I've never written tiers before, but Adam Aizer asked me to handle them for our Fantasy Football Today podcast. Since I already gave him the list, I thought it made sense to put them in a column as well. So here we go.
These are my quarterback tiers prior to the start of training camp. These tiers can -- and likely will -- change prior to the end of August. But this is how I would draft these quarterbacks in the middle of July.
And for context, this is based on six points for passing touchdowns, one point for every 25 yards passing and minus-2 points for each interception, as well as one point for every 10 yards rushing. Hopefully, these tiers can help with any draft decisions you have to make this year.
Tier 1
Patrick Mahomes
Jalen Hurts
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Last year, Allen led all quarterbacks at 25.5 Fantasy points per game, but I'm expecting a slight step back with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. I also expect Allen to score about seven rushing touchdowns compared to the career-high 15 he had in 2023.
Mahomes had the worst Fantasy year of his career at 20.1 points per game, but I expect a rebound season with the addition of receivers Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. We'll see what happens with any suspension for Rashee Rice, but Mahomes enters training camp as my No. 1 quarterback.
As for Hurts and Jackson, they both should be special once again. Hurts has been a top-three quarterback each of the past two years, and Jackson has rushed for at least 800 yards in three of the past five seasons. He's been the NFL MVP twice in that span.
Tier 2
Anthony Richardson
C.J. Stroud
Joe Burrow
Dak Prescott
Richardson is everyone's favorite breakout quarterback this year, and hopefully, he can stay healthy after ending 2023 in Week 5 with an injured shoulder. If you project his two full games over a 17-game schedule, he was on pace for 3,596 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, along with 816 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Let's see if he can live up to the hype, but I'm all in as my No. 5 quarterback.
Stroud and Burrow also have top-five upside, and we know the story with both of these guys. Stroud had a standout rookie campaign (20.7 points per game) in 2023 and now gets Stefon Diggs to go with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. And Burrow, when healthy, has the potential to score 25-plus Fantasy points per game like he did in 2022. He's expected to make a full recovery from last year's wrist injury.
Prescott was the No. 2 quarterback last year at 23.5 Fantasy points per game, and he might be asked to produce at a higher level this season with the Cowboys having a suspect run game. Prescott has averaged at least 23.5 Fantasy points per game in four of the past five years.
Tier 3
Kyler Murray
Jordan Love
Jayden Daniels
Murray has the chance to be fantastic now that he's two years removed from the ACL tear he suffered in 2022, and the Cardinals gave him a significant weapon in rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. I would have no problem if you considered Murray a Tier 2 quarterback this year.
Last year, Love took over for Aaron Rodgers and averaged 22.5 Fantasy points per game, including seven outings with at least 26.3 Fantasy points. He has a deep receiving corps, and we could see Love perform at a higher level again in 2024.
I wouldn't be surprised if Daniels led all quarterbacks in rushing yards this season, which is why I have him ranked as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in his rookie campaign. He ran for 885 yards in 14 games at LSU in 2022 and 1,134 yards in 12 games in 2023.
Tier 4
Brock Purdy
Caleb Williams
Tua Tagovailoa
Trevor Lawrence
Jared Goff
These quarterbacks are all low-end starting options in one-quarterback leagues, and all of them have the potential to score at least 20 Fantasy points per game this season. Purdy (21.6) and Goff (20.0) did that last season, and Goff has a tremendous schedule in 2024 with only three outdoor games all year.
I'm hopeful that Tagovailoa and Lawrence crack the 20-point threshold this season, and both finished just under 18.5 points per game in 2023. Tagovailoa is easy to buy into with the Dolphins receiving corps, and he just led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 with 4,624. If he can go over 30 touchdowns for the first time in his career then this could be his breakout campaign.
Williams doesn't have the same upside as fellow rookie Daniels, but I still like the situation for Williams in his first year. He has tremendous weapons in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze, and Williams should be close to 20 Fantasy points per game this season.
Tier 5
Justin Herbert
Kirk Cousins
Matthew Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Deshaun Watson
Will Levis
Baker Mayfield
I changed this tier from the podcast to include Levis and Mayfield, and it's best to view these guys as fallback No. 2 quarterbacks. I'd be nervous if any of these quarterbacks were my No. 1 option to open the year.
That being said, there is reason for optimism for all of these guys. Herbert is still one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and could overcome a potential run-first offense and revamped receiving corps. Cousins (35) and Rodgers (40) could overcome their age and the Achilles injuries they suffered last year. Watson could rebound from the shoulder injury that knocked him out for the final eight games in 2023, and he still has the potential to be a quality rusher.
But as you can see, those guys have plenty of question marks. Stafford feels safe and averaged 25 Fantasy points per game in his final six outings, but he's 36. I like the upside for Levis, but he's unproven. And Mayfield has a new coordinator (Liam Coen) with Dave Canales gone, which hopefully doesn't cause a setback in his production.
Tier 6
J.J. McCarthy
Russell Wilson
Geno Smith
Bryce Young
Derek Carr
Daniel Jones
Bo Nix
Drake Maye
Gardner Minshew
This final tier has several quarterbacks who could be replaced during the season (Wilson, Smith and Jones) or might not start in Week 1 (McCarthy, Maye or Minshew). Most of these guys are best suited for only Superflex or two-quarterback leagues and will not be rostered early in the season in one-quarterback formats.
Now, I do like the setup for McCarthy if he starts the majority of games for the Vikings, and Smith should benefit with the new offense in Seattle. Young could also rebound from a disappointing rookie campaign now that Canales is in Carolina, and the Panthers upgraded their offensive line and receiving corps.
But this group is the final tier for a reason, and these quarterbacks have plenty to prove in 2024. You can also include guys like Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Sam Howell, Drew Lock, Jacoby Brissett and Aiden O'Connell in this tier since all of them might start several games this season.
