On Tuesday night, Dan Schneier backed up all of his "superior athlete" talk and bested Adam Aizer in a game of charity tennis. Incredible stuff. I finished work, got some ice cream, and fell asleep. Adam and Dan are among the most relentless grinders that I know, though. They're out here putting in work on the tennis court even after a day of work. Adam probably recorded a podcast afterwards.
I needed the rest. I've been on the grind a bit, myself. Here's what I've been working on lately:
Preseason rookie film thread
Rookie roundup (notes on roughly 40 rookies)
Evaluating all 32 offensive lines
Updating the offseason rush scheme research with preseason data from new play-callers
Examining the NFL's new play-callers
My favorite upside picks in each of the first rounds
Unheralded rookies to know (Who's this year's Puka?!?!?!?!)
I also have been planning out a new podcast that Dan and I are bringing to FFT for the 2024 regular season.
We recorded our first episode on Tuesday, joined by three members of the FantasyLife crew. Matthew Berry led things off by telling us about Guillotine leagues (I'm going to try these leagues out for the first time this season! I'd be happy to update y'all in this space on how it goes if people want that. You might have to remind me to do so.), and then Dwain McFarland and Ian Hartitz took over for a discussion about what the 2024 Fantasy football season may have in store for us. It was a super fun conversation, and we covered a ton of ground. Ian and Dwain are two of my favorite Fantasy football analysts to talk ball with, and I respect the heck out of the work that they do. You can catch that episode on YouTube, and I believe that we'll have it live on the FFT Express podcast steam. If you want to help us grow the show, please subscribe to the FFT Express stream and leave a rating/review that mentions our show!
Let's get to Dan's rankings!
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Dan's rankings are not bold enough!
I hope that I am not being irresponsible, here. If you find yourself having recently followed me blindly into a way-too-early selection of Jonathon Brooks, maybe consider not following anyone blindly.
Dan, I think that your rankings are more conservative than your actual opinions. Maybe that's a good thing and I am just a naive rookie who has never even played in a Guillotine league before. I just found a CBS league that we drafted months ago where I certainly left myself thin on contingency options. Maybe I take too many big swings. I do wanna draft with conviction, though!
I did not land Puka Nacua in some rookie drafts in 2023. That's crazy! I was into him as a prospect from the jump, and the landing spot with L.A. was a perfect fit, and still, I didn't get him in all of my drafts. How is that possible? I had leaguemates who knew how much I liked him and were willing to be more aggressive in drafting him than I was.
That's an outlier type of example, of course. But isn't that part of what we are attempting to do here, Dan? Finding outliers is our job, right? Why are we writing sleeper columns? Surely not just to fill the SEO void. Who cares? You do, enough to do the work. No one else cares if you were a little bit "too high" on Tank Bigsby. You might have nameless accounts pester you online, but that will dissipate. You're not going to get fired unless the economy collapses or the NFL gets shut down, and if that happens, did it matter if you made sure to not be too bold with a Bucky Irving ranking? You do absolutely fantastic work. You know it, you trust it.
I'm done with my Dan rant. Well, actually, that's not true. I've promised to pick his rankings apart. I'm continuing my rant but now directing it at you. I'll get back to Dan and his rankings after this. You're also doing fantastic work, right? You're here reading this newsletter. What percentage of people drafting Fantasy football teams this August are doing that much? Trust your dang convictions. If it's wrong, we can adjust.
Players who I am much higher on than Dan:
I thought Dan was a huge Jayden Daniels believer!
Jayden Daniels -- Dan has Daniels at QB12. I have Daniels at QB8.
Give me the upside! Daniels has the potential to be a true cheat code for Fantasy. If he's not, I probably grabbed Caleb Williams too. Streaming the position is always an option if you strike out on finding top-five upside. Does Kyler offer top-five upside? Do Jordan Love and Dak Prescott? Maybe. Things have to go pretty much perfectly in their offenses to hit that level of production. That's not the case with Daniels.
Yo, I'm not excited for the Kliff Kingsbury Horizontal Raid 2.0 either! I love the pace, though. I asked people if they saw Kyler Murray as bringing the same type of upside as Daniels and why, and many pointed towards his 2020 season. He finished as the QB3 in Fantasy in 2020. Isn't pointing out that fact actually supporting evidence for why Daniels should be drafted higher?
