Every week I will give you facts that you need to know about every matchup in the NFL to help you set your lineup for the highest probability of winning.
The bye weeks have finally begun and you will be without your Panthers and Packers. With that in mind, let's dig deep here in Week 4 to get a win.
49ers at Rams, Thu., 8:30 p.m. ET
• After throwing for 412 yards and three touchdowns in the season
opener, Colin Kaepernick has just 277
yards passing with no scores and three interceptions in his last two
games.
• Kaepernick did not throw a touchdown in 49 passes against
the Rams last year, although St. Louis has allowed at least two passing
scores in every game this year and has given up seven total on the
season, third most in the NFL. You have to wonder if 'Kap has the
weapons to be the fourth straight quarterback with two scores and at
least 21 Fantasy points against the Rams this year.
• Frank Gore picked up a season-high 103 total yards on only 13 touches
against the Colts in Week 3. The Rams allowed a season-high 193 yards
rushing and 27 Fantasy points to the Dallas backs in Week 3. DeMarco Murray ran 26 times for 175 yards and a touchdown in that game.
•
Gore has scored in two straight games against the Rams and opposing
running backs have scored and produced at least 24 Fantasy points
against the Rams in their last two. For the year, the Rams have allowed
150 total yards, a touchdown and 20 Fantasy points per game (sixth most).
•
The opposing No. 1 receiver has scored every week and four times total
against the Rams this year, most in the NFL, so hopefully Anquan Boldin can get back into the end zone in Week 4.
• Vernon Davis has been held to fewer than 40 yards and without a
touchdown in three of his last four games against the Rams. Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez have
100 yards receiving and no scores combined in their meetings with the
Rams this year.
• The 49ers have allowed just 306 yards and one
touchdown through the air the last two weeks, after giving up 333 and
three to Aaron Rodgers in the opener. Sam Bradford averaged just under 250 yards with one score against
San Francisco in 2012. He threw for only 240 yards and one score on 48
attempts in a blowout loss to Dallas after throwing for 651 yards and
five scores in the first two weeks.
• Daryl Richardson re-injured his foot in Week 3 and Isaiah Pead could be the primary runner on the short turnaround in
Week 4. If Richardson is truly good to go, both he and Pead face a 49ers
run defense that has given up a rushing touchdown in every game this
year and at least two rushing scores in each of the last two weeks. For
the season, the 49ers have allowed a league high six rushing scores and
have now surrendered 10 in their last nine games overall.
• Yep, the
49ers allow a league high 25.3 Fantasy points per game to running backs
in 2013 on 112.67 yards rushing (fourth most) and two total scores per
game. They were the toughest on runners in each of the 2011 and 2012
seasons.
• Austin Pettis has a
touchdown catch in four of his last five games. He has also produced
fewer than 25 yards receiving in four of his last five games.
• Tavon Austin is one of five receivers to have at least six catches in
every game this year. He does not have 50 yards receiving in a game this
year, however.
Seahawks at Texans Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• With a banged up Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub crashed back to earth in Week 3 against the Ravens with
194 yards and one interception. It will not get any easier against a
Seattle defense that leads the league in yards passing (162), touchdowns
(0.33) and Fantasy points per game (8.0) to opposing quarterbacks.
•
The Jags did score twice on the ground against the Seattle backups in
Week 3, but those are the only rushing scores Seattle has surrendered
all season. Seattle is fourth toughest on running backs this year,
allowing just 9.67 Fantasy points per game.
• Running backs are
gaining just 51.7 yards per game against Seattle (third fewest) on 2.9
yards per carry (also third).
• Arian Foster took 12 carries to Ben Tate's
nine in Week 3 and Foster has topped 60 yards rushing in just one of his
three games this year. After scoring in 13 of 16 games a year ago, he
has just one score in three games this year.
• With Johnson banged up
the last two weeks, DeAndre Hopkins has
caught 13 of his 20 targets for 177 yards and a touchdown. The opposing
top target has scored or topped 100 yards against the Seahawks in two of
three games this year.
• Russell Wilson
had his first 20-point Fantasy game in Week 3, as he tossed four
touchdowns on just 21 pass attempts against the Jags. Two of the three
quarterbacks to face the Texans have thrown for multiple scores, but
only Philip Rivers back in Week 1 was
able to top 20 Fantasy points.
• The Texans are allowing just 171.3
yards passing per game this year, second fewest in the NFL, trailing
only their Week 4 opponent -- the Seahawks.
• In Week 3, Bernard Pierce became the first running back to score against the
Texans. Despite that fact, the opposing starter is still averaging 10.67
Fantasy points per game against them, so we should actually get some
Beast Mode on Sunday.
• I don't trust any of the Seattle receivers on
a weekly basis because none of them rank in the Top 60 in terms of
targets. Until that changes, I will go with higher upside options.
Bengals at Browns, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Brian Hoyer became the first
Browns quarterback to throw three touchdowns since 2009, snapping a
54-game streak. He also threw for 321 yards in his Browns debut but
faces a Bengals defense that has not allowed a 300-yard passer in an
NFL-best 14 straight games.
• This same Cincinnati pass defense just
held Aaron Rodgers to 244 yards passing
with one score and two interceptions on a season-worst 5.7 yards per
attempt. Only two quarterbacks in the last 12 have reached 20 points
against the Bengals.
• Josh Gordon
is a major difference maker for the Browns and a superstar in the
making. Gordon led the NFL with 19 targets in Week 3, catching 10 of
them for 146 yards and a touchdown. The opposing No. 1 receiver has
scored in two of three games against the Bengals while producing an
average of 10 Fantasy points per game. The Bengals have allowed 21-plus
Fantasy points and a touchdown to the receiver position in every game
this year.
