Managers have to get a bit creative in 2024 Fantasy Football drafts if they are selecting outside the top-8 overall. Every elite wide receiver will be off the board and all three of the Tier 1 running backs will also, most likely, be drafted by this point. There aren't any quarterbacks or tight ends worth selecting at No. 10 overall in this class so I opted to draft my favorite breakout candidate for 2024 -- Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. I lean toward wide receiver in Round 1 of half or full-PPR leagues, but Wilson would be my pick regardless because I believe he has the best opportunity of any running back or receiver to jump into the first tier at his position.
Wilson has been the most dominant player at Jets training camp, he was unguardable against Commanders cornerbacks during joint practices and we've seen Aaron Rodgers lean heavily from a volume standpoint on his alpha WR -- he has all the makings of a lead player for my team -- but I'll need help after that. Harrison Jr. was my second-round pick and there's inherent risk in taking a rookie receiver that high, but he's got a clear path toward 130+ targets and is arguably the cleanest receiver prospect since Ja'Marr Chase.
My favorite value picks are Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice in rounds 4-5. My strong conviction that Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game will undergo positive regression from a touchdown standpoint fuels the bullish prediction. Kelce had a five-year low in touchdowns in 2023 and is arguably one of the five best bets for positive touchdown regression. Rice has an opportunity to eat up targets with the space created in the middle of the field by outside speedsters Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy.
Conner is one of my favorite values at the running back position behind an offensive line that was successful and committed to running the ball in 2023 -- specifically in the red zone -- and he hasn't given up almost any of the first-team workload to rookie Trey Benson thus far in training camp.
Overall, this is my favorite team I've drafted out of the 10th spot and it gives me hope that I can still make a run toward the Championship in 2024 even when I don't get a draft pick in the top-eight overall.
Here's how my team came together from the 10th pick:
1.10: Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
2.03: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
3.10: De'Von Achane, RB, MIA
4.03: Travis Kelce, TE, KC
5.10: Rashee Rice, WR, KC
6.03: James Conner, RB, ARI
7.10: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
8.03: Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
9.10: Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
10.03: Rashid Shaheed, WR, NO
11.10: Tyrone Tracy Jr, RB, NYG
12.03: Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
13.10: Adonai Mitchell, WR, IND
14.03: Trevor Lawrence, JAC, QB
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If Rashee Rice wasn't facing a possible suspension, how high would we be drafting him? I would imagine he would end up creeping all the way up to the Round 2/3 turn and rightfully so. The new weapons added in the passing game should open up the middle of the field and that's exactly where Rice does his best work. After being miscast as an outside boundary receiver in college, Andy Reid immediately pinpointed the slot/middle of the field as the area that best fit's Rice skill set. He responded in a big way as a rookie in a system that typically takes time for rookies to get acclimated to. In year 2, Rice has the best rapport with Patrick Mahomes of anyone outside of Travis Kelce on this roster. The closer we get to the start of the regular season the more likely it is that Rice's suspension will be pushed to the 2025 season. Grabbing him in Round 5 could be a league-winning value.
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While I don't think there's bottom-out potential for Harrison given how high his floor is as a prospect, it's impossible to deny that we're buying him close to his ceiling as a top-15 pick overall. I will regret this pick if Harrison doesn't rack up targets in the range we're expecting -- should the offense still run through Trey McBride and James Conner as it did in 2023. If Harrison takes some time to acclimate or hits a rookie wall we could again be looking at a pick I end up regretting. There's some risk baked into his price tag.
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Achane could be a league-winning third-round pick for me if he picks up more red zone work, and more touches overall and Mike McDaniel expands his role as a receiver. Of course, the flip side is that he's never carried a massive workload, had injuries throughout his rookie season, and may not have the NFL build to hold up over a 17-game season. If injuries plague Achane, he will be a bust, but that's not the only make-or-break route. Rookie third-round pick Jaylen Wright is an explosive prospect at the RB position and McDaniel traded up to get him. If this evolves into a three-back committee, Achane will be the player who holds my team back.
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