Welcome to championship week. This week, in the vast majority of Fantasy Football leagues, we crown a champion. And it is going to be a wild one. It starts on Wednesday as the Chiefs play the Steelers and the Ravens face the Texans. That makes the first point of order for commissioners to make sure their waivers run before those games start at 1 PM Wednesday.
Those teams playing on Wednesday in Week 17 played on Saturday in Week 16. Let's start with a few rapid-fair changes from those games:
- Hollywood Brown is back, further muddying the waters in KC. Brown saw a 19.5% target share in his Chiefs debut, as 10 Chiefs saw a target and six Chiefs saw at least three targets. Xavier Worthy will be my favorite Chiefs receiver against the Steelers, but I don't want to start him. Worthy, Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Travis Kelce all project for between 14-20% target share. Patrick Mahomes gets a little boost due to the addition of Brown and remains a borderline QB1. Oh yeah, Kareem Hunt is back ahead of Isiah Pacheco.
- Tank Dell's injury means you might want to consider Dalton Schultz if you're still streaming tight end. Schultz saw eight targets in Week 16 and has seen at least seven targets in three of his last five games. I've boosted Schultz's target share up to 19% for Week 17.
- Flip a coin between Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris. Over the last three weeks, Harris has a 41% to 33% edge over Warren in rush share, but Warren has a 17% to 3% edge on Harris in target share. It's an awful matchup in Week 17 against the Chiefs, so you probably don't want to start either one. Expect both to be ranked around RB30 this week.
As for Sunday's big changes...
It was every bit as bad as we feared with Dorian Thompson-Robinson
I actually didn't project the Browns offense as bad as I feared. That's because Thompson Robinson has been so uniquely bad as a passer. That continued in Week 16, with 34 pass attempts for 157 yards and two interceptions. I will ding the Browns another 10% in pass-catching efficiency, which may drop Jerry Jeudy outside of my top 40 wide receivers. Since the start of 2023, 53 passers have thrown at least 180 passes. Thompson-Robinson's 3.9 yards per attempt ranks 53rd. Bryce Young is 52nd at 5.7. Thompson-Robinson also has the worst INT rate at 5.0%.
The positives for the Browns came from David Njoku (29% target share) and Jerome Ford (16 touches for 137 yards). You can feel okay about starting those two but stay away from the receivers. Also, go get the Dolphins defense if you still can.
Tony Pollard is in a committee again
Tyjae Spears had two more rush attempts and the same number of targets as Pollard in this game. Spears also scored two goalline touchdowns and did much more with his targets than Pollard. Pollard is not 100% healthy, and the game script may have had something to do with it, but it was also the second week in a row where Spears scored multiple touchdowns. It is a great matchup for the Titans in Week 17, but you are going to have to exercise some caution. If Pollard doesn't practice this week, I won't rank him as better than a flex. If Pollard is out this week, then Spears would be a must-start running back. At the beginning of the week, I am projecting the duo for a near 50-50 split of the running back duties.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is the top tight end streamer
Okonkwo saw 11 targets in Week 16, a week after seeing 10 targets against the Bengals. Mason Rudolph is looking his way, and Okonkwo has caught 17 of those 21 targets this past two weeks, so I would expect Rudolph will keep looking his way. He faces a bad Jaguars pass defense in Week 17, and I will have his target share boosted up to 19% for that game. His recent production likely boosts his catch rate projection up to 75% as well.
Some clarity in Seattle...maybe
Because Kenneth Walker left Seattle's Week 16 game early, we don't actually know who will start at running back for the Seahawks in Week 17. But what we seemed to learn is that Zach Charbonnet is not a threat to Walker when Walker is healthy. Walker had eight rush attempts and saw eight targets in the game. Charbonnet had three touches, two of which came in the fourth quarter. If Walker is healthy for Week 17, start him without reservation. Same goes for Charbonnet if Walker is out. The Vikings do not appear interested in a committee approach.
Not every 49ers backup running back is good
Patrick Taylor was the only San Francisco running back with a rush or a target. That's the good news. The bad news is that he turned those eight rush attempts and five targets into 25 yards and 3.5 PPR Fantasy points. Both Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel had more rushing yards than Taylor, while Kyle Juszczyk had more receiving yards. If Isaac Guerendo is back in Week 17, we'll start him, but we'd really like to avoid Taylor if he's the 49ers' starter against the Lions.