• Jordan Cameron is
the No. 2 Fantasy tight end after three games with 20 catches for 269
yards and four touchdowns. He has at least 60 yards receiving in every
game, but the Bengals have not allowed any tight end groups over 50
yards receiving. That will change. I am not sitting Cameron.
• Every
Fantasy defense has scored at least 11 points against the Browns this
year and they are averaging 13.33 Fantasy points per game, seventh most
in the NFL.
• Week 3 marked the first time that Giovanni Bernard (30 snaps) played more than BenJarvus Green-Ellis (23 snaps). Bernard had played at least 15 fewer
snaps than Green-Ellis in each of the first two games.
• Bernard's
total touches and yards have increased each week from six and 30 in Week
1 to nine and 65 in Week 2 and 14 and 99 in Week 3. He has scored in two
straight games and is looking like a permanent No. 2 runner/flex option.
A running back has scored in every game against the Browns this year and
one has produced at least 11 Fantasy points in back-to-back games.
•
The Browns have not allowed a 300-yard passer or multiple passing scores
in a single game this year. They are providing only 16 Fantasy points
per game to opposing quarterbacks and Christian Ponder needed two rushing scores to get to 21 against them in
Week 3. Andy Dalton threw for 300 yards
and three scores in both games against the Browns in 2012, but Joe Haden missed one of them and the second meeting was his first
game back after a month-long suspension.
• A.J. Green has scored or topped 110 yards in all four of his career
starts against the Browns. He has just 87 yards receiving total in his
last two games of this season, however, but did score against the
Packers in Week 3.
• The Browns have not allowed a single tight end
touchdown this year, nor has a tight end reached 60 yards receiving
against them. Cleveland is allowing three Fantasy points per game to
tight ends, third fewest in the NFL.
Bears at Lions, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Through three games, Matthew Stafford
has two touchdowns every time out and is averaging a healthy 340 yards
passing and 23.3 Fantasy points per game. He and Peyton Manning are the only two quarterbacks to finish in the Top 12
in each of the first three weeks. With Charles Tillman banged up, Stafford and co. could have a field day
against a Chicago pass defense that just gave up 406 yards and two
scores (with two interceptions) to Ben Roethlisberger. Two of the first three quarterbacks to face the
Bears have thrown for multiple touchdowns with Christian Ponder the lone exception. Stafford had 273 yards and three
scores himself in his last game against Da Bears.
• With Nate Burleson out with a broken arm, Ryan Broyles will play a bigger role this week against the Bears. He
posted 10 or more Fantasy points in three of his final six games a year
ago and caught all three of his targets for 34 yards in his 2013 debut
last week. Burleson had at least six catches in every game this year
prior to his injury, but the opposing No. 2 receiver has not reached 50
yards against the Bears yet this year, so I only like Broyles in PPR
leagues.
• Calvin Johnson has
100 yards receiving with a score in back-to-back games. He has 100 yards
receiving in 10 of his last 12 games, but has not reached the century
mark in three straight against Chicago. If Tillman is not 100 percent,
and even if he is, that is likely to change. Both A.J. Green and Antonio Brown have
100-plus yards with a score against Chicago this year.
• Joique Bell has at least 18 Fantasy points in two games this year, one
with Reggie Bush active and one with him
out. He will get the goal line carries, but keep in mind that Detroit
did not have a rushing score against Chicago last year and only one
runner has scored on the Bears in 2013 (BenJarvus Green-Ellis back in
Week 1).
• No running back has more than 13 yards receiving against
the Bears this year and none have produced more than eight Fantasy
points, including Adrian Peterson.
Chicago is sixth toughest on runners right now at 10.67 points per game.
•
Believe it or not, the Lions are the second toughest defense on Fantasy
quarterbacks right now, allowing just 10.33 Fantasy points per game.
They are the only Top 12 quarterback defense that allows 270 yards
passing per game, but through three weeks they have given up only two
touchdowns and have five interceptions.
• Robert Griffin III and Carson Palmer
combined for just 25 Fantasy points against the Lions in Weeks 2 and 3
respectively, so it might not be as easy as one would think for Jay Cutler. Cutler averaged 202.5 yards and one touchdown in two
games with the Lions last year and has just one 20-point game through
three weeks of 2013.
• Both of the passing touchdowns allowed by the
Lions this year have gone to running backs. Matt Forte leads all running backs with 19 catches in 2013 and has
produced at least 13 Fantasy points in every game this year. Detroit has
allowed at least one running back touchdown in every game, two in two of
them and is giving up 24 Fantasy points per game to the position --
second most in the NFL -- on 130 total yards and two scores per game.
•
The Lions have not allowed a single receiver or tight end to score this
year. Only Jerome Simpson has topped 80
yards receiving or 10 points as receiver. I still start Brandon Marshall after a lackluster Week 3.
• No tight end has
reached 55 yards or produced six Fantasy points against the Lions in
2013. Martellus Bennett enters Week 4
with at least 10 Fantasy points in two games, but he was held to just 10
yards on two catches in Week 3.
• The Bears defense already has three
touchdowns this year, the same number as the Jacksonville offense.
Colts at Jaguars, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Trent Richardson's debut with
the Colts looked like many of his Browns games. He ran 13 times for 35
yards (2.7 yards per carry) and a touchdown with a long run of nine
yards. He played 28 of the team's 72 offensive snaps and did not catch a
single one of his three targets.
