Having the eighth overall pick in a full PPR Fantasy Football draft in 2024 might be my least favorite spot to draft out of. The big three running backs with target upside are likely all off the board -- Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall. My first tier of wide receivers is also off the board -- CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. However, the first pick is clear for me -- a player who borders my Tier 1/2 at receiver -- Amon-Ra St. Brown.
I'm not as high on St. Brown as others because the Lions are one of the two teams that are likely to regress in touchdown rate, but he provides great floor play. The old adage in Fantasy Football goes something like this: "You can't win your league in Round 1, but you can certainly lose it." The idea is to prioritize safer floor plays with your premium draft capital and splash on league winners in the middle rounds.
After scooping St. Brown, my focus shifted to finding the best player available while also prioritizing pass catchers because we were playing in a full-point PPR setting. I came away ecstatic with my top four pass catchers, including arguably the best player at his position (Sam LaPorta). Ultimately, this roster may look weak at running back on paper, but I came away cautiously optimistic about the type of back I pinpointed to fit this format.
Here's my squad from the eighth pick:
1.8: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
2.5: Chris Olave, WR, NO
3.8: Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
4.5: Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
5:8: Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
6.5 Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
7.8 Tony Pollard, RB, TEN
8.5: D'Andre Swift, RB, CHI
9.8: Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
10.5: Jerome Ford, RB, CLE
11.8: Romeo Doubs, WR, GB
12.5: Mike Williams, WR, NYJ
13.8: D'Onta Foreman, RB, CLE
14.5: Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI
I stacked backs in the middle rounds and believe strongly in the investment the Bears made in Swift. He was one of the first backs signed in free agency to a lucrative multi-year deal. He joins the most talented quarterback prospect I've studied since Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck plus three wide receivers that should guarantee light boxes for Swift all season long. Pollard and Jones are explosive backs with receiving upside. Jones has proved it as a receiver his whole career and Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell has already hinted at using backs more in the pass game now that Jones is on the roster. Pollard joins Brian Callahan who coached with the Bengals -- a team that heavily uses its backs in the pass game.
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I typically wait on quarterback in one-QB formats, but Jackson presented a value in Round 4 I couldn't pass on. In Year 2 for Jackson with Todd Monken, I think we could see his best season yet as a passer. The return of Mark Andrews will do wonders for Jackson's efficiency in the red zone.
I'm incredibly bullish on the Bears offense with Caleb Williams and that means more scoring opportunities for Swift. It's possible he'll lose some red zone work, but he held his own last season in that regard despite Jalen Hurts stealing so many short scores. Swift is an explosive back who is bound to see light boxes all season long as teams scheme to stop Chicago's big three receivers. To get a lead back on a potential breakout offense in Round 8 feels like stealing. If this team ends up winning this league, Swift will be the "league winning" pick I look back on.
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I drafted Diggs because I think he's undervalued, but I won't deny the glaring red flags in his profile. For starters, after spending years building a rapport with Josh Allen, he has to start from scratch with Stroud. And the Texans quarterback has a full year building a rapport with Nico Collins and Tank Dell under his belt. Also, Diggs' advanced metrics had a steep decline in 2023. He wasn't the same player. Can he find a resurgence in Houston? It's possible, but the downside is a sub-100 target season without a lot of touchdowns or big plays.
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In order for this build to work, I need LaPorta to return TE1 or TE2 value. He has to repeat his rookie season, or more likely, take another step forward. The Lions had a breakout season on offense in 2023, but it was a very concentrated pass game with St. Brown and LaPorta. I'll need that target share to remain stable despite Jameson Williams coming up on the heels of both St. Brown and LaPorta.
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