We say it every week, but Week 10 was a weird one. The Eagles got most of their offensive starters back and turned in one of their most disappointing efforts of the season .The Washington Football Team produced a pair of top 12 running backs while the Buffalo Bills backs looked utterly worthless for Fantasy. In fact, you might even want to drop them for Kalen Ballage.
One guy you won't be dropping is Brandon Aiyuk after his third straight star performance.
So what does it all mean? Let's take a look in this week's Believe It or Not..
Miles Sanders is the only Eagle you should start regularly.
We thought all Carson Wentz needed was a healthy set of weapons. In Week 8 he got Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert back, Then, after their bye, Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery returned. Wentz responded with 208 yards and no touchdowns on 37 attempts in a loss to the New York Giants. Richard Rodgers led all pass catchers with 60 receiving yards and no Eagles' receiver saw more than seven targets.
With Wentz's general inefficiency and the Eagles' sudden plethora of receiving options, you can trust any of them as more than boom-or-bust flexes.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
James Bradberry and the Giants have done a number against several No. 1 wide receivers. Despite Travis Fulgham's five targets in Week 10, I'd still treat him as the Eagles No. 1 receiver and a low-end No. 2 for Fantasy purposes. Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert still need to be rostered, but I'd like to see a little bit more before I start them. As for Wentz, it's going to be really hard to drop him, or even sit him, with the Browns and Seahawks coming up on the schedule.
The FFT crew breaks down Week 10 and the early waiver wire on the Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast. Follow all of our podcasts and subscribe here.
Both Washington running backs are starters in PPR.
It felt really weird ranking both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic in top 24 in PPR this week. As it turns out, we didn't rank them high enough. For the second week in a row, McKissic led the team in targets, and this week he added his first touchdown of the season. Gibson scored twice himself as both Washington running backs topped 17 Fantasy points. You can start both with confidence moving forward.
Verdict: Believe it.
At least for the next two weeks. One of the reasons we suggested Gibson and McKissic was because of their matchup against the Lions. The next two weeks they face the Bengals and Cowboys. The matchups won't be a problem. The quarterback won't be either.
The past two weeks with Alex Smith, McKissic has 29 targets. He's playing slot receiver half the time, which opens up the possibility of him and Gibson on the field together. Gibson has scored in three straight games and consistently sees double-digit carries when Washington is competitive. It should be very competitive against Cincinnati and Dallas.
Kalen Ballage is a must-start running back until Austin Ekeler returns.
We mostly suggested avoiding the Chargers backs this week because we had no idea how the touches would be split against the Dolphins. After a second straight week of Kalen Ballage dominating touches, the situation has become much more clear. Start Ballage everywhere you have him and go add him where he's available. Until Ekeler is ready to roll, Ballage will be a starting Fantasy running back.
Verdict: Believe it.
Ballage has 33 carries over the past two weeks. He led the Chargers in catches in Week 10 as well, with five. That type of workload makes anyone a must-start running back against the Jets and Bills, who are the Chargers' next two opponents. It's possible Ekeler could get back by the time they face the Patriots in Week 13, but last we heard he'd only progressed to running in straight lines, so it could still be a while.
Brandon Aiyuk will be the best rookie wide receiver rest of season.
In Week 10 Aiyuk dominated targets with 14 of them, and produced seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. It was his second game in a row with double-digit targets and his third game in a row with at least 17 PPR Fantasy points. With George Kittle out, Aiyuk is the team's clear No. 1 receiver and the defense isn't good enough to keep them in run-heavy situations. Aiyuk will be a top-20 receiver rest of season and the best rookie wide receiver.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
But only because there are so many good options. Tee Higgins and Chase Claypool were actually better than Aiyuk in Week 10. CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Justin Jefferson will have something to say about it as well. One thing working against Aiyuk is that he still has his bye remaining. After the bye, Deebo Samuel will presumably return. Then we'll learn more about Aiyuk's role rest of season. It's also possible Aiyuk struggles in Week 14 and Week 15 because matchups against Washington and Dallas could turn into very run-heavy scripts. Regardless, Aiyuk is a must-start receiver until we see otherwise.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are droppable.
Coming into the year we had concerns about touchdowns and targets for the Bills running backs. Now we have to worry about their carries too. Moss seems to pretty clearly be Buffalo's "lead" back, but he has one game with double-digit carries. This is a pass-first, pass-second offense, and Allen is the closest thing the team has to a goal-line back. You don't need to hold either Moss or Singletary through the Bills' bye.
Verdict: Believe it.
This would be harder to do if either Moss or Singletary were performing when they did get the ball. They are not. On Sunday they saw seven targets in the passing game and produced negative 8 yards. Moss has 38 yards rushing on 16 carries in his past two games. When the role isn't there and the efficiency isn't there, you don't have much left to hope for.
