Fantasy players are usually a pretty bright, opportunistic bunch, so it's always surprising when the collective wisdom fails. It is failing right now.
Coming into play in Week 12, we had a quarterback owned in just 39 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, despite the fact he has rated out as a top 10 quarterback as a starter. This doesn't make any sense, especially after the bye-heavy weeks we've had recently. And, it's not like our Fantasy experts have been ignoring him, either. In a week when they have been seemingly unable to agree on anything, all three had this quarterback 14th this week.
And yet, Fantasy players just won't buy into Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick does much of his damage on the ground, and he had his best game yet in Week 12, nearly willing the 49ers to a comeback with his 113 yards on the ground. He used the Dolphins' aggressive pass rush against them, maneuvering in the pocket and picking up big chunks of yardage on the ground, but he wasn't just a one-trick pony Sunday.
Kaepernick threw three touchdowns Sunday, his third game with multiple passing touchdowns in the last three, and ended up completing 29 of 46 passes for 296 yards. After six starts, he has 10 touchdowns to only three interceptions, and is now averaging 24.8 Fantasy points per game as a starter, with at least 23 in each of his last four.
Maybe it's the controversy surrounding him off the field -- on the sidelines, really -- or the fact that he was such a disaster last season; maybe the unconventional style of play scares some people off. Whatever it is, Kaepernick proved yet again in Week 12 that he needs to be owned. With Marcus Mariota on bye in Week 13 -- followed by a trip to Denver and Kansas City -- any player who owns him and doesn't pick up Kaepernick is just hurting themselves at this point.
The backup running back market has been pretty hit-or-miss this season. Spencer Ware has worked out; Christine Michael did, until he didn't; Devontae Booker is a work in progress; Derrick Henry has never really gotten a chance. Dixon hasn't really provided much value this season, despite coming into the season with some hype behind Terrance West and Justin Forsett. He has slowly been working his way into a larger role for the Ravens of late, but has been largely incapable of pushing West aside. That may be changing, however, and Week 12 might have provided our first glimpse of that:
uh oh, it's happening https://t.co/12huSSmacW
— Chris Towers (@CTowersCBS) November 27, 2016
Dixon split work with West evenly in the running game, but was more involved in the passing game, hauling in four passes for 31 yards, and finally out-snapped West. This could be a one-week blip, but this game was close, and Dixon still played more than him, which is a good sign. If Dixon is out there, it makes sense to go get him for the stretch run.
I'm always skeptical of players in high-scoring offenses who make a big impact in a limited role with a few big plays. When you're looking around the waiver wires for help, what has happened int he past is a whole lot less important than what is likely to happen in the future, and I find numbers like snaps and touches to be more predictive on the whole than just yards or (especially) touchdowns. So, it's going to be tough for me to get excited about anyone who only has 16 touches over the last four games, no matter what they've done. Still, it would be asinine to ignore Taylor Gabriel at this point, no matter how unsustainable his current level of production might seem. He has scored six touchdowns on those 16 snaps, but has also reached 68 yards from scrimmage in each game, so it's not all touchdown dependent. He'll need more than four touches per game to remain Fantasy relevant, so the question moving forward is, will this lead to an increased role? It is by no means a certainty, but with the game-breaking ability Gabriel has shown of late, the Falcons certainly have an incentive to get him more involved.
Nobody wants to pin their hopes to Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point, and understandably so. He's been banged up lately, but was an absolute disaster even before his knee injury. So, of course he put together arguably his strongest game of the season Sunday, with the season lost and the Patriots on the way. If there's one thing we know, it's that you can't trust Ryan Fitzpatrick, even to be bad. This was, however, a nice reminder that Fitzpatrick can still sling the ball around. He sustained two Fantasy relevant receivers last season, and did so on Sunday, with Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa both putting together solid performances. Marshall is undoubteldy owned everywhere, but Enunwa is available in more leagues than not at this point, coming off one of his best games of the season. He hauled in five passes thrown his way for 109 yards and a touchdown, and might just be on track to close the season out strong, with matchups against the Colts and 49ers coming up in the next two weeks.
