There's too many teams, too many receivers getting too many targets ... and not many Fantasy points to go 'round.
Can't you see this is the land of confusion?!
Some of the league's most prolific and pass-heavy offenses have three or more receivers who have Fantasy appeal but are still hard to gauge. How will they be used? Will they keep getting fed targets, or is the diversification of throws from the quarterback a certainty that will cannibalize their Fantasy upside from game to game? And just how do their quarterbacks do throwing to certain receivers?
With the season less than a month away, I thought it was worth one last dive into the numbers to figure out just how the seven most crowded receiving corps would operate in 2021.
For this we leaned heavily on prior receiver usage (where they lined up, how often they were targeted) and how often quarterbacks threw to outside receivers and slot receivers. Note that every single stat is representative only of receivers and does not include targets, catches, yards or touchdowns to tight ends unless specifically noted.
You'll also note that exactly zero receivers with a top-24 ADP made the list. There's a reason for that -- those receivers figure to be in a secure place with their expected targets and are getting drafted accordingly. These receivers aren't, which is why we're looking into them.
Understanding how these receivers and quarterbacks work should help form some concrete opinions on when to draft these guys -- and who to prioritize based on undervalued ADP.
Note: ADP source is NFC from early August.
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Expected primary roles
Ja'Marr Chase: outside receiver
Tee Higgins: outside receiver (72% pass snaps out wide in 2020)
Tyler Boyd: slot (84% pass snaps in slot in 2020; at least 73% pass snaps in slot in four of five seasons)
2020 targets per game from Joe Burrow (10 games)
Boyd: 8.5
Higgins: 7.3 (excludes Week 1)
AJ Green: 7.5
2020 passing tendencies:
Burrow to slot WRs: 27.5% target share, 73% completion rate, 8.15 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 2 INT
Burrow to outside WRs: 39.4% target share, 59.7% completion rate, 6.84 yards per attempt, 6 TD, 1 INT
Burrow to slot WRs in red zone: 22.2% target share, 58.3% completion rate, 3 TD, 1 INT (Boyd 3)
Burrow to outside WRs in red zone: 27.8% target share, 46.7% completion rate, 6 TD, 0 INT (Higgins 4, Green 1, Mike Thomas 1)
With an ADP after 80.0, Fantasy managers are undervaluing Boyd. He's not flashy like Chase or Higgins but seems to have a big enough piece of this passing game to potentially lead them not just in targets per game but receptions. Playing as a short-area slot guy has its advantages, especially when Burrow needs to get rid of the ball quickly. The younger receivers will benefit from defenses being unable to double-team them both, so it's on Burrow to consistently connect with them when they're open. That means being on-target, which Burrow had some issues with on downfield throws last year.
Target predictions
Boyd: 7.5 per game
Chase: 7.3 per game
Higgins: 6.6 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Boyd: 83.22 (undervalued)
Chase: 54.63 (fair value)
Higgins: 54.68 (overvalued)
Cowboys
Expected primary roles
CeeDee Lamb: slot/outside receiver (93.2% of pass snaps in slot in 2020)
Amari Cooper: outside/slot receiver (27% of pass snaps in slot in 2020, a career-high)
Michael Gallup: outside receiver (93.7% of pass snaps out wide in 2020)
2020 targets per game from Dak Prescott (5 games)
Cooper: 10.4
Lamb: 7.4
Gallup: 5.0
2020 passing tendencies:
Prescott to slot WRs: 25.7% target share, 68.4% completion rate, 9.42 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 0 INT
Prescott to outside WRs: 33.3% target share, 77% completion rate, 10.65 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 2 INT
Prescott to slot WRs in red zone: 35% target share, 57.1% completion rate, 1 TD, 0 INT (Lamb)
*2019: 2 TD
Prescott to outside WRs in red zone: 20% target share, 50% completion rate, 0 TD, 1 INT
*2019: 7 TD (five to Cooper, two to Gallup)
Everything out of Cowboys camp points to Lamb taking on a larger role in the offense, which obviously would minimize the upside for Cooper and Gallup. But if Cooper is healthy, he'll have a shot at developing improved consistency as long as Lamb garners more defensive attention. A drop-off in targets is expected, but not to the point where he becomes a Fantasy liability. Gallup is the one whose targets figure to remain minimized, making him intriguing for Best Ball but an inconsistent boom or bust type in redraft as long as he's the third fiddle.
