Welcome to Stealing Signals, your look at Week 1 snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency and everything in between. Stealing Signals is a game-by-game breakdown of everything you saw in your Fantasy box score, identifying what is signal and what is noise to help you make decisions for future weeks. 

Green Bay Packers 10, Chicago Bears 3

Snap notes: Aaron Jones - 59%, Jamaal Williams - 41%, Geronimo Allison - 50%, Tarik Cohen - 70%, Mike Davis - 56%, David Montgomery - 38%, Cordarrelle Patterson - 27%, Anthony Miller - 22% 

Key stat: Allen Robinson - 149 air yards (more than his 2018 regular season high)

David Montgomery's role is a big story, but if it creates a panic, he's likely a buy. Just having a role in Week 1 is a good sign for a rookie running back, and workloads often expand throughout the year. Nick Chubb last year and Alvin Kamara the year before both benefited from trades, but take a guy like Joe Mixon, who played under 40% of the snaps in his first two games in 2017 before exceeding that mark for nine straight before a Week 12 injury. Jordan Howard had a big rookie season for these Bears in 2016; he hardly played in the first two weeks before taking over for Jeremy Langford. 

Another important note on Bears running back usage was how frequently Tarik Cohen lined up in the slot (40 slot snaps, per PFF). Because of that, Davis and Montgomery had a combined snap share of 94%. That was a positive sign for Montgomery, in that he may only be competing with Davis for a large workload, as Cohen was essentially playing a different position. Davis's seven targets to Montgomery's one was also notable, but Montgomery did run 15 routes compared to 26 for Davis, per PFF. The route disparity looks more like the overall snap disparity than the 7:1 target ratio, and argues Montgomery's receiving would tick up if his playing time does.

Similarly, the 60/40 split between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams isn't great, but shouldn't be a major concern given it's Week 1 and Jones didn't play in the preseason. Jones ran one more route than Williams (15 to 14). Since the Packers ran just one play inside the 10-yard line, Jones had just one high-value touch (a reception) on 14 total touches. That's not great on its face, but there's a possibility his role will expand, and the offense should be able to create more against defenses that aren't the Bears. His value should've only taken a slight hit here, but we need to keep an eye on his high-value touches.  

Allen Robinson's 13 targets and 149 air yards are an obviously positive sign, and with Trey Burton hurt and Anthony Miller nonexistent, there should be plenty of optimism about his No. 1 role. He was better last year than most realize. Even with Mitchell Trubisky's erratic play, Robinson crested 100 yards. 

Slowing Davante Adams was a clear focus of the Bears' defense, and at one point Adams pointed and counted the three defenders surrounding him after an uncatchable target thrown his direction. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jimmy Graham were clearly ahead of Geronimo Allison as Aaron Rodgers' go-to options with Adams at times triple-covered. 

We don't want to overreact to one week, but we also don't want to underreact. Allison was invisible in a game where Rodgers needed secondary options, while Miller looks boxed out by Cohen's increased slot usage (Cohen ran 40 routes to Miller's 11) and played fewer snaps and ran fewer routes than both Javon Wims and Cordarrelle Patterson. Given both Allison and Miller were later-round picks in most leagues, they are already cut candidates in shallower leagues given we'll need the roster space to hit the always-packed Week 1 waiver wire. Both still have upside, but upside is always a probability play, and both have a lower probability of hitting that upside today than they did before last night's game.

Signal: Allen Robinson's usage, Geronimo Allison and Anthony Miller's lack of usage
Noise: Davante Adams' production, David Montgomery's role

Here are some important statistical acronyms to know:

HVT - High-Value Touches: for running backs, all receptions and all touches inside the 10 yard line. 
TRAP - Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage: for running backs, the percentage of all touches that are not high-value touches.
WOPR - Weighted Opportunity Rating: a metric created by Josh Hermsmeyer, it balances team share of targets and team share of air yards. Because a player's WOPR is a share of his team's overall opportunity, it's important to consider team volume as additional context. 
RACR - Receiver Air Conversion Ratio: also created by Hermsmeyer, RACR is calculated as total receiving yards divided by total air yards. Similar to yards per reception or yards per target, but per air yard instead.

News and notes from around the league

  • There isn't much new information on the Antonio Brown saga, but he still appears extremely unlikely to suit up for Week 1. You have to hold him in all Fantasy leagues now, as his trade value has certainly cratered. The best-case scenario at this point seems to be a quick release that lands him with a good offense in time for him to suit by Week 2 or 3. A reconciliation with the Raiders seems improbable at this point, but is perhaps still possible if something significant changes, seemingly on his end.
  • D.K. Metcalf practiced in full Thursday and appears ready to go for Week 1. A rookie who misses training camp and likely isn't ready for a full snap share is not a preferred Week 1 option, but Metcalf does have a clear path to targets in an offense devoid of pass-catching options outside of Tyler Lockett.
  • Marqise Lee is practicing in full ahead of Week 1. It's unclear whether he'll play a full slate of snaps, but he'll likely be a starter. Lee is worth holding in deeper leagues and adding if you're in need of potentially available receiver options. He averaged over 100 targets across his last two healthy seasons in 2016 and 2017, and the Jaguars signed him to a fairly significant contract last offseason after letting Allen Robinson leave for Chicago. The former second-round pick has struggled to stay healthy but should be a sneaky beneficiary if Nick Foles and John DeFilippo make the Jacksonville passing game more valuable for Fantasy than it has been in recent seasons.
  • Julio Jones gave a bizarre press conference that has created some concern he might not be active Week 1. Keep in mind owner Arthur Blank said on Tuesday the Falcons were "very, very close" to a new deal with Jones, and Blank said he'd be "surprised and disappointed if we didn't get it done this week." We'll know more soon, but ideally a deal gets done Friday and Jones is in the Week 1 lineup.