If you want to see how the NFL is changing, start with the fact that Derrick Henry led the NFL with 280 rush attempts in 2023. It was the first time since 1990 that no running back reached 300 attempts. And the vast majority of those years were 16-game seasons. The truth is that teams are chopping the duties, both rushing and receiving, more than they ever have. If you go looking for a traditional workhorse running back, you aren't likely to find one. With Henry going to Baltimore where Lamar Jackson handles 30% of the rush attempts, we may not even get a back to 275 this year.
This change leads us to focusing more on roles. Pass-catching backs are a huge advantage in full PPR leagues, but you also need to know how big the pass-catching pie is in a given offense. For example, Sean Payton's Broncos threw a league-high 153 passes to their RBs last year, while the Rams only threw 69. Kyren Williams was able to make up for that difference because of his role in the red zone, and the way he dominated running back touches for the Rams when he was on the field.
One other thing to watch out for this year at running back is all the old faces in new places. Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and Aaron Jones are all on different teams. Historically speaking, veteran backs changing teams have a checkered path, and some of those guys are going in the first three rounds of Fantasy drafts. Decide before your draft just how much you want to trust these backs that their own teams just let walk.
Running back draft strategy
Before we talk running back draft strategy, we need to talk about Best Ball leagues and the impact they may have on redraft ADP this year. Best Ball drafts have gone ridiculously heavy on wide receivers, with 26 of the top 36 picks being wide receivers on Underdog. For reference, based on CBS PPR ADP, 15 wide receivers are being drafted in the first three rounds. Never has it been more important to know your league, and which trends you think they'll follow.
As for my strategy, I often find myself taking two running backs in the first three rounds, even in full PPR. This happens more often when I draft early in Round 1 and start with Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, or Breece Hall. Those are by far the three most likely backs to finish as RB1 in 2023. But even if I have one of them, I have a hard time passing on James Cook, Travis Etienne, Isiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs or Rachaad White early in Round 3.
This is a big change from past years, and mostly because of trends in ADP. I understand if you can't change your stripes, and want to draft wide receivers early. But if I happen to land a pair of top seven wide receivers in the first two rounds, I am okay with that as well. I just wouldn't overdraft any running backs in Round 3 or 4. Once the top 12 or 13 running backs are gone, I am comfortable waiting until Round 5 or later, because that's where the tiers get much bigger and that's where ADP diverges from my rankings.
Later in drafts, the running backs you take should be determined by your roster construction. If you're starting Hero-RB or Zero-RB, then there may be some value later in one or two backs who are guaranteed touches. But if you already have your starters, I stop caring about projections later in the draft and look for upside backs like Jonathon Brooks, Trey Benson, Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears, and Jaylen Wright, backs who could be league winners if they get enough touches.
Now let's get into the sleepers, breakouts, and busts at the position:
This is Charbonnet's second year on my sleeper list. While he didn't fully pay off last year, from Week 11 through Week 13 Charbonnet averaged 19.7 touches 75.3 yards, and 13.2 PPR Fantasy points per game. If Kenneth Walker misses time I would expect that kind of workload with better efficiency. Both he and Walker have the contingent upside of a top-12 running back. The fact that there's a new coaching staff also opens up the possibility that Charbonnet's role when Walker is healthy is bigger than it was last year. Charbonnet's ADP has been falling the past month because Walker looks like the clear lead back, but that only makes it easier to draft Charbonnet as a bench piece.
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Wright is a rookie running back with 4.3 speed who averaged 7.4 yards per carry in college and now he's in Mike McDaniel's system. The two backs ahead of him are 32-year-old Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane who struggled to stay healthy last year. An injury to one of those guys and Wright could become a boom/bust RB2 and injury to both and Wright could become a must-start RB1. These are the types of players you should be drafting in the double-digit rounds.
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McLaughlin looks like the clear RB2 behind Javonte Williams after Samaje Perine was cut. Payton's system is friendly enough to running backs that there is room for more than one contributor in this backfield. Last year the team ranked number six in total running back opportunities (506) and number one with a 32% running back target rate. McLaughlin's 5.4 yards per carry was nearly a full yard better than anyone else on the team.
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Robinson's upside, simply put, involves him being the best running back in football, and the best player in Fantasy Football, with more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and more than 20 touchdowns. The best of Christian McCaffrey is attainable, and Robinson and Hall are the only two backs I can say that about with a straight face. He's more insulated from risk than London and Pitts. If Cousins isn't quite cousins, Robinson may be even better. Whether the offense trends pass heavy or run heavy, their running back will be heavily featured. In short, I agree with his ADP, he's the closest thing you can get to a guaranteed breakout.
