Bijan Robinson isn't running slower than normal or even getting outplayed by Tyler Allgeier. These shouldn't be worries in a Fantasy manager's mind.
What is a worry is that even though he looks like the best running back on the Falcons, he's not getting touches like someone who is the best running back on the Falcons should. And worse yet, the style of run game the Falcons have chosen to roll with hasn't quite fit what Robinson is best at doing.
Factors beyond Bijan's control have his Fantasy stock trending down.
A matchup against the toothless Panthers run defense might bring a one-week reprieve, but there are still underlying concerns that could point to Robinson not having the smash season we had hoped.
Pro Football Focus has counted 83 zone-scheme runs for the Falcons compared to 18 gap-scheme runs. Most teams try to keep a balance between the two so as to not tip off opposing defenses, but the Falcons haven't tried to hide their intentions.
Zone-scheme runs involve the linemen blocking space and the running back choosing a lane based on the blocking in front of him in which to run through. Gap-scheme runs involve the linemen blocking people and the running back following his blockers.
On the season, Robinson has averaged 4.5 yards per carry on zone runs, which is wonderful until you see that Allgeier has averaged 5.6 yards per rush, albeit on about half as many runs as Robinson.
This isn't a startling trend for Robinson. Last year, he was nearly a yard better on a per-carry basis on gap-scheme runs (5.2) than zone-scheme runs (4.3). The splits were even farther apart in his last year in college. Robinson has been good at zone-scheme runs but better in gap-scheme.
Allgeier, on the other hand, has improved his zone-scheme running this year, up from 3.7 yards per rush in 2023.
Why would the Falcons implement so many zone-scheme runs when they have a running back who has proven to be excellent in gap-scheme? The initial belief was that it's the philosophy of the playcaller, Zac Robinson, who wants to have the offense look the same but produce different plays while also using zone and stretch runs not only to attack defenses but also create play-action pass plays off of it. It's a page out of Sean McVay's playbook, and Zac Robinson worked under McVay.
But it also might simply be that zone-scheme runs are what the Falcons offensive line does best.
Or it could be both of these things while also tailoring the run game to match up with an opponent's weakness. It just so happened that entering last week, the Bucs were excellent against gap-scheme (3.0 yards per carry allowed to backs with a 70% defensive success rate) and terrible against zone-scheme (4.7 yards per carry allowed to backs with a 58% success rate). So naturally, the Falcons couldn't wait to line up more zone-scheme runs -- the kind that Bijan Robinson isn't as great at.
Not that it mattered because the Falcons wound up passing 58 times.
If we look at the Panthers' splits against zone-scheme and gap-scheme, we're probably going to see more of the same intent in terms of how the Falcons will run the ball. It's not great for Bijan.
The Panthers have given up 4.5 yards per carry against zone-scheme runs this year, including 10 percent of opposing runs going 10-plus yards. That's a lot. Those numbers blossom to 4.8 yards per carry and a 13.6% rate of 10-plus-yard runs against outside-zone runs, a subset of zone runs that the Falcons have heavily favored.
Against gap-scheme runs, the kind that Robinson has excelled at, the Panthers have held backs to 3.5 yards per rush, including 2.6 over 17 carries at Chicago last week. The rate of 10-plus-yard runs allowed against that scheme is 3.8%.
So the Falcons figure to keep rolling with zone-scheme runs. The numbers suggest that would favor Allgeier, but let's be real, it's not like Robinson is downright awful at zone runs. But it does mean he will continue to share touches, and that's the bigger issue.
Robinson had 20 more touches than Allgeier in Week 1. By Week 4, Robinson had one more touch than Allgeier. Robinson has also played under 70% of the snaps in the past two weeks, giving more playing time to Allgeier in the process. It's difficult to buy into this changing anytime soon.
At least for this week, we can buy into the matchup. The Falcons may not be compelled to throw the ball 50-plus times against the Panthers. They might run a scheme that favors Allgeier, but Robinson should still have more opportunities. Plus, it's not like Robinson stinks running zone-scheme.
Running backs have totaled at least 30 carries in 4 of 5 games against the Panthers -- only the Raiders fell miserably short of that mark. Even if Robinson gets 20 carries to Allgeier's 10, he should be able to do a lot of good with it. Plus, the Panthers have allowed five rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown to running backs in their past two games.
This week should be a big game for Robinson and maybe for Allgeier, too.
At least, it better be.
Of the Falcons' next five opponents, two rank outside the top-12 in yards per carry allowed to running backs in zone-scheme, and those are defenses the Falcons have already faced in the Saints and Bucs, neither of which allowed a big game to Robinson ... not that the Falcons gave him much of a chance. Frankly, more of those five teams are worse against gap-scheme runs, but the Falcons have provided no indication they'll go with those.
We can wish all we want for Tyler Allgeier to get relegated to a tiny role and for the Falcons to give all their touches to Robinson. But the team clearly has plans to keep Allgeier involved, which is their right since they probably feel like both backs are good. And now that Kirk Cousins has begun playing better, they could even shift toward being pass-happy.
A big Week 6 for Robinson might make Fantasy managers relax a little, but it also could be exactly what those managers need to sell high on him in a trade before the split with Allgeier, the team's focus on zone runs and a tougher schedule send his Fantasy stats south again.