the current consensus has Bell as the No. 19 running back and a mid-fourth round pick in half PPR. That definitely counts as sleeping on him.
Bell averaged a career-worst 3.2 yards per carry in 2019 and only scored four touchdowns on 311 touches. He still finished better than RB19 in this format. At his career norms he would have had 245 more rushing yards and four more scores. That helps explain how I've got him projected for 1,522 total yards and eight scores this season.
It's difficult to imagine how Bell could be much worse than he was last year in terms of efficiency, and some regression is almost guaranteed. The Jets offensive line will probably be better as well because it couldn't be much worse.
Only seven running backs had more touches than Bell in 2019 and the Jets are paying him way too much to dedicate more resources to the position. He's still worth a pick at the Round 2/3 turn based on volume alone. You should expect a similar workload and more production from Bell in 2020.
Here are the rest of my early sleepers from the beginning of March, including a couple of deeper options for those of you doing Best Ball drafts already.
Jones was a borderline starter on a per-game basis in 2019, and we've seen numerous quarterbacks make a leap in their second year. Jones' athleticism gives him a nice floor and his weapons are as good as any quarterback in the NFL. If he's not a top-10 Fantasy quarterback in 2020, Giants fans should be concerned.
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Minshew was definitively the best rookie passer from a statistical standpoint in 2019. Despite how much money Jacksonville owes Nick Foles, the expectation is they're going with Minshew in 2020. If he improves even a little as a passer, he'll be a low-end starter. He'll also be available in the last round of most one-quarterback leagues.
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As things stand right now, Jackson will pair with Austin Ekeler in the Chargers backfield. It that's still the case in May, Jackson will rank in my top 25 running backs. I expect the Chargers will continue to run a lot of two-back sets and Tyrod Taylor could help Jackson's efficiency because of his threat as a runner. While mobile quarterbacks don't generally throw to running backs often, Taylor did plenty in Buffalo.
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I know Crowder isn't exciting, but WR50? He's been top 40 in each of his last three full seasons. Last year he was WR34 and now Robby Anderson is likely gone. The slot receiver role in an Adam Gase offense has proven profitable almost every year that Gase has run an offense. Crowder dominated targets (25.8%) with Darnold under center in 2019, and I'd expect more of the same in 2020 barring a massive signing.
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It obviously went under the radar just how good Renfrow was in the second half of 2019. In his final seven games, he caught 35 of 45 targets for 490 yards and four touchdowns. That's an 80-1,120-9 pace. That's not a fair expectation, but you don't need him to come anywhere close to that to be a value at his current consensus rank. The Raiders are likely to add weapons in the offseason, but it would be surprising if they add anyone that impacts Renfrow's growing role in the slot.
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This is more of a deep league or Best Ball sleeper. Harmon has only been drafted in about 15% of Best Ball drafts so far despite the fact that he's in line to start opposite Terry McLaurin at this time. Harmon averaged an acceptable 8.3 yards per target as a rookie and played at least 80% of the snaps in six of Washington's final seven games. Unless they add a big name at receiver, I'd expect Harmon to be a viable Best Ball option.
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As bad as things have been for Greg Olsen, he just posted 597 receiving yards in 14 games with Kyle Allen and Will Grier as his quarterbacks. Now he's going to Seattle to play with Russell Wilson. It seems unlikely Olsen will play 16 games for the first time since 2016, but I would expect him to be a starting tight end as long as he's healthy. That makes him the perfect late-round sleeper.
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It does not look like the Colts are going to keep Eric Ebron around. Assuming they don't replace him with Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry, it looks like Jack Doyle will be the lead tight end in Indianapolis. This is an offense that has thrown 309 passes to their tight ends over thee past two seasons. Doyle will still have to share with someone, but this could be a repeat of 2017 when he saw 108 targets in 15 games. That would almost certainly make him a starter in any league that rewards catches.
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