• Meanwhile, Ahmad Bradshaw ran 19 times for 95 yards (5.0 yards per carry) and a
touchdown with a long run of 27 yards. He caught three of his four
targets for another 16 yards and led the runners with 39 snaps played.
It was Bradshaw who received all of the clock grinding duty in the
fourth quarter as well.
• I do think that the Colts will want to
unleash Trent in Week 4 against a Jacksonville team that is allowing 128
yards rushing per game to running backs, second most, on a league-high
5.1 yards per carry. Two running back groups have 22 points against the
Jags, who are allowing over 18.3 per game, eighth most.
• Andrew Luck now has seven rushing scores for his career, the same
number as Robert Griffin III. He will
take on a Jacksonville defense that gave up 323 yards passing and five
scores to the Seahawks on 11.1 yards per attempt in Week 3. Two of the
three quarterbacks to face the Jags have thrown for multiple touchdowns
and produced 20-plus points, with Terrelle Pryor
as the lone exception. Luck has multiple scores and 20-plus points in
both career games against the Jags.
• The Jags have allowed a
league-high five wide receiver touchdowns through three games this year. T.Y. Hilton had 100 yards and a touchdown in his first meeting with
the Jaguars in 2012, but I do not like that he played fewer snaps than Darrius Heyward-Bey (39 to 58) after playing more than him in Week 2
(50 to 33).
• Seattle's tight ends topped 100 yards and scored two
touchdowns en route to a 23-point day in Week 3 against the Jaguars.
Hopefully Coby Fleener can get back on
track in Week 4, but it should be noted that the Colts tight ends did
not score against Jacksonville last year.
• Cecil Shorts leads the NFL with 40 targets through three games and
caught eight passes for 143 yards in Week 3. He has at least eight
catches and 93 yards in both of Chad Henne's
starts this year while averaging eight for 118 yards. Now Shorts faces
an Indianapolis team that he scored on in both meetings last year, going
for 80 yards and a touchdown (14 points) with Blaine Gabbert and then six catches for 105 yards and a score (16
points) with Henne in Week 11.
• Maurice Jones-Drew defied the odds to score against Seattle in Week 3,
but he finished the day with just 43 yards on his 19 carries. He does
not have 50 yards rushing yet in a game this year, but faces a Colts
team that has allowed a running back touchdown and at least 10 Fantasy
points to the opposing starter in every game. Even better is that the
opposing primary ball carrier has seen his yardage total rise in every
game against the Colts from 48 in Week 1 to 69 in Week 2 and 82 in Week
3. Oh yeah, MJD has 100 yards rushing in five of his last six against
the Colts, which is nice.
• Opposing Fantasy defenses have scored at
least 15 Fantasy points in every game against the Jags this year. For
the season, defenses are averaging 20 Fantasy points per game against
the Jags -- second most in the NFL -- and Jacksonville has allowed a
league-high 15 sacks. The Chiefs scored 30 in Week 1 with Gabbert at
quarterback.
Cardinals at Buccaneers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Tom Brady became the first
quarterback to throw multiple touchdowns against the Bucs in 2013, but
he still fell short of the 20-point mark, just like every quarterback
they have faced in 2013, including Drew Brees.
•
After a hot start, Carson Palmer has
really struggled the last two weeks with just 435 yards passing, one
touchdown and three interceptions combined. He scored 13 Fantasy points
against Detroit in Week 2 and was held to just three against the Saints
in Week 3. This is a tough matchup and if Larry Fitzgerald remains at less than 100 percent it is one to
clearly avoid.
• With Rashard Mendenhall
at less than full speed in Week 3, Alfonso Smith
took the team's goal line carry and scored. However, it was Andre Ellington who led the team's running backs with 27 snaps
played. Stay away from this situation unless Mendenhall is totally
healthy and especially stay away this week against a Tampa Bay defense
that has not allowed a runner to score or rush for 70 yards in a game
this year.
• Larry Fitzgerald
in Week 1: eight catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns for a 20-point
day. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and Andre Roberts
combined in Weeks 2-3: 18 receptions for 200 yards and 18 Fantasy points.
•
Kenbrell Thompkins became the first
receiver to score against the Bucs, when he scored twice against them in
Week 2. For the year, no receiver has reached 65 yards against Tampa Bay
and only Thompkins has exceeded six Fantasy points.
• Keep an eye on Rob Housler if you need tight end help. He played 39 of the team's
52 snaps and ran 26 of the 42 pass routes in his first game back from
injury. He had only one catch for 13 yards on three targets, but could
emerge as a "Bye Week Broski" against a Tampa team that allowed 13
Fantasy points to Kellen Winslow in Week
1 and 23 to Jimmy Graham in Week 2.
•
Doug Martin is one of only five backs
to have at least 10 Fantasy points in every game this year.
Unfortunately, the lack of touchdowns has kept him from any big weeks of
18-plus points.
• The Cardinals have yet to allow a running back
touchdown this year, but they are vulnerable to pass catching backs.
They have allowed 80-plus yards receiving to backs in each of the last
two weeks. Martin enters Week 4 with only four receptions for 19 yards
in three games. He averaged 30 yards receiving per game in 2012, so
hopefully they get him more involved with Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams
nursing minor injuries.
• Speaking of Jackson, he has not scored in
six straight games and has just 107 yards in his last two games combined
against the Saints and the Patriots. Calvin Johnson is the only receiver to score 10 or more Fantasy points
against the Cardinals this year and he erupted for 116 yards and two
scores in Week 2.
• Mike Williams
has not scored in back-to-back games either and produced 70-plus yards
receiving just twice since Week 6 of the 2012 season. Only Calvin Johnson (116) and Marques Colston
(71) have reached 70 yards against the Cardinals this year.