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Almost everything I said about Robinson applies to Hall and I would take Hall one pick earlier. And yes, he was RB2 overall last year, but with 300 fewer yards and three fewer touchdowns than I'm projecting this year. We expect the offensive line to be better and we expect Aaron Rodgers to be an upgrade over the quarterbacks Hall has played with the past two seasons. Like Robinson, I would not be surprised at all if Hall broke Fantasy and finished as RB1 this season.
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I had Cook projected as a breakout in this section last year, and boy did that work out. I still don't think we've seen his best over a full season yet. Start with his workload in nine games with OC Joe Brady calling plays. That 17-game projection is for 289 rush attempts and 66 targets. Now factor in that he's averaged an elite 5.0 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per target in his career. In case you don't want to do the math from home, that's 1,926 total yards. A ridiculous projection, for sure, but not an unattainable upside. The real upside comes from the rushing TDs. He had two on 89 carries in 2022, and two on 237 in 2023. he probably needs six to be a top-five running back with the workload we expect this year. I believe he can do it.
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Barkley actually has the sixth-highest ADP on the board, just ahead of Jonathan Taylor and Amon-Ra St/ Brown, five picks ahead of A.J. Brown, seven picks ahead of Kyren Williams, and eight picks ahead of Garrett Wilson. I would rather draft all of those guys (as well as Marvin Harrison, Travis Etienne, and James Cook). Barkley will battle Jalen Hurts for short yardage work and I expect Hurts to win that battle. Hurts also hampers Barkley's receiving upside because neither he or Kellen Moore has been all that friendly to pass-catching running backs. There's no upside at his ADP and there is a legitimate chance he's not a top 12 running back, much less a top 12 player.
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He's a 30-year-old running back who doesn't catch passes on a team with a QB who takes 30% of the team's rush attempts and doesn't throw to running backs. Gus Edwards scored 13 touchdowns in this offense and still only averaged 11.5 Fantasy points per game. Henry averaged a career-low 4.5 yards per touch last year and I do not like betting on bouncebacks from veterans. Also, the Ravens offensive line will not be as good as it was last year.
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Numbers to know
- 325 -- Travis Etienne saw 325 touches last year, a huge increase from his total of 255 as a rookie. The Jaguars have talked about lightening his load, and Tank Bigsby has looked better this preseason.
- 3.3 -- Christian McCaffrey was 3.3 FPPG better than any other running back in PPR last year and he had a 6.7-point edge on RB3. He's the clear 1.01 in all one-QB leagues even with a calf injury.
- 18 -- Raheem Mostert scored 18 rushing touchdowns last year. He had 14 career rushing TDs before 2024. Expect regression.
- 7.8 -- De'Von Achane averaged 7.8 yards per carry, which is about 20% better than any running back's career average. Expect regression.
- 236 -- No running back has more than 236 carries in a season under Matt LaFleur. Josh Jacobs had 233 carries in 13 games last year.
- 23.3 -- Zamir White averaged 23.3 touches per game in four games without Josh Jacobs last year.
- 574 -- Arthur Smith's Atlanta Falcons led the NFL with 574 running back opportunities last year. He's in Pittsburgh now with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
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Zero-RB targets
I'll update this list as ADP solidifies, but for now, there is no shortage of running backs available if you want to focus on quarterback and pass catchers in the first five-plus rounds. I tried to include a good mix of floor and upside guys because I would like to have some pass-catching backs to start while I wait for the backups to gain jobs. For this version, I'm using CBS Sports PPR ADP. For the most part, the suggested round is a round earlier than the player is actually being drafted. You can't be too cute getting your guys at running back if you punt on the early rounds.
Round 6 - Javonte Williams, Tony Pollard
Round 7 - Tyjae Spears, Jaylen Warren, Trey Benson
Round 8 - Jaylen Warren, Tyjae Spears
Round 9 - Jonathon Brooks, Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle
Round 10 -Chuba Hubbard, Zach Charbonnet
Round 11 - Ty Chandler, Marshawn Lloyd, Rico Dowdleyler Allgeier
Round 12 or later - Jaleel McLaughlin, Kimani Vidal, Jaylen Wright, Khalil Herbert, Tank Bigsby, Braelon Allen, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, Tyrone Tracy
Handcuff rankings
Below are the top 10 PPR handcuffs to draft on Draft Day. Obviously, David Montgomery is much more than a handcuff, but the reason he's on this list, and someone like Tyrone Tracy is not, is the fact that Montgomery could be a league-winner in the event Jahmyr Gibbs gets hurt. Tracy's role might not change change with one injury. So, while Montgomery can be a flex in a PPR league even without an injury, he's also one of the best handcuffs. I don't traditionally draft handcuffs to my starters, but I don't mind taking someone else's.
1. David Montgomery
2. Trey Benson
3. Ty Chandler
4. Blake Corum
5. Jaylen Wright
6. Bucky Irving
7. Tyler Allgeier
8. Ray Davis
9. Tank Bigsby
10. Braelon Allen
Tiers
Projections
Which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.
