One of Fantasy Football's cheat codes has been to lean on Sean Payton's running backs. He had countless stud running backs with the Saints, the biggest of which being Alvin Kamara when he unearthed him as a rookie in 2017. Payton's fingerprints were even on the breakout campaign of Tiki Barber in 2000.
Does Payton have another running back ready to unleash? Or will 2024 be a lot like 2023?
On Sunday, Javonte Williams started against the Colts and looked pretty good against their first-team defense. He had just 15 yards on four carries, including a third-and-1 conversion (a designed short-yardage play), and he added a 5-yard catch.
Jaleel McLaughlin, who was the next back up after Williams, looked much quicker and had better results, albeit against Colts backup defenders. Playing nearly all of his snaps with rookie quarterback Bo Nix and working into the second half, McLaughlin gained 30 yards on seven carries and made his biggest impact on a wheel route in the third quarter for a 22-yard reception to set up a touchdown plunge from rookie Audric Estime. McLaughlin also returned kickoffs for the Broncos.
With apologies to Estime, Samaje Perine, Tyler Badie and Blake Watson, all of whom played against the Colts (Badie and Watson even scored; Perine bobbled a pass that was intercepted), this backfield appears destined to be handled by Williams and McLaughlin.
"They all had a spark," Payton said after the game. "Javonte had enough carries, Jaleel certainly provided a spark."
The only question is if one of them can be the primary guy and not split with the other.
You could look to last year for answers but they might be obsolete. Williams had one game with over 70% of the snaps for Denver in 2023 and it was in a blowout win over Cleveland in Week 12. He had three other games with at least 59% of the snaps; Perine had one of those too. In the Broncos' remaining 12 games, no rusher had more that 53% of the snaps.
Maybe the split was by design because of the limitations the runners had -- Williams was working his way back from a torn ACL and McLaughlin was a rookie. Or maybe the Broncos just couldn't commit to one of them. Rarely did one of them post numbers that helped the Broncos, much less Fantasy managers.
It would make sense for Williams to be given another shot to handle more work now that the coaches are satisfied with the shape he's in. He rediscovered his burst and shiftiness and his knee isn't an issue anymore. He should be better than he was last year.
"We were in draft meetings and I went back and put on his college tape, and he was in the locker room, and I called him in and said, 'This is the runner I want,'" Payton explained. "That player that I saw was versatile, outside/inside."
"I think we've seen that from him in camp. I'm encouraged with his progress."
But the one thing McLaughlin offers Denver is legit speed -- he's faster than Williams. He showed it throughout their win over the Colts and especially in his route on his big reception. He even did OK on inside runs where he played with some power. And now that he's in his second season, McLaughlin has more experience and should also be able to handle things better this year.
So if both backs are in better position this year, it stands to reason both should elevate their games as long as they're able to play. But that doesn't mean one will necessarily pull away from the other.
Another factor is that the Broncos offense probably isn't going to be particularly explosive. Nix is clearly the Broncos' best thrower -- he outdid Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on Sunday -- but he excels at making the quick, simple throws and has proven to sometimes struggle with accuracy, much less even taking chances downfield.
Not that Payton has a problem with that.
"I liked the timing, the tempo of when we're releasing (the ball)," Payton said. "That was a big issue for us a year ago with the minus plays."
That lean into quick passing with a rookie quarterback who has downfield throwing questions is a double-edged sword. It'll encourage defenses to take chances in their coverage and focus on stopping the run, but it will also mean more targets for their running backs as Nix can and will check it down (or throw the wheel route). Broncos running backs had 11 targets at Indy, four from Nix.
We could see the proverbial thunder-and-lightning approach from the Broncos' backfield. If that's the case, Williams is the obvious winner. He can be their primary back, their clock-killing back and their goal-line back. McLaughlin could be the change-of-pace guy. And both can catch, so it could end up that one or the other could work third downs. Payton has options.
Williams could even evolve into being a safe No. 2 running back from week to week. His Average Draft Position as of this writing is 91, a Round 8 pick. I'd take that value all day. He even works as a Round 7 pick.
McLaughlin is appropriately being taken on average in the Round 12-13 range. His speed is terrific and he can contribute through the air but his path to being a beneficial Fantasy stud was blocked by a worse version of Williams last year. It would take Williams missing time this year for him to have a crack at helping you win some weeks.