•
Opposing defenses have scored 14.3 Fantasy points per game against the
Bucs this year, fourth most. They have also scored 12.3 against the
Cardinals, 10th most.
Giants at Chiefs, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Eli Manning has been held to one
or fewer touchdowns now in 10 of his last 14 games. The good news is
that in his four big games, he has 16 total touchdowns. The bad news is
that Eli has six multi-interception games during that span as well.
•
No quarterback has reached 20 Fantasy points (average 11 per game), 300
yards passing or thrown for multiple scores against the Chiefs this
year. Kansas City has allowed only two passing scores this year, fewest
in the NFL, and has already forced six quarterback turnovers. They also
lead the NFL with 15 sacks, which is bad news for Eli, who was just
sacked seven times alone in Week 3.
• David Wilson took his highest share of the carries yet in Week 3, as
he handled 11 of the team's 15 handoffs. Unfortunately they netted only
39 yards, but he did have a touchdown called back to due to a holding
penalty. LeSean McCoy just ran for 159
yards and a score against the Chiefs in Week 3, but in the first two
weeks of the season they held Maurice Jones-Drew
and DeMarco Murray to a combined 70
yards on 27 carries (2.6 yards per carry).
• Hakeem Nicks saw only one target in Week 3 and failed to catch a
single pass just like it was Week 16 of 2012 all over again. Dez Bryant (141 yards and a touchdown for 20 points) is the only
outside receiver to score or exceed six Fantasy points against the
Chiefs defense, who locked down Cecil Shorts
(Week 1) and DeSean Jackson (Week 3).
•
I would be nervous about Brandon Myers
this week, as Kansas City has not allowed a tight end to have 35 yards
receiving in a single game this year. Jason Witten
and Brent Celek combined for 30 yards
receiving in the last two games against the Chiefs.
• Victor Cruz has at least eight targets in every game this year and
Philly slot receiver Jason Avant led the
team with five catches for 87 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. Wide
receivers have 20-plus points in back-to-back games against the Chiefs,
but Cruz is the only one I see as a good start this week for the Giants.
•
Opposing defenses have scored at least 17 Fantasy points in each game
against the Giants and have produced 27 twice. They are giving up an
average of 23.7 Fantasy points per game -- most in the NFL -- which
sounds like a great matchup for the top Fantasy defense in 2013 to feast
on.
• Jamaal Charles is the
only running back in the NFL with 100 total yards and a touchdown in all
three games this year.
• Quarterbacks have at least 20 Fantasy points
and multiple touchdowns in every game against the Giants this year. New
York has allowed seven passing touchdowns this year -- fourth most in
the NFL -- and quarterbacks are scoring an average 25.7 Fantasy points
per game, seventh most in the NFL. Alex Smith
scored 20-plus in each of his first two games and is a good sleeper to
rebound in Week 4 after a disappointing Week 3.
• Donnie Avery led the Chiefs with seven catches for 141 yards against
the Eagles. He caught all of his targets in that game and faces a Giants
team that just gave up two scores to Carolina's No. 2 receiver, Brandon LaFell.
• Dwayne Bowe
has a disappointing nine catches for 90 yards and a touchdown in three
games in 2013. So far the Giants have held Dez Bryant (22 yards), Demaryius Thomas
(52 yards) and Steve Smith (40 yards)
all under 60 yards and without a touchdown.
Ravens at Bills, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Every quarterback who has faced the Bills has scored at least 19
Fantasy points and thrown two touchdowns. Joe Flacco enters Week 4 with 20 Fantasy points and one touchdown
pass total in his last two.
• In a year without many 100-yard
rushers, the Bills have already allowed two in three games, including Bilal Powell, who ran for 149 yards against them in Week 3. For the
season, opposing runners are averaging a league-high 146.7 yards rushing
per game against Buffalo on 4.6 yards per carry. They are also giving up
a league-high 178 total yards per game to the position.
• Bernard Pierce has scored and produced at least 11 Fantasy points in
each of the last two games. Even if Ray Rice
returns this week, Pierce is a flex option and Rice a starter against an
injured Bills defense.
• Torrey Smith
has yet to score in 2013 but is 10th among all wide receivers with 269
yards receiving through three games. His 269 yards are the same as Brandon Marshall and one more than Calvin Johnson.
Smith has at least 85 yards receiving in every single game this year and
the Bills struggle with vertical receivers. They have already allowed
three touchdowns of 40-plus yards and the average passing touchdown
against them is 31.7 yards, also the league-high..
• The Bills have
already allowed a league-high five wide receiver touchdowns this year
and are giving up 31 Fantasy points per game to the position. The
opposing No. 2 receiver has scored in every single game against the
Bills this year, so Marlon Brown could
get back into the end zone this week.
• Buffalo was sacked a
league-worst eight times in Week 3, which is good news for the Ravens
defense, which enters this game coming off of a monster 25-point Fantasy
day against the Texans. Baltimore's D has at least 15 points in each of
the last two games.
• C.J. Spiller
had 10 total yards on 10 touches before leaving with an injury in Week
3. He has just one game of 10 Fantasy points this year and faces a
Baltimore defense that has not allowed a single rusher to score a
touchdown, generate 60 rushing yards or top seven Fantasy points.
•
The Ravens are allowing just 10 Fantasy points per game to the running
back position, which puts Fred Jackson's
streak of three straight games of 10-plus Fantasy points in serious
jeopardy. Jackson is one of only five runners with 10 points in every
game this year.
