When it comes to Fantasy Football drafts, we can always tell you what we would do, but don't you want to know what we actually do when our chips are on the table? It's easy to say "Wait until the fourth round to take CeeDee Lamb," but how do we actually act when the draft is live and we have to make the decision. What can our revealed preferences tell us about who we actually like for the 2021 season?
Well, I just finished up my 10th draft that I'll be playing out this season, with two more to come Tuesday evening, and that seems like a good time to take a look at my most-drafted players. If we included the (several dozen) mock drafts we've done to this point, the list might look a bit different, but these are the players whose success I'm most invested in for the upcoming season. Not necessarily my favorite players, but "my guys" for this season. I'll sink or swim with these 12, and especially the top four.
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My Guys for 2021
- Julio Jones -- Times picked: 6 -- Jones just seems like a screaming value to me, but I get why others are down on him. His 2020 season was derailed by injuries, so when you seem him limited throughout much of camp with a leg injury, it's not hard to see why folks are scared off. Add in that he's changing teams for the first time as a 32-year-old from a high-volume passing offense to a low-volume one, and it makes sense that he's going lower than ever before. But the thing is, he showed no signs of actually being in decline last season when he was on the field, sporting the best yards-per-target of his career at 11.3. I don't think he'll do that again, but between sharing the field with A.J. Brown and catching passes from the hyper-efficient Ryan Tannehill, I think Jones should sustain elite efficiency yet again, which should make up for the volume concerns at least a little bit. And, with Brown on the opposite side and the deadly Tannehill/Derrick Henry combo in the red zone to worry about, Jones is going to see less defensive attention near the end zone than ever before. At some point, you have to overlook injury concerns and just take an elite player, and that point is usually in the fourth or fifth round for me. I'm thrilled to have him.
- Rondale Moore -- Times picked: 5 -- Moore was someone you could usually get with one of your last two or three picks, and I was happy to do it as often as I could. He might open the season as the Cardinals No. 4 receiver, but this is a team that figures to use four-wide sets more than any other in the league, so he'll see the field early and often. And, based on how he was used in the preseason -- nine touches on 49 snaps in two games -- he figures to have a significant role in this offense. I've called him "the skeleton key that can unlock everything Kliff Kingsbury wants to do on offense" all offseason based on his skills with the ball in his hands, and I wouldn't be surprised if he emerged as a must-start Fantasy WR sometime this year.
- Curtis Samuel -- Times picked: 4 -- I'm actually shocked I only have Samuel on four teams, because he was in my queue in absolutely every draft. I initially had him ranked as a top-24 WR coming into training camp, but moved him down as he dealt with that lingering groin injury that has his status for Week 1 somewhat up in the air. If Samuel replicates the role he had in Ron Rivera's offense in 2019, when he saw a ton of high-value deep targets and added 19 carries, he could be a big-time playmaker with much-improved QB play. You may have to be patient with him, but I wouldn't be shocked if Samuel outscored Terry McLaurin this season, and that's not a knock on Terry.
- Ja'Marr Chase -- Times picked: 4 -- As Chase's value fell throughout camp, my interest level in drafting him rose proportionately. Expectations have significantly fallen for the No. 5 pick in this year's NFL Draft following a camp and preseason filled with drops, but I'm not sure they really should have. You aren't drafting a high-upside rookie because you think they'll be a Week 1 superstar; you're drafting them for the Justin Jefferson/Odell Beckham outcome, where they become must-start players after getting acclimated. Chase is an incredible talent, and even if he gets off to a slow start, he should reward your patience in the long run.
- Emmanuel Sanders -- Times picked: 3 -- Beginning in OTAs, you heard a steady drumbeat from Bills practices: "Sanders has been Josh Allen's favorite target." He's not going to usurp Stefon Diggs as the No. 1 option, obviously, but Sanders has remained remarkably efficient into his 30s and was on pace for 91 catches for 1,186 yards and five touchdowns in the seven games he played without Michael Thomas last season. You want a piece of this passing game, and Sanders was consistently priced cheap enough to make him a No. 5 or 6 WR for your team. He could very easily be a No. 3.
- Travis Kelce -- Times picked: 3 -- If I had a pick outside of the top three and Kelce was still there, I was taking Kelce. It was a very simple decision for me. I think he's the biggest advantage you can give your team once Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara are off the board.
- Robert Woods -- Times picked: 3 -- Woods is a top-10 WR for me, which might feel a bit aggressive at first. However, I think targeting WR with a role in the rushing game remains a market inefficiency for Fantasy, and Woods has added between 17.5 and 27.5 points over the past three seasons with his legs. Add in the expectation that this passing offense should take a big step forward with Matthew Stafford replacing Jared Goff, and there's a lot to get excited about, especially when you could typically grab Woods as your No. 2 WR. That could be a huge lineup edge.
- Kenyan Drake -- Times picked: 3 -- It's not that I'm terribly excited about Drake, but I think he's a pretty interesting bench RB to snag. Obviously, he'll have significant upside if anything were to happen to Josh Jacobs, but I think he'll have stand-alone value as the No. 2 in this offense thanks to what I expect to be a pretty healthy passing game role. In 2019, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard combined for 84 targets and 147 carries, and that may not be an unreasonable upside expectation for Drake. However, even something like 120 carries and 60 targets could make Drake a viable low-end starting option, and a great player to have on your bench in case of emergencies. He's exactly the kind of bench back you should be targeting, and he's not a bad Zero-RB starter if it comes to it.
- Mike Williams -- Times picked: 3 -- We've seen Williams be a red-zone monster, and we've seen him top 1,000 yards as a big-play threat. We've never seen him put it all together at the same time, but it's been worth betting on him around pick 100 if you get the chance.
- Will Fuller -- Times picked: 3 -- I'm legitimately stunned I don't have Fuller in more leagues yet, but I guess I tried to wait just a bit too long to take him a few too many times. If I was just drafting without care for value, I would have been taking him as a top-30 wide receiver, and maybe I should have just done that, because I think he could be a legitimate top-15 guy once his one-game suspension is over. He played that way last season, and if he's healthy and this Dolphins offense takes the step forward I expect, I'm going to regret not having more of him.
- Raheem Mostert -- Times picked: 3 -- Mostert is one of my favorite RB2 options if I waited for that position, because you could typically take him in the sixth or seventh round. I don't think there's much difference between him and the likes of Gus Edwards and Damien Harris as a runner, and he's got more upside than either as a receiver, too. Durability is a concern, but not when he's going so late.
- Jalen Reagor -- Times picked: 3 -- This is just one of those late-round fliers I was taking a lot early. Somewhat underwhelming reports out of training camp pushed him further down my draft board, and I might end up dropping him with an underwhelming Week 1. Or I could see him being one of the top waiver-wire targets with a big performance. It's a dart throw on a talented, young player.