Target predictions
Lamb: 8.0 per game
Cooper: 7.3 per game
Gallup: 5.6 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Lamb: 29.44 (overvalued)
Cooper: 40.3 (fair value)
Gallup: 101.09 (overvalued)
Broncos
Expected primary roles
Jerry Jeudy: outside/slot receiver (66.6% pass snaps out wide in 2020)
Courtland Sutton: outside receiver (at least 80% pass snaps out wide in each of three seasons)
KJ Hamler: slot receiver (66.2% of pass snaps in slot in 2020)
2020 targets per game from Drew Lock
Jeudy: 7.2 (13 games)
Hamler: 4.4 (10 games)
Sutton: 8.0 in 2019 (five games)
2020 passing tendencies:
Lock to slot WRs: 21% target share, 52.7% completion rate, 6.54 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 6 INT
Lock to outside WRs: 32.5% target share, 56.9% completion rate, 9.07 yards per attempt, 6 TD, 4 INT
Lock to slot WRs in red zone: 16% target share, 50% completion rate, 2 TD, 1 INT (Tim Patrick 1, Hamler 1)
Lock to outside WRs in red zone: 24% target share, 58.3% completion rate, 2 TD, 1 INT (Patrick 1, DaeSean Hamilton 1)
Teddy Bridgewater to slot WRs: 26.8% target share, 78.0% completion rate, 8.16 yards per attempt, 3 TD, 2 INT
Bridgewater to outside WRs: 35.2% target share, 64.2% completion rate, 10.38 yards per attempt, 6 TD, 5 INT
Bridgewater to slot WRs in red zone: 24.5% target share, 84.6% completion rate, 3 TD, 0 INT (one each to Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore)
Bridgewater to outside WRs in red zone: 26.4% target share, 35.7% completion rate, 0 TD, 1 INT
The quarterback takeaways aren't great -- Lock struggled to complete throws no matter where he was on the field but the poor numbers overall to slot receivers is disheartening. Bridgewater was at least better connecting with his slot targets but wasn't particularly good otherwise. If these are the guys throwing to Jeudy and Sutton, two players Fantasy managers are drafting with high hopes, then whoever's playing must throw differently than he ever has before. At the very least, Bridgewater's had a higher on-target rate than Lock each of the last two years. If we're rooting for Jeudy and Sutton, we should probably root for Bridgewater to start.
There's also the issue of Jeudy and Sutton playing together for all of one game last year (and Noah Fant barely lining up like a mismatch tight end should). These factors combined with the uncertain quarterback play make things messy in Denver. Are these three pass-catchers talented? No question. But could they wind up with inefficient stats that keep their numbers low because they're sharing targets and dealing with weak quarterbacks? No question. Luckily, all of these uncertainties are baked into their current ADPs.