• Steve Johnson
leads the Bills with 17 catches for 236 yards and two scores on 29
targets (14th among all receivers). He has at least nine Fantasy points
in every game this year and is averaging 12 per game. After being
slaughtered by the Broncos in Week 1, no receiver has scored or reached
61 yards receiving against Baltimore.
Steelers at Vikings, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Ben Roethlisberger just threw
for 406 yards and two scores (with three turnovers) and will face a
Vikings defense that just allowed Brian Hoyer
to throw for 321 yards and three scores (with three turnovers). The
Vikings have given up a league-high eight passing scores this year and
every quarterback who has faced them has thrown for 292 yards, multiple
scores and produced at least 23 Fantasy points. For the year,
quarterbacks are averaging 323.3 yards (fifth most), 2.67 touchdowns
(the most) and 23.7 Fantasy points per game against Minnesota.
• Antonio Brown exploded with 196 yards and two scores on nine catches
and 13 targets. He has at least five catches in every game this year and
his 20 total grabs rank tied for sixth in the NFL.
• Minnesota shut
down Calvin Johnson in Week 1, holding
him to 37 yards on four catches. In Week 2, opposing top target Brandon Marshall got the best of the Vikes with seven catches for 113
yards and a touchdown. Last week, Josh Gordon
caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a score against the Vikes, so the
opposing top targets have produced at least 17 Fantasy points in each of
the last two games against the Vikes.
• No opposing No. 2 receiver
has scored or produced eight Fantasy points against the Vikings this
year. Emmanuel Sanders has 16 catches on
the season, but has not scored yet and only has deep PPR value for Week
4.
• Le'Veon Bell will make
his highly anticipated debut against the Vikings in Week 4. Minnesota
has allowed 22.33 Fantasy points per game to running backs, third most
in the NFL through three games. However, they have given up no
touchdowns and just 20 Fantasy points total in the last two games
against Chicago and Cleveland. Still, three different backs have topped
13 Fantasy points against them this year and the Browns don't really
have a running back.
• No team has allowed more touchdowns (six) to
the tight end position this year than the Vikings and they are allowing
16.3 points per game to the position, second most in the NFL. In the
last two games alone, both Martellus Bennett
(two) and Jordan Cameron (three) caught
multiple touchdowns against the Vikes and produced 19 and 24 Fantasy
points, respectively. Plug Heath Miller
into your lineups this week!
• Kyle Rudolph has just one game with 50 yards receiving in his last
eight starts and has two scores total during that span. The Steelers
have not allowed a tight end to score against them this year and held Martellus Bennett to 10 yards on two catches.
• Adrian Peterson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry in 2013, down from
6.0 last year. If you take away the first carry of the season, when he
ran for 78 yards and a score against the Lions, Peterson has just 203
yards on his last 68 carries (2.9 yards per carry). The Steelers have
only surrendered 3.5 yards per carry this year, but they have allowed
multiple running back scores in each of the last two games and are
giving up 21 Fantasy points per game to the position, fifth most.
• Cordarrelle Patterson played a career-high 20 snaps in Week 3 and led the
Vikings with 49 yards receiving. He is second in the NFL with a 4.9
yards per route run average and needs more playing time. Put CP on your
waiver wire watch list.
• No wide receiver has reached 55 yards or 10
Fantasy points against the Steelers this year and they have already
played A.J. Green and Brandon Marshall.
Jets at Titans, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
• Geno Smith threw for 331 yards
and had three total touchdowns (two passing) in a 28-point Fantasy day
against the Bills in Week 3. It will be tough to repeat in Week 4
unfortunately as the Titans have not allowed a 300-yard passer this year
and have held two quarterbacks to fewer than 200 yards passing.
•
Only Matt Schaub has thrown for multiple
scores or topped 20 Fantasy points against the Titans this year. Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers
combined for just 24 Fantasy points against Tennessee, who is allowing
an average of 16 Fantasy points per game (12th fewest) on 224 yards
passing per game (10th fewest).
• Bilal Powell is emerging as a star after rushing for 149 yards on 27
carries in the win over the Bills. He has 12 or more Fantasy points in
each of his last two games and will carry the load in Week 4 with Chris Ivory hobbled (again). Powell is currently the 11th ranked
Fantasy running back as we enter Week 4.
• The Titans (100.7) are one
of only nine teams that are allowing over 100 yards rushing per game to
running backs. Opposing running backs have at least 100 yards rushing
(averaging 137 per game) with a score in each of the last two weeks
against the Titans and are averaging 22 Fantasy points per game during
that span.
• Santonio Holmes
received a season-high 10 targets in Week 3 and caught five of them for
154 yards and a touchdown. His targets, catches and yards have increased
in every single game this year.
• Through three weeks, Stephen Hill leads the Jets with 23 targets, 13 catches and 233
receiving yards. His yardage has increased every week this year as well
and he posted a season-best 108 yards and a touchdown on three grabs
against the Bills in Week 3. The Titans have allowed 22-plus points to
wide receivers in two of the first three weeks, but DeAndre Hopkins is the only player to top 10 Fantasy points against
them.
• Chris Johnson is second
in the NFL with 69 carries, but ranks sixth with 256 yards thanks to a
paltry 3.7 yards per carry average (worst among the top 10 rushers). He
does not have a single goal line carry or touchdown this year and has
exactly two receiving yards in two games. He is also the only runner
with 10 red zone carries to be without a score this season.
• The
Jets are allowing a league-low 8.3 Fantasy points per game to opposing
running backs in 2013. No runner has reached 75 yards on the ground
against the Jets this year and Doug Martin
is the only back to score on them. Even with his touchdown, Martin
generated only 10 Fantasy points.
