- Heath's Dynasty Rankings: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Rookies
- More Rookie Rankings: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
- More Fantasy Football:Dave Richard's Rookie Dynasty Rankings | Early 2018 Season Preview | Schedule Analysis: Best to Worst
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The past two seasons have given us incredible production from rookie running backs. Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and Leonard Fournette all finished among the top-12 in non-PPR leagues. Christian McCaffrey caught 80 passes for 651 yards. There were many more who gave us short bursts of elite Fantasy production. We were spoiled.
Then we got what may be the deepest rookie running back class ever.
I'm not saying this class is going to be better right away than the past two. Saquon Barkley is the only Fantasy RB1 in this class, at least in year one. But there are 13 rookies in my top 60 Dynasty running backs, and I may have even left a few out. Here's where I rank those rookies, and you can check out my full Dynasty rankings on SportsLine.com.
5. Saquon Barkley
Barkley is in a tier of his own in this class. I could see a legitimate argument for ranking him as high as No. 2 among running backs and nearly did. He should be one of the few workhorse backs in the league, and should excel in the passing game, too. Last year at Penn State, Barkley caught 54 passes for 632 yards (11.7 yards per reception) on his way to 1,903 yards from scrimmage.
The landing spot isn't ideal, but it also isn't bad enough to where I'd downgrade him. He should be involved regardless of game script, and he's the type of talent who can succeed without a lot of help from his offensive line. Odell Beckham will keep defenses honest, even with Eli Manning at quarterback.
Barkley is the clear No. 1 pick in any rookie-only draft and a top-10 choice in a Dynasty start-up.
17. Derrius Guice
It doesn't take long to go from a clear No. 1 to a matter of personal preference. Guice performed against big-time competition in the SEC, rushing for 2,538 yards and 26 touchdowns while averaging 6.3 yards per carry in his final two seasons at LSU. He has good size and great speed. He should have success grinding between the tackles while still providing big-play ability.
The landing spot in Washington is a mixed bag. He should easily beat out Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley for early-down work, but the presence of Chris Thompson does put a cap on his ceiling, as there isn't much opportunity available in the passing game. I was a little surprised he fell all the way to pick 59, which raises his risk profile slightly. It's easier for a team to walk away from a late-second round pick than a mid-first.
I'm still taking Guice at 1.2 in a rookie draft, and he's an early third in a startup.
18. Rashaad Penny
I didn't really like what the Seahawks did this offseason. I thought they were better served to play fast and let Russell Wilson wing it. With a focus on the offensive line and the pick of Penny, its' pretty clear they want to get back to running the football. And boy can this kid run.
As a senior at San Diego State Penny ran for 2,248 yards and 23 touchdowns. He averaged 7.8 yards per carry and scored twice more on passing plays. He has acceptable size and elite top-end speed. It's easy to see why Pete Carroll speaks of him so glowingly.
The Seahawks have a lot of running backs on this roster and Penny has very little experience in pass protection, so I don't actually expect him to be a three-down back as a rookie. But that long-term potential is there. If the Seahawks can rebuild their defense and offensive line it's not hard to imagine Penny joining Barkley as a top-12 running back in the first two years of his career. If you want to bet on that, I could understand taking Penny over Guice.
21. Royce Freeman
If you want to get into a debate about college workload, Freeman is where you start. Some will look at his 947 carries at Oregon and start worrying he doesn't have as much tread left on the tires. Others will see it as proof that he can hold up to a heavy workload. I have mixed feelings, but I lean towards the latter. Especially with a physical specimen like Freeman.
Freeman is nearly 230 pounds, but still has above-average speed for a running back prospect. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry in college and more than 10 yards per reception. He totaled 6,435 total yards and scored 64 touchdowns. He is a punishing back who has had more success in the passing game than Guice.
If you're looking for a reason to be concerned, Broncos' reporter Mike Klis expects Devontae Booker to be the Broncos' lead back when camp opens. Personally, I've seen enough from Booker to brush this aside. But it could absolutely cause him to fall in drafts this summer, especially if the coaches start to echo the same sentiment.
23. Sony Michel
Nothing in the 2018 NFL Draft that surprised me more than the New England Patriots selecting Sony Michel in the first round. They already had Rex Burkhead, James White, Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee. But who am I to question Bill Belichick? The last time Belichick took a running back in the first, it was Laurence Maroney. Maroney received 175 carries in his rookie year and finished as a high-end No. 3 running back in Fantasy.
As for Michel himself, I have mixed feelings. His senior year he was remarkably efficient, averaging 7.9 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception while scoring 17 touchdowns. He has slightly above average speed, but at his size I wish he was a bit faster. He's also had ball security issues in the past, which has buried several Patriots running backs in the past. He's also one of the older backs in the class at 23 years old.
I'd still take Michel at No. 5 overall in a rookie draft, but I'd be more likely to trade down if someone really wanted him.
The best of the rest:
25. Ronald Jones - Great opportunity, questionable talent.
26. Nick Chubb - Injury history and a crowded backfield.
27. Kerryon Johnson - Love watching him run, but measurables and landing spot are dings.
Also cracking the top 60: Nyheim Hines, Mark Walton, Kalen Ballage, Justin Jackson, Boston Scott