We're three weeks into the 2019 season and our assumptions about tight end have been turned on their heads.
Only one of the "big three" currently ranks in the top eight at the position. Two of the "next three" have been even more disappointing. Hunter Henry is hurt again and O.J. Howard has taken a step back, not forward. That doesn't mean the position is even worse than planned. Mark Andrews and Darren Waller have made huge leaps while Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker have re-emerged. Through three weeks, 10 tight ends are averaging at least 11 PPR Fantasy points per game, which is very close to historical expectations. It's just not the 10 we expected.
If you drafted one of the big three, I wouldn't do anything different. I still expect Kelce, Ertz and Kittle to be one of the top three at the position. I wouldn't be dropping Howard now either, because better days should be ahead. The managers with Engram, Olsen, Walker, Waller and Andrews should feel content. And Austin Hooper is fine.
Presuming those tight ends are distributed equally leaves two people in each league who should be looking for a streamer each week. As we'll discuss plenty below, the first thing each of them will look at is who gets to play Arizona each week.
Week 4 TE Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 4 at this time. Here's what it means:
McDonald's arm was in a sling on Tuesday, which isn't a great sign. Xavier Grimble would fill in, but he's not someone I'd trust, especially with a backup quarterback.
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Numbers to Know
- 12.1 - Averaged targeted air yards for T.J. Hockenson. That's tops among tight ends with at least 10 targets.
- 30 - Targets for Evan Engram and Zach Ertz, the most at the position.
- 151 - Yards after catch for Darren Waller. No tight end has more.
- 7 - Red-zone targets for George Kittle. That type of usage should lead to more touchdowns after the bye.
- 78.2% - Austin Hooper's career catch rate. It's even higher this year at 86.4%. That's gold in PPR.
Matchups that matter
The Arizona Cardinals have given up 21 Fantasy points per game to tight ends in non-PPR and have also given up the most receptions to the position. If you take the Chargers out of the equation, they've given up more Fantasy points to tight ends than any two defenses combined. The first three weeks of the season, the No. 1 tight end in non-PPR has been the one who has faced the Cardinals.
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Waiver Wire Targets
There won't be a more clear consensus this season than streaming Dissly in Week 4. You know about the matchup, but his history is getting pretty interesting as well. He's now played six full games in his career. He's caught 19 passes for 275 yards and five touchdowns in those six games. Last week he saw seven targets from Russell Wilson, and I'm hoping this will be another high-volume game against Arizona.
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For many years we've been able to count on the Giants being a great matchup for tight ends. They're being overshadowed by the Cardinals to start the year, but they've still ranked in the bottom third of the league against the position so far. Davis has been a borderline No.1 tight end this year despite playing one of his three games against the Bears. He should be much better in Week 4.
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Every week that passes, Henry gets closer to returning and his ownership gets lower. I get it, and now that the byes are starting, it should only go lower. I'm still very interested in stashing him if I'm streaming weekly because if Henry comes back as what we expected, I still expect him to be a top-six option.
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DFS Plays
The Giants and Washington have been the two worst pass defenses in the NFL this season, so this game really has a chance to get up and down. Engram and Sterling Shepard should see even more targets without Saquon Barkley, and Daniel Jones looked like an upgrade over Eli Manning. No tight end has a higher ceiling or floor in Week 4.
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Everyone is going to play Will Dissly in this price range, but I actually prefer Hockenson in what should be a high-scoring game against the Chiefs. The rookie tight end has disappointed the past two weeks, but he's still getting red-zone opportunities, and this should be a game where Matthew Stafford has to attempt 40-plus passes. Expect a big bounceback from Hockenson.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | TE | NON-PPR | PPR |
1 | 1 | Evan Engram | 12.01 | 18.64 |
2 | 2 | 11.64 | 17.41 | |
4 | 3 | Darren Waller | 10.01 | 16.29 |
3 | 4 | Mark Andrews | 10.47 | 15.79 |
5 | 5 | Zach Ertz | 9.01 | 14.40 |
7 | 6 | Austin Hooper | 7.89 | 13.03 |
6 | 7 | Delanie Walker | 8.10 | 12.62 |
8 | 8 | Greg Olsen | 7.61 | 11.76 |
9 | 9 | TJ Hockenson | 6.67 | 10.17 |
10 | 10 | 6.51 | 9.74 | |
13 | 11 | 4.97 | 8.02 | |
11 | 12 | O.J. Howard | 5.49 | 8.00 |
12 | 13 | 5.15 | 7.94 | |
14 | 14 | 4.48 | 7.79 | |
15 | 15 | 4.43 | 7.45 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 4 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