• Kendall Wright has at least six catches in each of the last two games,
totaling 13 for 125 yards and a touchdown during that span.
• Nate Washington had eight catches for 131 yards in Week 3, but had
not topped 50 yards receiving in either of the first two games.
• Kenny Britt did not record a single catch on five targets in Week 3
and has been below 45 yards receiving in nine of his last 10 games. See
ya!
• The Jets are allowing 21.7 Fantasy points per game to the
receiver position this year and at least one receiver has scored 10
Fantasy points against them in every game.
Eagles at Broncos, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Peyton Manning leads the NFL with
1,143 yards passing, 12 passing touchdowns, no interceptions and 115
Fantasy points.
• Wes Welker is
the only receiver in the NFL with a touchdown in all three games.
• Julius Thomas is one of only two tight ends with a touchdown in all
three games (Jimmy Graham).
• Eric Decker
has at least eight catches in back-to-back games and throttled the
Raiders for 133 yards and a touchdown. We know Philly really struggles
with opposing No. 2 receivers and Donnie Avery
beat them up for 141 yards just a week ago.
• Demaryius Thomas has not scored since Week 1 but is a must start against
a Philly defense that has allowed 31 Fantasy points per game to wide
receivers, third most in the NFL.
• Play rock, paper, scissors to
determine which Denver runner to play in Week 4. It is a bit of a
Fantasy mess as Knowshon Moreno (37
snaps and 12 touches), Ronnie Hillman
(25 snaps and 10 touches) and Montee Ball
(17 snaps and 10 touches) all worked extensively in Week 3. I would lean
towards Moreno, Hillman and Ball (who fumbled for the second straight
week) in that order for Week 4 against a Philly team that has allowed
365 total yards, one touchdown and 39 Fantasy points to runners over the
last two weeks.
• Michael Vick
struggled with the brutal Kansas City defense, but should find things
easier against Denver in Week 4. Terrelle Pryor
just scored 21 Fantasy points against the Broncos and Joe Flacco produced 22 against them in Week 1 as well. Every
quarterback who has faced the Broncos has thrown for over 300 yards in
2013 and they are averaging 341.3 per game, third most in the NFL.
• LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with 395 yards rushing through three games. Doug Martin is second with 297! Wow! McCoy is also the No. 1 Fantasy
back with 62 Fantasy points through three games.
• DeSean Jackson was slowed by the Chiefs in Week 3 but should bounce
back against a Denver team that has allowed at least 80 yards receiving
to the opposing No. 1 receiver in every game this year. Opposing No. 1
receivers are averaging 100 yards receiving and 11.7 Fantasy points per
game against Denver this year.
• Opposing tight ends have topped 100
yards receiving in two of the three games against Denver this year, so Brent Celek is a nice "Bye Week Broski" if you are without Jermichael Finley or Greg Olsen.
Redskins at Raiders, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Terrelle Pryor has 20-plus points in three of his four NFL starts. If he is healthy enough to play this week (concussion), he will face a Washington defense that is giving up 356 yards passing (second most), 20 yards rushing and three total touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks (most in the NFL). Every quarterback who has faced Washington has at least 25 points and the 'Skins are giving up 31.7 per game, second most in the NFL.• The Redskins faced one other mobile quarterback and Michael Vick ran for 54 yards and a touchdown in that game back in Week 1.
• Darren McFadden is one of the five runners in the NFL to score 10 Fantasy points in every single game this year. In Week 3 he touched the ball 12 times and was held to nine total yards, but thanks to a touchdown pass and a late touchdown rush, he delivered the goods. It should be much easier sledding against the Redskins, who are allowing 22 Fantasy points per game to running backs, fourth most in the NFL.
• Every opposing starter has scored, topped 132 total yards and scored at least 18 Fantasy points against the 'Skins, who are allowing 176 total yards and a touchdown per game on 5.0 yards per carry.
• Denarius Moore now has a touchdown in three of the four games started by Terrelle Pryor and is coming off of a monster Week 3 that saw him catch six passes for 124 yards and a touchdown. The opposing No. 1 receiver has topped 100 yards with a touchdown in every game against Washington this year while averaging 17 Fantasy points per game. Moore is a great sleeper this week.
• No team allows more receiving yards per game (267), touchdowns per game (1.67) or Fantasy points per game (34.67) to wide receivers than the Redskins. Through three games, five receivers have topped 15 Fantasy points against the 'Skins and six have produced at least 11. So yes, Rod Streater is worth a look this week as well.
• Robert Griffin III has thrown for 320 yards in every game this year, but he still has not have a touchdown pass in the first half of a game in 2013 after failing to throw one against Detroit. Week 3 also marked the first game that RG3 failed to produce 23 Fantasy points. If you don't count the Jags, and I don't, Andrew Luck scored 28 Fantasy points against Oakland in Week 1 and Peyton Manning went for 30 in Week 3, so opposing quarterbacks are averaging 29 points per game versus the Raiders. Even if you count the Jags, quarterbacks are still averaging 24.3 Fantasy points per game against the Raiders in 2013.
• Alfred Morris has been a Top 24 runner in all three games this year and faces an Oakland run defense that just gave up 166 yards rushing on 5.2 yards per carry and a touchdown to the Denver runners in Week 3. With a short week to prepare for the Redskins, look for Alf to run wild.
• Pierre Garcon is second in the NFL with 37 targets, is fourth with 23 catches and seventh with 280 yards receiving. The opposing top target has at least 90 yards receiving in every game against Oakland this year.
