Sammy Watkins has been ruled out for Week 7. It's a terrible thing for his Fantasy owners and I'm sure the Chiefs will miss him, but there are three young receivers with one more opportunity to shine. It just so happens to come in primetime.
Tyreek Hill will draw Chris Harris for most of the night, and there is a little history of secondary receivers having success against this defense. Adam Humphries, Mike Williams, Dede Westbrook, Marquez Valdes-Scantling have all led their team in receiving and scored at least 10 PPR Fantasy points against the Broncos.
Of course, the problem with the Chiefs is figuring out which secondary guy it will be.
Demarcus Robinson shined in Week 2 and hauled in a touchdown in Week 3 but has 66 yards in his past two games combined and was shut out in Week 6.
Mecole Hardman had his best game in Week 3 with 97 yards and a touchdown but then followed that up with two catches for nine yards against the Lions. He's been better than Robinson the past two weeks, but not as good as Byron Pringle.
Pringle made his first real impact in Week 5 with both Watkins and Hill out, catching six passes for 103 yards and a score. He's caught 10 of his 14 targets this season and he's averaging better than 10 yards per target.
Any of these receiver could catch a 50-yard bomb from Mahomes this week and help your Fantasy team. But who is the most likely?
In terms of opportunity, Pringle has 12 targets over the past two games, while Hardman and Robinson both have 10. But Pringle only played 34 snaps last week, compared to 50 for Robinson. Hardman was even worse with 32 snaps.
I have these receivers projected for very similar target shares with Pringle being slightly better in PPR because the types of targets I expect him to run out of the slot should lead to a higher catch rate. Robinson is still my second favorite because he's playing so much more than the other two and Hardman is a very close third.
If you're desperate at receiver this week, you could do a lot worse than any of these Chiefs receivers.
Week 7 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 7 at this time. Here's what it means:
This is a great matchup against the Eagles, and I'd expect big things from Michael Gallup whether Cooper plays or not.
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If Gordon misses Week 7, that could open the door for Jakobi Meyers against the Jets.
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Allen Lazard stepped up big time in Week 6 and should get a big opportunity if Allison and Davante Adams both miss Week 7.
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There's now more opportunity for Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis, but this is a run-heavy offense without a No. 1 receiver.
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Numbers to Know
- 52% - Terry McLaurin's share of Washington's air yards. He's the only receiver above 50%. It's hard to bench him even against a terrible matchup.
- 10.9 - DeAndre Hopkins' average depth of target. That's down from last year and well below Will Fuller. That's made even worse by the fact that his target share is down.
- 9.9 - Tyler Boyd's targets per game. I'm not going to let Week 6 scare me away from him.
- 5 - Alshon Jeffery's aDOT in Week 6. He's getting peppered with targets, but seeing very little down the field. That causes a disparity in his value in PPR vs. non-PPR.
- 16.8 - Darius Slayton's average targeted air yards. He could be a nice boom-or-bust flex until Sterling Shepard returns.
- 100% - JuJu Smith-Schuster's on-target catch rate. Don't do anything silly with him during his bye week. When Mason Rudolph returns, he'll be a fine starter.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
You'd be hard-pressed to find a receiver who made more impressive catches in Week 6 than Tate. He caught five passes for 91 yards and seemingly everyone one of them belonged on a highlight reel. He now has 34 targets across the past four games and double digit Fantasy points in three of those games. It's not a great matchup, but Jacksonville's defense hasn't been as stingy on the road.
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Beasley is the floor play, but everyone's upside goes up against the Dolphins. He has at least 12 PPR points in three of the past four games and did that without reaching the end zone.
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If you subscribe to the theory that the Patriots take away a team's No. 1 option, maybe Crowder will benefit. Then again, Crowder has 26 targets in two games with Sam Darnold, so he may just be the No. 1 option.
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If Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison are both out this week, Lazard becomes a No. 3 receiver with upside.
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Any of the Chiefs receivers are fine dart throws that could become more than that if they separate from the pack.
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Harry is returning to practice this week and Gordon is banged up. He's worth a look in deeper leagues.
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DFS Plays
Boyd's price dropped to $5,600 this week after one of the biggest disappointments of 2019 for this series. Still he's averaging 9.9 targets per game and just flashed his upside two weeks ago with 28.3 PPR points against Arizona. I'm going to buy into the volume and it will pay off ... sooner or later.
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Early ownership projections have Brown well below five percent ownership in a great matchup against the Dolphins. Brown has at least 69 yards in four of five games and has been a little unlucky to not reach the end zone since Week 1. That changes this week.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR |
| PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 13.67 | 22.38 |
2 | 2 | Julian Edelman | 13.45 | 20.58 |
3 | 3 | Cooper Kupp | 12.65 | 19.30 |
7 | 4 | Tyler Boyd | 11.84 | 19.13 |
5 | 5 | Julio Jones | 12.10 | 17.86 |
16 | 6 | DeAndre Hopkins | 11.24 | 17.86 |
4 | 7 | Tyreek Hill | 12.16 | 17.64 |
11 | 8 | Larry Fitzgerald | 11.70 | 17.61 |
8 | 9 | T.Y. Hilton | 11.80 | 17.49 |
6 | 10 | John Brown | 11.89 | 17.05 |
9 | 11 | D.J. Chark | 11.78 | 16.84 |
23 | 12 | Alshon Jeffery | 9.99 | 16.76 |
12 | 13 | Courtland Sutton | 11.69 | 16.72 |
17 | 14 | Will Fuller | 11.23 | 16.66 |
10 | 15 | Michael Gallup | 11.70 | 16.64 |
15 | 16 | Tyler Lockett | 11.35 | 16.54 |
13 | 17 | Terry McLaurin | 11.58 | 16.47 |
14 | 18 | Kenny Golladay | 11.40 | 16.33 |
18 | 19 | Adam Thielen | 11.17 | 16.04 |
20 | 20 | Keenan Allen | 10.22 | 15.72 |
21 | 21 | Allen Robinson | 10.06 | 15.35 |
22 | 22 | Robert Woods | 10.02 | 15.01 |
19 | 23 | Stefon Diggs | 10.75 | 14.84 |
24 | 24 | Golden Tate | 9.78 | 14.61 |
27 | 25 | Auden Tate | 9.44 | 13.93 |
25 | 26 | Brandin Cooks | 9.64 | 13.83 |
38 | 27 | Jamison Crowder | 7.64 | 13.69 |
26 | 28 | Mike Williams | 9.52 | 13.62 |
29 | 29 | Calvin Ridley | 9.12 | 13.37 |
34 | 30 | Cole Beasley | 8.10 | 13.34 |
28 | 31 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.33 | 13.07 |
39 | 32 | Mohamed Sanu | 7.54 | 13.03 |
31 | 33 | Robby Anderson | 8.54 | 13.03 |
30 | 34 | Marvin Jones | 8.76 | 12.81 |
33 | 35 | Dede Westbrook | 8.13 | 12.74 |
32 | 36 | Allen Lazard | 8.25 | 12.63 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 7 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
