Well, that went about as well as it possibly could have. It would be pretty much impossible for the Ravens to be better in 2020 than they were in 2019. However, if Lamar Jackson takes another step forward as a passer, there could be more Fantasy value to play with here, especially if one or two of the young receivers takes a step forward.
2019 Review
Record: 14-2 (1st in NFL)
PPG: 33.2 (1)
YPG: 407.6 (2)
Pass YPG: 201.6 (27)
Rush YPG: 206.0 (1)
PAPG: 27.5 (32)
RAPG: 37.3 (1)
2019 Fantasy finishes
QB: Lamar Jackson QB1
RB: Mark Ingram RB11; Gus Edwards RB51
WR: Marquise Brown WR46; Willie Snead WR74
TE: Mark Andrews TE5; Hayden Hurst* TE34; Nick Boyle TE35
* No longer on the team
Number to know: No. 1
Let's start with this: The last quarterback to repeat as the No. 1 quarterback in Fantasy is Drew Brees, who did it in 2011-12. Before him, it was Aaron Rodgers in 2009-10, and then Daunte Culpepper in 2003-04. It doesn't happen often.
Jackson was the ninth quarterback in NFL history to record 30 passing touchdowns and 500 rush yards in the same season. How'd the first eight do the year after? Most did quite well — five remained top-10 Fantasy quarterbacks (Russell Wilson did it twice!) — but none finished inside the top three among Fantasy quarterbacks.
Jackson is a Fantasy sensation with 17 games over 20 Fantasy points in his last 21 starts, but history is working against him posting consecutive seasons as the No. 1 quarterback in Fantasy.
2020 Offseason
Draft Picks
1. (28) Patrick Queen, LB
2. (55) J.K. Dobbins, RB
3. (71) Justin Madubuike, DT
3. (92) Devin Duvernay, WR
3. (98) Malik Harrison, LB
3. (106) Tyre Phillips, OT
4. (143) Ben Bredeson, G
5. (170) Broderick Washington Jr., DT
6. (201) James Proche, WR
7. (219) Geno Stone, S
Additions
DL Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe
Key Departures
OG Marshall Yanda; TE Hayden Hurst; WR Seth Roberts; LB Josh Bynes and Patrick Onwuasor; DB Tony Jefferson
Available Opportunity
2 carries, 0 RB targets, 35 WR targets, 39 TE targets
Rankings and Projections
| Heath Cummings' projections | ||
| QB | Lamar Jackson | 3,572 YD, 26 TD, 9 INT; 738 Rush YD, 5 TD |
| RB | Mark Ingram | 869 YD, 8 TD; 26 REC, 213 YD, 1 TD |
| RB | JK Dobbins | 605 YD, 5 TD; 16 REC, 130 YD, 1 TD |
| WR | Marquise Brown | 102 TAR, 66 REC, 842 YD, 7 TD |
| WR | Miles Boykin | 51 TAR, 30 REC, 427 YD, 4 TD |
| WR | Devin Duvernay | 42 TAR, 21 REC, 292 YD, 2 TD |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 111 TAR, 73 REC, 1,051 YD, 8 TD |
Biggest Question
Can Lamar Jackson repeat 2019?
"Jackson's 9.0% passing touchdown rate was higher than Patrick Mahomes' 8.6% in his 2018 MVP's 50-touchdown season, and Jackson also led the league with 6.9 yards per carry on the ground. Jackson's YPC will stay higher than most backs, but by comparison he finished with a 4.7 rate on just 31 fewer rush attempts as a rookie. Close to the perfect Fantasy quarterback, Jackson will nonetheless be hard-pressed to match his passing touchdown and rushing yardage numbers without more attempts." - Ben Gretch
One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust
It's never a bad idea to draft a young running back. It's especially a good idea to take one who joins the league's run-heaviest offense. And, if said young running back in question tallied three 1,000-yard campaigns in college including a 2,000-yard season as a junior, all the better. Dobbins is a wonderful prospect who probably won't take the Ravens run game by storm as a rookie, but 12.5 carries per game went to Ravens other than Ingram and Jackson through Week 16 of last year (Ingram and Jackson didn't play in Week 17), suggesting there's enough carries for Dobbins to be moderately impactful. And if Ingram were to miss significant playing time, Dobbins could really thrive. He's a risk starting at pick No. 80 overall in redraft leagues, but not big enough to overlook.
Brown's devastating speed gives him a chance to be matchup-proof in the same way Tyreek Hill is. We just didn't see much of that after Week 1 of last season. From Week 2 on, Brown never had more than 86 yards in a game and scored just five times. A mid-season ankle injury compounded whatever effects he was still feeling from offseason surgery for a broken foot, so who knows just how healthy Brown really was ... and that's what really stands out. If he's scoring on average every 6.6 receptions and landing a 47% catch rate on deep targets with a bad foot and a bad ankle, just imagine what he's capable of doing when his feet are fine! He has the most upside of the non-top-24 receivers in Fantasy, making him a decent value if you grab him in Round 7.
It's hard to suggest Ingram as a bust because he's been a good Fantasy contributor for so long, but there's nothing but downside when considering him versus his 2019 production. He scored 15 total touchdowns — five receiving! — in a ground-breaking season with Jackson at quarterback. Defenses have schemed for months to beat what the Ravens do, so it's hard to see Ingram repeating. It's even harder to see Ingram, who had 15-plus carries in only six games, replicate his numbers with quality Dobbins joining an already crowded running back group. Tack on Ingram's age (he's 30) and the Ravens offensive line losing All-Pro guard Marshall Yanda and the argument against taking Ingram with a top-50 pick becomes convincing.
Fantasy Previews
AFC East: Bills | Jets | Patriots | Dolphins
NFC East: Giants | Cowboys | Eagles | Redskins
AFC South: Colts | Texans | Jaguars | Titans
NFC South: Panthers | Bucs | Falcons | Saints
AFC North: Ravens | Steelers | Browns | Bengals
NFC North: Packers | Vikings | Bears | Lions
AFC West: Chiefs | Broncos | Raiders | Chargers
NFC West: Seahawks | 49ers | Rams | Cardinals
So which Fantasy football busts should you completely avoid? And which running back going off the board early should you fade? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that called Baker Mayfield's disappointing season, and find out.