Washington is 23rd in passing yardage and 28th in passing touchdowns in my projections. And still, Daniels is the QB7 in my projections. I'm drafting him as the QB8.
Geno Smith -- Dan has Geno at QB23. I have Geno at QB20.
This is a small difference, but I just wanted to point out that Dan seems low on Seattle's offense. It surprised me, because I thought that he was pretty high on this offense. He has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at WR42, I have him at WR35. I'm also a little bit higher on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. He has Noah Fant at TE22. I have Fant at TE18. Dan has Kenneth Walker at RB16, in his fifth tier of Fantasy running backs, which he denoted with a "solid drop" (presumably from Tier 4 to 5). Dan has David Montgomery ahead of Walker. I have Walker at RB13 and continue to feel like I'd rather draft Walker than Travis Etienne or Saquon Barkley, not that the hypothetical scenario ever presents itself in my draft strategy. I am slightly higher on Zach Charbonnet than Dan is.
Maybe I'm just way too high on Seattle's new coaching staff.
Jahymr Gibbs and De'Von Achane
Dan has Gibbs at RB9, behind Isiah Pacheco and Derrick Henry. I have Gibbs at RB4 and am fine with taking him at the back end of Round 1 if you want to swing for legendary RB upside. He's a David Montgomery injury away from being like 95% of CMC for Fantasy purposes.
Dan has Achane at RB10. I have Achane at RB5. I will place this bet every time. It's a rare opportunity, in my opinion.
Rachaad White -- Dan has White at RB17, behind Walker in Tier 5. I have White at RB14. I wonder if Dan feels too certain on this one. White is a young player who could get better. He could stand to benefit from the coaching change and offensive line upgrade in an unexpectedly big way. If the split between White and Irving is larger than we anticipate, White's Fantasy points could pile up quickly. He could basically be what Etienne was last year.
For what it's worth, I haven't clicked White's name anywhere this summer. I'm fully in on Team Bucky. But I would draft him if the situation presented itself. This is your Joe Mixon, it seems. I basically moved Mixon down to the point that I know I'll never land him. I am totally fine conceding that it could be a huge year if he happens be the one finishing off the majority of drives for Houston's offense. Maybe that's where Dan is on White? Why isn't Bucky higher in his rankings, then?
Javonte Williams -- Dan has Williams at RB32. I have Williams at RB23.
I see a sneaky path to upside for Williams, but I'm not so sure how realistic it is after watching more of Denver's preseason action. The Broncos made it a point to get Jaleel McLaughlin involved with the first-team offense, particularly on passing downs. Dan is a bit higher on McLaughlin than me. Maybe that's all there is to know when it comes to his ranking of Javonte. I'm totally fine drafting Williams, I want at least some exposure to the Denver backfield. Samaje Perine is gone, and someone is going to catch a lot of balls. If you think that it's McLaughlin (here's his collegiate receiving data if you're into that sorta thing), then he's definitely a name to have in mind late in drafts.
The Chargers backfield
Dan has J.K. Dobbins at RB40. I have Dobbins at RB36.
Dan has Gus Edwards at RB35. I have Gus Bus at RB37.
Dan has Kimani Vidal at RB57. I have the rook at RB45.
Blake Corum, Ray Davis, Trey Benson, Tank Bigsby, Tyrone Tracy, and Bucky Irving
Dan has all of these backs outside of his top-40, with Irving being the lowest! I thought Dan was higher on Bucky than me! He's certainly lower on Rachaad White than I am.
Below, you'll see where I've most recently landed on this group.
These backs are always shifting around. Zamir White is on a free fall! It feels unlikely that he's going to have the backfield to himself. Cutting into his snap rate at all drastically cuts into White's projection. He already offered a thin-margin type of projection with little upside. He needs a massive heaping of rush attempts. He's fine if you need someone to help out a Jonathon Brooks team, but I don't see him as much different than Chuba Hubbard and Ezekiel Elliott. Those two are much cheaper. I know that White is probably a much better player than Zeke, but the difference between the Dallas and Las Vegas offensive team-level projections are massive. If choosing a small-win player to help me patch together the early portion of the season, I don't want to pay a premium.
Players who Dan is much higher on than me:
Kyler Murray -- Dan has Kyler at QB5. I have him at QB9.
You can read my thoughts on Murray in this Twitter thread. I recognize that Murray has upside to finish as a top-five QB. I don't hate the idea of ranking him this high. I'd rather swing on Anthony Richardson or Jayden Daniels. I think that Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud have a more-likely path to putting up a top-eight QB score and have a similar peak outcome.