• The Raiders have allowed a tight end touchdown in every game this year and Jordan Reed is emerging as the top target at the position for RG3. Reed scored in Week 2 and caught five of his six targets for 50 yards in Week 3.
Cowboys at Chargers, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Tony Romo has 20-plus points in
two of his three games this year and is coming off of a three-touchdown
and 26 Fantasy point effort against the Rams in Week 3. Every
quarterback who has faced the Chargers has produced multiple touchdowns,
346 total yards and at least 29 Fantasy points. No team has allowed more
passing yards (356.7) or Fantasy points per game (32.3) to opposing
quarterbacks than the Chargers. Romo does not have a 300-yard passing
game in 2013, but I believe that changes this week.
• DeMarco Murray ran wild against the Rams in Week 3 as he piled up 175
yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. Murray has two Top 12 finishes in
2013 and should make it three against a San Diego team that has allowed
145 total yards per game to opposing runners. Murray has already topped
125 total yards in two of his games this year. It should be noted that
the Chargers have not allowed a running back to score on them this year
despite facing the Arian Foster/Ben Tate and LeSean McCoy.
• Dez Bryant has 12 touchdown catches in his last 11 games.
• Miles Austin has not scored this year and has topped 50 yards
receiving in just two of his last nine games. He is battling a hamstring
injury and has only five grabs for 53 yards in his last two games
combined.
• If Austin is out this week, Terrance Williams (averaging 8.6 yards per target) is worth a look
against a Chargers team that has allowed 30-plus receiver points in each
of the last two games. The opposing No. 2 receiver has produced 10.5
Fantasy points per game during that span.
• The Chargers allowed
three touchdowns to the tight ends of the Texans in Week 1, but have not
allowed a tight end to score since then. Jason Witten scored twice in Week 1, but has not scored since. The
good news is that Witten has produced more than 60 yards receiving in
six of his last nine games.
• Philip Rivers has thrown for more than 200 yards in only one game this
year and crashed back to earth in Week 3 with 184 yards and one score
against the Titans. With Malcom Floyd
out, Rivers did not have a single wide receiver with more than 35 yards
in Week 3, and that is a big problem. Rivers has thrown for less than
200 yards in five of his last six games dating back to last year and
faces a Dallas pass defense that has improved every week. Despite facing
48 passes from Sam Bradford, they held
him to 240 yards with one score and just 15 Fantasy points in Week 3.
•
Danny Woodhead has 15 catches over the
last two weeks and produced 86 total yards in Week 3. For the second
straight week, he led the Chargers running backs in snaps played and is
a solid PPR flex option. Dallas is allowing seven catches (third most),
49.3 yards (eighth most) and 0.3 touchdowns receiving per week to
running backs. That amounts to 7.0 Fantasy points per week based on
receiving totals alone, which is great news for Woodhead.
• The
Cowboys are allowing just 44.3 yards rushing per game to running backs,
second fewest in the NFL. No running back has rushed for more than 55
yards or scored a rushing touchdown against the Cowboys in 2013 and they
are allowing only 8.67 Fantasy points per game to the position, second
fewest in the NFL. Since Ryan Mathews
is dependent on rushing totals alone and has not scored on the ground
since Week 5 of 2012, you probably want to keep him on the bench.
• Antonio Gates is tops among the 40 most targeted tight ends with a 10.9
yards per target average. He is second only to Jimmy Graham at 15.2 yards per catch and has produced at least 11
Fantasy points in back-to-back games. Dallas is allowing seven catches
(second most) and nearly 70 yards receiving per game to tight ends this
year, so a healthy Antonio should keep on rolling.
Patriots at Falcons, Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Tom Brady does not have a Top 12
finish at the quarterback position nor had he produced 20 Fantasy points
in a game this year. Hopefully he will have Rob Gronkowski and/or Danny Amendola
back this week to end his infamous streak. Atlanta has allowed multiple
touchdowns to every quarterback they have faced this year and two of
them threw for 350 yards and multiple scores. The Falcons are allowing
an average of 315 yards, 2.3 passing touchdowns and 24.3 Fantasy points
to quarterbacks this year, so look for Brady to get it going.
• If
Gronk is back, he will face an Atlanta defense that has allowed two
tight end touchdowns in 2013. It should also be noted that no tight end
-- and that includes Jimmy Graham and Jared Cook -- has produced more than 45 yards receiving against
Atlanta.
• Kenbrell Thompkins
caught two touchdowns in Week 3 and faces an Atlanta pass defense that
has allowed the opposing No. 2 receiver to score in each of the last two
games. For the year, the opposing No. 2 receiver is averaging 10.7
Fantasy points per game against the Falcons, so Thompkins is a solid No.
3 receiver.
• Aaron Dobson has
seen 10 targets in each of the last two games. That volume makes him
worth a look if Danny Amendola is out
once again.
• Three of the league-high five receiver touchdowns
allowed by the Falcons have gone to players lined up in the slot. Julian Edelman has not scored since moving inside with Amendola out,
but he does have 20 catches for 122 yards (yep only 6.1 yards per catch)
over the last two weeks.
• The snap count for the New England runners
in Week 3 was as follows: Stevan Ridley
(27 snaps and 12 touches), LeGarrette Blount
(24 and 14) and Brandon Bolden (26 and
eight, but he had a team-high 100 total yards). Ridley has not scored or
rushed for 65 yards in a game this year and no runner has topped 65
against the Falcons this year, who have given up only one rushing score.
