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It feels like we've been waiting forever for this, but the NFL is back. Real football, none of that preseason stuff.
We get to see the defending world champions begin their title defense ... kind of. We get to see the best running backs in the world ... most of them. We're finally done watching backup quarterbacks, unless you're an Eagles, Bills or a Bucs fan.
OK, so it's not perfect, but it is our first week of real football. That means I have 10 things you need to know:
It sure looks like James Conner is the starting running back for the Steelers.
Man, does it look like we whiffed on this one. I didn't think it was realistic to think Bell would sit out actual games that cost him money. He certainly didn't talk like someone who was planning on missing the regular season. And there's still a chance he shows up Saturday in time to collect his Week 1 check. But at this point we need to treat James Conner as the starter, at least for Week 1.
For me that makes it pretty simple -- you're starting James Conner if you have him on your team. He's a top-10 running back who I project for 23 touches, 94 yards and a score. That's nowhere near his ceiling in terms of yardage. If this turns into a longterm holdout for Bell, Conner may be a league-winner. Somehow he's still available in 19 percent of leagues.
The Eagles still aren't at full strength.
Yes, the defending champs will kick off the season on Thursday night against the Falcons. No, they won't be at full strength. Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery are still recovering from injuries, but that's not my only concern. This first team played together very little in the preseason, and now it is facing a hungry, improved Falcons team that thinks it should have beat them in the playoffs last year. Zach Ertz is the only Eagle I'm really excited to start, though Jay Ajayi and Nelson Agholor are fine flexes.
Andrew Luck is back.
Now we get to find out if he's actually back. Luck took some hits and largely looked fine in the preseason, but we still haven't seen him unleash the deep ball. Hopefully that changes in Week 1 against a Bengals defense starting a rookie free safety and will be without Vontaze Burfict.
While I'm not certain Luck has the same deep ball he once did, I'm perfectly comfortable starting him in Week 1. The Colts defense is awful and the run game doesn't look like it will be much better. Luck should be among the league leaders in pass attempts, which should make up for any loss in efficiency.
The one player who could be hurt if Luck has lost his fastball is T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is by no means one-dimensional, but in his career year he had 14 catches that went for 30 yards or more. If that number falls in 2018, he'll have a hard time getting back to that level.
You're benching Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo and maybe even Russell Wilson.
Excited about your new shiny toy at quarterback? Chances are you may have to wait a week.
Mahomes travels to Los Angeles to face the Chargers, and Garoppolo is on the road at Minnesota. These are two of the toughest matchups in the league, and I'd much rather start Andy Dalton or Tyrod Taylor in Week 1. If you're looking for more streamers for this week, click here.
While there isn't much controversy to benching Mahomes or Garoppolo, I'd imagine most of you hate the idea of sitting Russell Wilson. I get it. He was the No. 1 quarterback in Fantasy last year, but you don't get any points for last year. Wilson is on the road in a tough environment in Denver against one of the best defenses in the league. His best receiver is battling knee soreness, his No. 2 option is either Tyler Lockett or Brandon Marshall. You've never heard of his tight end and I'm not sure he has a running game to speak of. Worst of all, his offensive coordinator is known for slowing things down and running the ball. I'm getting away from Wilson where I can.
The rookie running backs have a lot to prove.
It wasn't a great preseason for this rookie class. Saquon Barkley, Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny all suffered injuries. Ronald Jones and Nyheim Hines didn't get hurt, but their egos might have. Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson don't look likely to see 10 touches in Week 1. Only Royce Freeman and Jordan Wilkins came out of the preseason looking better than they did going in.
For Barkley, Week 1 is about proving he's a matchup-proof No. 1 running back. For Wilkins and Freeman, it's about solidifying their grip on the No. 1 role on their own team. Everyone else is in a battle for playing time, and trying to prove they deserve it. Hopefully a couple of these guys will remind us not to pay too much attention to the preseason.
The Browns aren't terrible. They might even be good.
This has been one of the storylines of the offseason, so I doubt you missed it, but I want to make sure you really get it. Sure, Taylor is big upgrade over their past quarterbacks. Carlos Hyde is better than Isaiah Crowell, and Jarvis Landry is certainly an upgrade over Corey Coleman. But the biggest upgrade doesn't wear pads. Todd Haley gives some legitimacy to this offense that hasn't existed for a while. The Browns have good players and a great offensive coach to direct them. Well, that's the way it looks on paper. I can't wait to find out for real.
Jordan Reed and other injury-prone players are healthy, play them.
I was one of the lowest on Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert coming into training camp. I didn't even have Sam Bradford in my top-25 quarterbacks. I'm not sure these three players combine for 16 complete games this year, and that's a big reason why. But they're all healthy heading into Week 1, and the injury risk over 60 minutes is much lower than it is over 16 games.
Reed is a top-five tight end for me this week and one of my favorite options in DFS. I expect he will be Alex Smith's favorite target for as long as he stays healthy. Eifert is still a touchdown-dependent No. 1 tight end, but against the Colts I really like his chances of getting in the end zone. Bradford is a quality streaming option I would start over Mahomes and Garoppolo.
If a player is healthy going into Week 1, forget about their injury history in terms of weekly projections.
Pay attention to the new-look offenses in Tennessee and Chicago.
We've talked a lot about Matt Nagy, Mark Helfrich and Matt LaFleur. We've hyped up Corey Davis and Trey Burton. We've argued Derrick Henry vs. Dion Lewis. Now we get to see these two new offenses operate. I'm especially curious about:
- Snap split between Henry and Lewis
- Target split between Davis and Rishard Matthews
- Jordan Howard's usage
- Who gets most of the slot targets in Chicago
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Nathan Peterman are starting quarterbacks in Week 1.
Yeah, you're going to want to start the Saints and Ravens defenses. At least we can feel confident Fitzpatrick will sling it around enough to give his receivers opportunities. I am concerned Peterman could sink this entire Bills offense, but I'm still starting LeSean McCoy in most situations.
So who should you sit and start this week? And where does every player stack up? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 1 Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking TE is going to finish in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.