That might seem off-base, since those two don't rush as much as Murray does. Their offenses are way better, though. Cincinnati is sixth in implied points according to Vegas lookahead lines. The Texans are ninth. Arizona is 21st.
This is how I'm currently prioritizing the QB position in drafts. Is Murray more likely to hit the top to his range of outcomes than Daniels? Yes. I am very excited about Arizona's offensive outlook. Murray might be more likely to hit the top to his range of outcomes than Richardson. He's certainly not a bad pick.
The top to his range of outcomes is not as high as Richadson or Daniels. Those two offer significantly more rushing upside. Richardson's Colts have a notably higher implied point total than Arizona. If I'm drafting Richardson or Daniels, I'm looking to pair them with Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, Kirk Cousins, or Geno Smith. Those four play in offenses that I want to invest in, and I'm totally fine investing an extra pick into one of those four. Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, and Matthew Stafford are fine if they fall. I want one extra QB attached to a good offense to pair with Richardson and Daniels if those two struggle or miss time early on. I want to take a swing at potentially landing the QB1, and the math (and my eyes) tell me that Richardson and Daniels are more likely of doing that in fast-paced offenses than Murray is in a slug-it-out James Conner-led Cardinals offense. I'm fine paying a bit for insurance in the later rounds if it allows me to take that swing.
Brian Robinson Jr. -- Dan has Robinson at RB27. I have him at RB34.
I've been moving Robinson up. I'm definitely taking Javonte and Jaylen Warren ahead of him. Way more receiving upside exists with those two, and I think Warren's offense is going to produce massive rushing volume too. I also think Warren is an insanely explosive player who has the potential to put up monster numbers if healthy and serving as an every-down back. If Najee Harris were to miss time, a Warren + Cordarrelle Patterson pairing would be so much fun and Warren would be a weekly top-20 option at the RB position.
I also prefer Aaron Jones. To me, his 2024 formula is similar to Robinson's -- the offense will probably suck, the pace of play will be awesome, and Jones is a more explosive player with a play-caller who I actually believe in.
Cooper Kupp -- Dan has Kupp at WR8. I have Kupp at WR22.
One of Dan's three bold predictions on our most recent Beyond the Boxscore episode was that Kupp was going to outscore Puka Nacua in 2024. Couldn't be me. This one will hurt if it turns out to be true.
Chris Olave -- Dan has Olave at WR9. I have Olave at WR15.
Wow! I feel somewhere between neutral and reasonably optimistic about Olave's 2024 expectations. Someone, if you know Dan's reasoning, please fill me in!
Marquise Brown -- Dan has Hollywood at WR37. I have Brown at WR49.
Dan has Brown in the same tier as Xavier Worthy, which is a clear divergence from the rest of our similarly bullish Chiefs expectations. Dan dropped a bold prediction that Mahomes would finish as the QB1. How has this become bold? One extremely weird season (which also ended in him hoisting the Lombardi), and we are down on Mahomes? Maybe I should be higher on Brown.
DeAndre Hopkins -- Dan has Hopkins at WR38. I have Nuk at WR45.
I was very high on Hopkins at the beginning of draft process, but I really do not like starting the season hurt at his age. I hope that Dan is right. I have lots of Dynasty teams that are counting on Hopkins to serve as a passable free WR3.
Players Dan and I are in lockstep on
We're fading James Cook and Etienne
Of the two fades, Etienne is the one that scares me. Jacksonville's offense could be better than in 2023, and Etienne was a Fantasy monster. So much of that came through touchdowns, though. Etienne doesn't look good at all in my projections. The rushing efficiency is so bad, and I have no faith in this coaching staff to fix things.
We're both back in on Christian Watson
One of my Beyond the Boxscore bold takes was that Watson leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Dan loves it, of course.
We're both high on Xavier Worthy
I do worry a bit about his preseason 'go' route rate. If Worthy is only a field-stretcher, then Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce are probably going to have huge seasons.
Worthy was good with the ball in his hands at Texas, and Andy Reid used him in pre-snap motion some this preseason. I am comfortable drafting him as if he might be more than just a deep threat, because the upside is massive if that scenario plays out.
If you want more from me and Dan, check out the podcast that we just recorded with Matthew Berry, Dwain McFarland, and Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife.com.