Target predictions
Jeudy: 7.0 per game
Sutton: 6.3 per game
Hamler: 4.6 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Jeudy: 72.76 (fair value)
Sutton: 78.41 (fair value)
Hamler: 200+ (fair value)
Jaguars
Expected primary roles
D.J. Chark: outside receiver (at least 75% pass snaps out wide in each of three seasons)
Laviska Shenault: slot/outside receiver (68.6% pass snaps out wide in 2020)
Marvin Jones: outside/slot receiver (under 68% pass snaps out wide in each of past two years)
2020 targets per game
Chark: 7.2 (from different QBs over 13 games)
Jones: 7.2 (from Matthew Stafford in Detroit over 16 games)
Shenault: 5.6 (from different QBs over 14 games)
2020 passing tendencies:
Trevor Lawrence to slot WRs at Clemson: 26.9% target share, 82.2% completion rate, 10.4 yards per attempt, 5 TD, 2 INT
Lawrence to outside WRs at Clemson: 37.1% target share, 62.1% completion rate, 9.58 yards per attempt, 12 TD, 2 INT
Lawrence to slot WRs in red zone at Clemson: 19.4% target share, 66.7% completion rate, 2 TD, 1 INT (Amari Rodgers 2)
Lawrence to outside WRs in red zone at Clemson: 41.9% target share, 53.8% completion rate, 5 TD, 0 INT
I was surprised to see Lawrence's slot receiver target share come in low, but the bigger shock was the less-than-excellent completion rates and touchdowns in the red zone last year. Maybe dealing with Covid or a depleted receiving corps played a bigger role than he led on. Regardless, it's pretty clear that outside receivers figure to have an edge with Lawrence, even if some of those targets manifest as quick screens and slants. Chark and Jones both have a track record of getting deep targets, so count on that happening. As for Shenault, Jones hinted during a training camp interview that Shenault's "ability to do some great things" would play well, "especially in the slot." Maybe that's where he winds up the most, which actually would be excellent.
Target predictions
Chark: 6.5 per game
Shenault: 6.7 per game
Jones: 6.2 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Chark: 78.8 (overvalued)
Shenault: 92.1 (undervalued)
Jones: 130.4 (undervalued)
Dolphins
Expected primary roles
Will Fuller: outside receiver (over 73% pass snaps out wide in four of five seasons)
DeVante Parker: outside receiver (over 76% pass snaps out wide each of six seasons)
Jaylen Waddle: slot/outside receiver (36.2% pass snaps in slot in 2020)
2020 targets per game
Waddle: 5.3 (in six games at Alabama)
Fuller: 6.8 (in 11 games with Houston)
Parker: 7.4 overall, 4.9 in nine games with Tagovailoa
2020 passing tendencies:
Tagovailoa to slot WRs: 13.1% target share, 65.8% completion rate, 5.42 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT
Tagovailoa to outside WRs: 32.4% target share, 56.4% completion rate, 6.35 yards per attempt, 4 TD, 1 INT
Tagovailoa to slot WRs in red zone: 11.7% target share, 25% completion rate, 1 TD, 0 INT (Jakeem Grant)
Tagovailoa to outside WRs in red zone: 32.4% target share, 54.5% completion rate, 4 TD, 0 INT (Parker 2, Preston Williams 1, Mack Hollins 1)
The Dolphins did everything they could to surround Tagovailoa with explosive playmakers. With a pretty good training camp underway, we could be on the verge of a breakout year. And don't get too caught up with his unimpressive target share to slot receivers -- in 2018 and 2019 he kept his pass volume to slot guys very, very close to the outside wideouts, especially in the red zone. Waddle's arrival should greatly swing the balance of slot targets for the Dolphins, and the news on his ankle may have created a Draft Day discount. In fact, all of Miami's receivers may have an attractive ADP due to fear of a rough year from Tagovailoa, but none are going in a place where they'll truly hurt a Fantasy roster.