Ridley did not have a single three-game stretch without a touchdown in
2012. Bolden was the pass catching back and is worth watching, because Darren Sproles is the only runner to produce 10 Fantasy points against
the Falcons this year, and he did it thanks to 88 yards receiving.
•
The Patriots are second in the NFL against quarterbacks, allowing just
10.3 Fantasy points per game. They have allowed just two passing
touchdowns (second fewest) on the season and no quarterback has thrown
for more than 236 yards. That will all change this week against Matty
Ice. Ryan enters Week 4 averaging 301.7 yards and two touchdowns passing
per game.
• Jaquizz Rodgers
led the Falcons with 43 snaps played in Week 3 and touched the ball 20
times while producing 93 total yards.
• However, my favorite Fantasy
back in Atlanta right now remains Jason Snelling.
Snelling played 36 snaps in Week 3 and amassed 111 total yards with a
touchdown on 15 total touches. He scored and produced 10-plus Fantasy
points for the second week in a row. Snelling has a solid eight catches
for 99 yards and a touchdown over the last two weeks as well. He
received two of the team's three goal line chances against Miami and is
facing a New England team that has allowed 10 Fantasy points to one
runner in every game this year.
• Neither the injured Roddy White nor the aged Tony Gonzalez
have produced 40 yards receiving in a single game this year. Tight ends
are averaging a league-worst 19 yards and one Fantasy point per game
against the Pats this year.
• Julio Jones is shouldering the load in the passing game. Through
three weeks, he leads the NFL with 27 receptions and 373 yards
receiving, despite getting no help from his bros. He is catching a
ridiculous 77.1 percent of his targets while averaging 10.7 yards and
1.41 Fantasy points per target.
Dolphins at Saints, Mon., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Darren Sproles does not have a
touchdown this year and he did not go three straight games without a
score at any point in 2012. He has produced five and four Fantasy points
in the last two games, respectively. In both 2012 and 2011, Sproles had
only two such games all season. The scary thing to me is that Sproles
averaged 1.5 red zone chances per game in 2012, but has just two total
in three games this year. Miami just allowed a receiving score to Jason Snelling, so hopefully Sproles can get on the board in Week 4.
•
The Dolphins have allowed at least 18 Fantasy points to running backs in
each of the last two weeks, giving up 330 total yards and two scores to
the position during that span. Three runners have at least eight points
against them in the last two weeks and two have produced at least 13
Fantasy points. Pierre Thomas picked up
67 total yards on 17 touches last week against Arizona and is a flex
option if Mark Ingram is banged up
again this week against a softer Miami defense that will be without its
top playmaker, Cameron Wake.
•
Through three games, Lance Moore is tied
for 83rd in the NFL with 11 targets. He has just four catches for 41
yards total and I am not sure what the problem is, but I do know that
Moore's snap count has fallen from 52 of 69 in Week 1 to 47 of 74 in
Week 2 and finally 35 of 76 in Week 3. Kenny Stills has played more snaps than Moore in each of the last two
games.
• Jimmy Graham likes to
post people up in the end zone and score touchdowns. It works really
well and should work again this week against a Miami team that has
allowed a tight end touchdown in every single game this year.
• The
Dolphins have faced the potent passing attacks of Indianapolis and
Atlanta this year, yet they are one of only two teams that have not
allowed a single wide receiver touchdown this season. They have allowed
a 100-yard receiver in each of the last two games, however, so hopefully Marques Colston can get back to double-digit Fantasy points for the
first time since Week 1.
• Ryan Tannehill has been very solid this year but will take on a
Saints team that is allowing just 10.7 Fantasy points per game to
opposing quarterbacks, fourth fewest in the NFL. Over the last two
weeks, the Saints held both Josh Freeman
and Carson Palmer under 200 yards
passing, picked off three passes and allowed just 11 combined Fantasy
points to the quarterback position. I know it sounds like a guaranteed
shootout, but this defense is playing phenomenally well and Tannehill
has yet to produce 20 Fantasy points or finish in the Top 12 at his
position.
• A Miami runner has scored in all three games this year,
with Daniel Thomas scoring both of his
touchdowns at the stripe and monopolizing the goal line carries. Lamar Miller did run one in from 11 yards out in Week 2, but he has
yet to take more than 15 carries in a game or rush for 70 yards. The
Saints have allowed 15.7 Fantasy points per game to opposing runners
this year and are surrendering a league-high 5.1 yards per carry. New
Orleans is giving up an average of 144 total yards per game to the
running back position, so there is upside here. Miller has to score from
deep, but the Saints have already allowed a few big runs this year and
if I had to gamble on a 'Fins runner this week it would be Miller.
•
After a big Week 2, Mike Wallace
disappeared for the second time in three games, catching two passes for
22 yards. The Saints have held Julio Jones
(76 yards and a touchdown for 11 Fantasy points), Vincent Jackson (77 yards and seven Fantasy points) and Larry Fitzgerald (64 yards and six Fantasy points) in check over the
first three weeks. Wallace should perform better than he did in Weeks 1
and 3, but he seems more like the No. 3 receiver I expected him to be
all along.
• Brian Hartline has
scored in two of the three games this year and leads the 'Fins with 29
targets, 18 receptions, 239 yards and the two scores.
• Charles Clay has seen at least six targets and caught at least four
passes for 40 yards in each of the first three games. He had a monster
game in Week 2 with 106 yards receiving against the Colts, but could
struggle against a Saints team that has not allowed a single tight end
to hit 40 yards receiving this year. Tony Gonzalez
did score on the Saints in Week 1, but they are giving up just four
Fantasy points per game to tight ends this year, sixth fewest in the NFL.
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