The first thing you need to know about what's changing in the Week 13 rankings and projections is that they are much more robust. The six teams that were on bye in Week 12 are returning, and the NFL scheduled zero byes in Week 13. Thank goodness, we won't have to search nearly as hard for Week 13 starters.
The second thing you need to know is that there are six more teams going on bye in Week 14. Your Week 13 waiver wire priorities may be more dependent on your Week 14 needs than they are on your Week 13. In Week 14, we won't have the Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, or Texans. Don't be shy about preparing for Week 14 if your Week 13 lineup looks good. Now, let's find out how your Week 13 lineup looks.
D'Andre Swift is a sit
Truth be told, I wanted to call Swift a sit in Week 12, but with six teams on a bye, it was difficult. I should have, anyway. Swift had a 59% rush share and an 8.3% target share in Week 12, totaling 9.5 PPR Fantasy points on 16 touches. Roschon Johnson stole yet another touchdown, and Caleb Williams continued to run more with Thomas Brown calling plays. For what it's worth, the Bears' overall run rate has gone now about three points under Brown as well. This week, with no teams on a bye and the Bears facing a Lions run defense that has been very stingy, I don't anticipate projecting or ranking Swift as a top-24 running back.
Michael Pittman is relevant again
In the two games since Anthony Richardson returned as quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, Michael Pittman has a 28.3% target share. In Week 12, that translated to a team-best six catches for 96 yards and 15.6 PPR Fantasy points for Pittman. Pittman now has a 25.7% target share from Richardson on the season, which includes a couple of games earlier in the year when Josh Downs was hurt. That's relevant because Downs left Week 12 with an injury. The Colts play a bad Patriots defense in Week 13. If Downs is out, I would project Pittman for near a 30% target share, which would make him a top 30 wide receiver, maybe even better. If Downs plays, expect both he and Pittman to rank in the 30s at wide receiver.
Jaylen Waddle too
Where did that come from? Waddle caught eight of nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. He was started in 50% of leagues. I am amazed it was that high. This was his first game with double-digit Fantasy points since Week 1. The thing is, we never doubted Waddle's talent. It's just that the Dolphins played without Tua Tagovailoa for a few games, and then Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane seemed to take too many of Waddle's targets. One game isn't enough to move Waddle back into must-start territory where he was drafted, but when a player as talented as him shows signs of life, we take notice. I'll boost his target share from 14% to 17% and give him a small efficiency boost as well. With no teams on a bye, he'll likely rank as a boom/bust WR3, which is better than last week.
Bucky Irving is a must-start running back
We already knew Irving was the Buccaneers' best rusher. He showed that again in Week 12, turning 12 rush attempts into 87 yards and a touchdown on the ground. But the big change coming out of the bye was that Irving was also the Buccaneers' best pass catcher out of the backfield. He caught all six of his targets for 64 yards, while Rachaad White and Sean Tucker combined for just two targets. This is still a committee, but if Irving is suddenly going to handle 75% of the running back targets, he may just be a league winner with Tampa Bay's outstanding schedule. For now, I'll boost his target share to 12%, which should push him close to the top 15 at the position, even with no one on bye.
Cade Otton takes a step back
You don't want to make too much of Tampa Bay's target totals. They only threw 30 passes in the game, and it wasn't particularly competitive. Still, in the first game with Mike Evans back, it doesn't feel great that Otton caught one pass for 30 yards. He had a 10% target share in this game, and I had him projected at 22%. That will drop to 19% for Week 13, which won't drop him out of the top 12, but it will drop him out of the elite tier. If you have someone like Jonnu Smith or T.J. Hockenson, you're going to have a very difficult decision to make.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like the best wide receiver in Seattle
Smith-Njigba exploded without DK Metcalf out, but we weren't sure what to expect when Metcalf came back. It's been two games now, and the second-year receiver has been pretty awesome. In those two games, Smith-Njigba has a 30.5% target share compared to 23.5% for Metcalf. He's averaging more than 20 Fantasy points per game in those two games and how has three straight with at least 19 Fantasy points. This was an elite prospect who looks like he's turning into a No. 1 receiver for his team and quite possibly your Fantasy team. I'll be bumping JSN's target share again this week and expect he'll be ranked higher than Metcalf in Week 13.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is a boom/bust WR3
I was very nervous about Harrison coming into the week and wish I would have trusted the projections, which said he was a boom/bust WR3 in Week 12. The problem is that his upside is so enticing. So, I caved to FOMO and ranked him as a low-end WR2. I can't fake it anymore, especially with zero teams on a bye. Harrison still has elite weekly upside, but it's time to face facts: His two highest target games of the season were Week 2 and Week 3. He has one game with more than 60 yards since September 22nd. Harrison is a boom/bust WR3. That doesn't mean he won't hit next week. It just means you can't ever count on any kind of reliable floor.