Target predictions
Waddle: 6.5 per game
Fuller: 6.0 per game
Parker: 5.4 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Fuller: 102.9 (undervalued)
Waddle: 108.2 (undervalued)
Parker: 127.6 (undervalued)
Steelers
Expected primary roles
Diontae Johnson: outside receiver (over 86% pass snaps out wide in each of two seasons)
Chase Claypool: outside receiver (77.3% pass snaps out wide in 2020)
JuJu Smith-Schuster: slot receiver (85.3% pass snaps in slot in 2020; slot pass snaps have increased every year of career)
2020 targets per game
Johnson: 9.6
Smith-Schuster: 8.0
Claypool: 6.8
2020 passing tendencies:
Roethlisberger to slot WRs: 22.7% target share, 75.4% completion rate, 6.41 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 4 INT
Roethlisberger to outside WRs: 45.1% target share, 63.9% completion rate, 7.07 yards per attempt, 17 TD, 4 INT
Roethlisberger to slot WRs in red zone: 20.5% target share, 86.7% completion rate, 7 TD, 1 INT (Smith-Schuster 5, Claypool 2)
Roethlisberger to outside WRs in red zone: 41.1% target share, 56.7% completion rate, 9 TD, 0 INT (Johnson 4, Claypool 2, James Washington 3)
Pittsburgh led the NFL with a 41.0 pass attempt per game average. That's unlikely to carry over after the edict to run the ball more came from ownership. The Steelers followed that up by taking Najee Harris in the draft. Harris will catch the ball plenty, too (70 receptions in 2019-20), so expecting some sort of target dip for all the Pittsburgh wideouts makes sense.
There will also be more scheming and pre-snap motion in an attempt to create smarter mismatches. That will especially help Johnson, a shifty speedster, and Claypool, a hulk with wheels. Claypool is particularly exciting in that he's brought in multiple touchdown catches in and out of the slot. However, it's an expected dip in overall pass attempts in Pittsburgh that will hurt all three of these guys. Even a 10 percent dip in pass attempts would narrow their outlooks considerably, especially someone like Smith-Schuster who has been tied to high target volume his whole career.
Target predictions
Johnson: 7.9 per game
Smith-Schuster: 6.8 per game
Claypool: 6.4 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Johnson: 47.72 (fair value)
Claypool: 63.8 (fair value)
Smith-Schuster: 69.92 (fair value)
Buccaneers
Expected primary roles
Mike Evans: outside/slot receiver (37.9% pass snaps in slot in 2020 was career-high)
Chris Godwin: slot/outside receiver (over 63% pass snaps in slot in each of past two seasons)
Antonio Brown: outside/slot receiver (78.3% pass snaps out wide in 2020)
2020 targets per game
(in the 11 games all three receivers played in together, including the postseason)
Evans: 7.0 (7.5 if excluding injury-shortened Week 17)
Godwin: 7.1
Brown: 6.7 (5.9 if excluding Week 17 game Evans left early)
2020 passing tendencies:
(in the 11 games all three receivers played in together, including the postseason)
Brady to slot WRs: 21.4% target share, 70.9% completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, 10 TD, 3 INT
Brady to outside WRs: 38.6% target share, 62.6% completion rate, 8.85 yards per attempt, 11 TD, 4 INT
Brady to slot WRs in red zone: 15% target share, 66.7% completion rate, 5 TD, 0 INT (Evans 3, Godwin 1, Brown 1)
Brady to outside WRs in red zone: 33.3% target share, 60% completion rate, 6 TD, 0 INT (Godwin 3, Evans 2, Brown 1)
Brady's low target share to his slot receivers is a little stunning given his history, but that's probably a by-product of Brady never having a receiving corps as rich and as deep as the one he has now. The data provided doesn't include Rob Gronkowski, or Giovani Bernard, or O.J. Howard, or anyone else the Buccaneers have. It's that maxed-out wealth of targets that might make Brady's numbers great, but leave the Bucs pass-catchers with some inconsistent patches.
It is a little funny, if not counter-intuitive, that Godwin had three red-zone touchdowns lined up wide compared to just one while in the slot. And I've built the case for Evans to be a bust based on declining efficiency and heavy reliance on touchdowns, but if he's going to continue seeing red-zone targets in and out of the slot, I might want to reconsider the stance.
Target predictions
Godwin: 7.2 per game
Evans: 7.1 per game
Brown: 6.2 per game
ADP & Fantasy value
Evans: 38.2 (overvalued)
Godwin: 41.83 (fair value/i>)
Brown: 91.34 (undervalued)
So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.