All of the good breakouts are taken! Next year I'm going to ask to write this column in February because at this point it is tough to be unique with a breakouts piece, but I'll give it a shot. I'm determined to provide a list of players who will dramatically outperform their ADP, have their best NFL season to date, and most importantly, do not show up on breakouts lists for Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, or Heath Cummings.
I scoured the rosters for the entire NFL and found five players who fit those criteria:
Zack Moss, Running Back, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon was a Top 12 RB per game in PPR leagues in five of the last six seasons. Mixon accomplished that while averaging 4.2 ypc with a 7.5% explosive run rate in that span. Those numbers are nothing special, and Moss has been as good or better than Mixon if you look at a host of metrics throughout their careers. But this breakout case isn't about whether or not Zack Moss is a better rusher than Joe Mixon. It's about this: You don't have to be a special RB to be a must-start Fantasy option if you play on Joe Burrow's Bengals. This is a great spot for a lead RB, so we just need Moss to stay healthy and get a big enough chunk of the work.
Moss is likely a better pass protector than Chase Brown and he is more suited to handle the early down work. Brown will certainly have a role and cut into Moss's workload in ways that Mixon never had to deal with, but that still leaves plenty of touches for Moss to have a true breakout season, finish as a Top 18 RB, and a be steal at his current ADP.
Rico Dowdle, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys
There were 49 RBs with 100 or more carries in 2023. Ezekiel Elliott ranked 41st or worse in yards per carry, yards after contact per carry, percentage of carries for 0 or negative yards, avoid rate, and explosive run rate. Zeke had 184 carries and his longest run went for 17 yards. If Dowdle isn't better than Elliott, then the Cowboys have a serious RB problem.
We don't know much about Dowdle's ability as a rusher as he is 26 years old and has 96 career carries (89 of them last season), but unless the Cowboys acquire a veteran in a trade, Dowdle has an obvious path to playing time on an offense that led the NFL in scoring in 2023. I can't make a case for him as a Top 12 RB, but Top 24? That seems reasonable. The most exciting thing about Dowdle is that he is not currently a Top 40 RB in ADP.
Malik Nabers, Wide Receiver, New York Giants
I hate having a rookie on a breakouts list. I'm sorry it has come to this, but my mission to find breakouts that were not shared by Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, or Heath Cummings has eliminated most of the good breakouts!
Nabers would be a second or third-round pick in Fantasy drafts if he were on the Arizona Cardinals, but alas, Marvin Harrison Jr. is on the Cardinals and Nabers is on the third-lowest scoring offense from 2023. Nabers has a few things going for him, though:
1. He is supremely talented. Nabers led the nation with 120.7 receiving yards per game and ran a 4.35 40-yard dash
2. He has little target competition with all due respect to Wan'Dale Robinson
3. We've seen rookie WRs with subpar quarterbacks have a big rookie season (Odell Beckham, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle)
4. The Giants were actually 14th in offensive points scored in 2022 and can't be worse on the offensive line than they were last season. Perhaps Brian Daboll can coax another solid offensive season out of this unit
I actually think Fantasy managers are a little too high on Nabers as he is a Top 24 WR in ADP on some sites. I think he should be closer to WR30, but I still like him a little more than Dave and Jamey do and a lot more than Heath does. I'd take him ahead of Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, and Tank Dell to name a few.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Seattle Seahawks
I'm admittedly nervous about this breakout call. Sure, it won't be difficult for JSN to have a career season as he had 63 catches, 628 yards, and four touchdowns as a rookie, but will he be good enough to truly make an impact for your Fantasy squad? The hope here is that he is used more downfield and on the outside and that Tyler Lockett's role diminishes. Lockett will be 32 years old in September and is coming off his worst season since 2017 with stats that suggest the decline is here. We need JSN to pick up the slack.
Let's not forget that Smith-Njigba was the first WR selected in the 2023 NFL Draft and in his sophomore season at Ohio State he outperformed Buckeyes teammates Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. I still think he's a tremendous player. There's also this: In one game that DK Metcalf missed last season, JSN had 4 catches for 63 yards and a TD on 7 targets. That was the only game in which he played more than 46.0% of his snaps out wide.
You wish there were more to go off of here. To believe in a JSN breakout you have to believe in his talent and that Lockett is no longer a big target earner. I'm willing to take the chance around pick 100.
Marquise Brown, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs
Brown's best season came in 2021: 91 catches, 1,008 yards, 6 touchdowns in 16 games. He averaged 14.3 PPR Fantasy Points per game which made him WR24 on a per-game basis. I am banking on a Rashee Rice suspension and a slow start for rookie Xavier Worthy who missed OTAs and minicamp with a hamstring injury. This sets Brown up to be the #2 target for Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.
Brown has shown us flashes of greatness:
-He averaged 18.8 PPR points per game in the first eight games of 2021
-He averaged 18.3 PPR points per game in the first six games of 2022
-He averaged 15.2 PPR points per game in the first five games of 2023
It wouldn't be surprising if he gets off to a great start for the fourth straight season, but I see a great chance for him to keep it going this time around. Brown has been on a bottom-five passing offense (gross passing yards per game) in three of his first five seasons. The Chiefs routinely rank among the leaders in this category. He'll benefit from the passing environment and Kansas City's stated desire to throw the ball downfield more en route to his best Fantasy season yet.