The Dolphins had three skill players earn Pro Bowl selections in Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert, and all three of them deserved the recognition this season. All three set career highs in some capacity and helped the Dolphins earn a playoff berth. They also were fantastic for Fantasy managers.
But what about next season? How much can you rely on Tagovailoa, Hill and Mostert in 2024?
Let's start with Hill, who is the easiest to trust. Even though he turns 30 in March, he's still going to be drafted as a No. 1 Fantasy receiver and one of the best players at his position. It would be a shock if he's not a top-five overall pick in all one-quarterback leagues.
In two seasons in Miami, Hill has amassed 238 catches for 3,509 yards and 20 touchdowns. In 2023, Hill had a career-best 1,799 yards to go with 119 catches and 13 touchdowns on 171 targets.
Even though it has to be frustrating for Hill that the Chiefs won two Super Bowls since he was traded from Kansas City to Miami in 2022, he has thrived personally with the Dolphins with the best two-year run of his career. This also was the eighth Pro Bowl of his career -- in eight seasons.
"I'm very grateful to be in this position," Hill said. "Just to be able to say I've done this eight times in my career, it's still surreal. I've been dreaming of this since I was a kid."
If there is a drawback for Hill, it's his age since turning 30 hasn't worked out well for most receivers in the past 10 years. Prior to 2023, only 17 receivers at 30 or older have averaged at least 15.0 PPR points per game, with only three -- Brandon Marshall in 2015 at age 31 (21.2 PPR points per game), Jordy Nelson in 2016 at 31 (19.0) and Antonio Brown in 2018 at 30 (21.6) -- performing at Hill's level.
In 2023, there were 10 prominent receivers who started the season at 30 or older or turned 30 during the year (Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans and Brandin Cooks), and only four averaged at least 15.0 PPR points per game in Allen (21.1), Evans (16.6), Diggs (16.1) and Adams (15.6).
I'm still confident in Hill despite his age. But this is a potential drawback when comparing him to other elite receivers like Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase.
For what it's worth, Tagovailoa is not expecting Hill to slow down despite his age. I asked Tagovailoa what makes Hill so special as a receiver.
"How he runs routes," Tagovailoa said. "And to top how he runs routes, the speed that he has. That's what separates him. It really is mind blowing."
Tagovailoa benefits from having two game-breaking receivers in Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Even though Waddle's production dropped from 15.4 PPR points per game in 2022 to 14.2 in 2023, he's still among the best receivers in the NFL.
Fantasy managers should plan to draft Waddle, who had 72 catches for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns in 2023, in Round 3. Tagovailoa said he's lucky to have two receivers like Hill and Waddle.
"Same thing for Jaylen that I said about Tyreek," Tagovailoa said. "It makes it tough for defenses to have to cover both of those guys."
Tagovailoa's receiving corps and coach in Mike McDaniel have turned him into a quality Fantasy quarterback. Tagovailoa finished No. 9 in total Fantasy points this past season but No. 16 in points per game at 20.9.
He led the NFL in passing yards with a career-high 4,624 to go with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and he added 74 rushing yards. Most importantly, Tagovailoa was able to stay healthy for the entire season after dealing with concussion issues in 2022.
"My main goal this year was to play 17-plus games," Tagovailoa said. "I was able to accomplish that goal. And just very fortunate that I was able to do that and very happy, too."
Fantasy managers aren't likely to covet Tagovailoa on Draft Day in one-quarterback leagues, but he will be an excellent late-round pick as a low-end starter or high-end reserve. He still has top-10 upside based on the talent around him and his system.
As for Mostert, he should remain with the Dolphins in 2024 even though he'll be 32 in April. He just set career highs in carries (209), rushing yards (1,012) and rushing touchdowns (18), which were the most in the NFL, and he also added 25 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns. His 21 total touchdowns tied Christian McCaffrey for the NFL lead. Mostert averaged 18.0 PPR points per game, which was third behind only McCaffrey (24.7) and Kyren Williams (21.4).
Mostert became the first running back at age 30 or older to rush for at least 1,000 yards since Mark Ingram in 2019. And of the 657 1,000-yard rushers since 1970, only 50 were in their 30's, which doesn't bode well for older running backs.
But Mostert told me he's trying to prove that older running backs can still be successful, and he's looking forward to another big season in 2024. He said what helped him in 2023 was great playcalling, eating healthier with "a lot more greens" and just staying healthy in general. In two seasons with the Dolphins, Mostert has missed a combined three games.
"I'm going to be more determined like I was this year, even more next year," Mostert said. "Just stay tuned."
The problem for Mostert, even more than his age, is the emergence of De'Von Achane. He was a special talent as a rookie when he averaged 17.5 PPR points per game, and Achane had 103 carries for 800 yards and eight touchdowns and 27 catches for 197 yards and three touchdowns in just 11 games.
Mostert said watching Achane was fun, and he was proud of what Achane accomplished as a rookie.
"He's a stud," Mostert said. "I can't wait to see what he does next year."
Fantasy managers are going to target Achane in Round 2 with the expectation he will take over the Dolphins backfield. That should once again make Mostert a great value pick on Draft Day, and he was selected in Round 10 based on his CBS Sports Average Draft Position in 2023.
I don't expect Mostert will fall that far this season -- he will likely be drafted in Round 8 as of now -- but he could once again surprise Fantasy managers in 2024. And maybe, if things go right, Mostert could once again find himself in the Pro Bowl with a few of his teammates.
