Every week I will give you facts that you need to know about every matchup in the NFL to help you set your lineup for the highest probability of winning. New Orleans and Oakland are off this week, but we have tons of data to breakdown, so let's get started.
Patriots at Jets, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Despite his late game heroics, the fact remains that Tom Brady has been a Top 12 Fantasy quarterback or produced 20
Fantasy points in just one of his first six games. He threw for 185
yards and a touchdown (13 Fantasy points) in Week 2 against the Jets,
but should fare better this time around. Over the last four games, the
Jets are allowing 271 yards passing, two touchdowns and 23.75 points per
game to quarterbacks. Also, three straight quarterbacks to face the Jets
have quarterback ratings of at least 111.
• Stevan Ridley was back as the main man in the backfield for the
Patriots in Week 6 and it was 2012 all over. He ran 20 times (LeGarrette Blount ran seven) for 96 yards and two touchdowns. It is a
better offense with him on the field and hopefully he will be back to
being the man going forward.
• It will not be easy this week against
the Jets run defense that has not allowed more than 80 yards rushing to
running backs in any single week. Five of the six running back groups to
face the Jets have been held below 3.0 yards per carry and for the year
they are giving up 64 yards per game (second fewest) on a league-low 2.8
yards per carry. Only two rushers all year have reached 10 Fantasy
points against the Jets and both needed a touchdown to do so.
• In
the first meeting, the Patriot backs -- including Ridley (team high 16
carries for 40 yards) -- ran for 52 yards on 21 carries and produced
five total Fantasy points.
• The routes run (out of 54) and target
distribution for the New England receivers in Week 6 was Julian Edelman (25/11), Aaron Dobson
(51/10), Kenbrell Thompkins (44/six)
and Danny Amendola, who was knocked out
of the game (31/two). Remember that Edelman caught 13 passes against the
Jets back in Week 2 with Amendola out.
• An outside receiver has
produced 99 yards or 10-plus points in every game against the Jets this
year. Dobson scored on them in Week 2, while Thompkins has a touchdown
in three of his last four games. Opposing No. 2 receivers have four
touchdowns against the Jets, third most in the NFL.
• Over the last
five weeks, three quarterbacks -- including Geno Smith (three points and three interceptions in Week 2) -- have
been held to single-digit Fantasy points against the Pats. Matt Ryan and
Drew Brees are the only exceptions during that span. New England has an
interception in five straight games, with seven total during the streak.
•
Bilal Powell led the Jets running backs
by playing 33 of the 58 snaps, but took only 12 touches and gained 50
yards against the Steelers. He has 13 or fewer touches in both games
with Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson back in what had turned into a three-piece committee.
Powell is still the leader of the pack and with Goodson out for the year
he will be back as the primary pass catcher, so I would not give up on
him just yet.
• The Patriots have allowed 120 yards rushing with a
touchdown to running backs in both games without Vince Wilfork this year. The Jets ran for 112 yards with a Powell
touchdown back in Week 2.
• Since Week 1, the Patriots have allowed
only one wide receiver touchdown and only Julio Jones has even reached 10 Fantasy points against them.
• Jeff Cumberland has led the Jets in receiving in each of the last
two games and has a touchdown in two of his last three outings as well.
The Patriots have given up at least 60 yards to tight ends in three
straight, averaging 97 yards per game during that span.
Bears at Redskins, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Jay Cutler
are the only quarterbacks with 20-plus Fantasy points in five games this
year. The Redskins held Tony Romo to just 10 Fantasy points in a bizarre
game that featured multiple huge kick returns for Dallas that never let
Romo get it going. For the year, the Skins are still allowing 22.8
Fantasy points (ninth most) to the position on 293 yards (eighth) and
two scores (eighth) per game.
• Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles are the only Fantasy backs with
10-plus points in every game this year. He is also second with four
games of more than 100 total yards. Yes, he will light up the Skins, who
have given up 159 total yards and 21 Fantasy points per game (fourth
most) to backs this year.
• Brandon Marshall will get his, but look for Alshon Jeffery to bounce back in Week 7. The opposing No. 2 receiver
has 100 yards or a touchdown in three straight games against Washington
(yes, I am throwing out the Matt Flynn game) and is averaging 12.3
Fantasy points per game. Washington is still surrendering 25.4 points
per game to receivers -- eighth most -- on 199.6 yards and 1.2 scores
per game.
• Martellus Bennett
should get back to the end zone after a four-week drought against a
Washington defense that has allowed a tight end to score in four of
their five games this year. In his last three games, Bennett has 19
catches for 214 yards, which is 6.3 receptions and 71.3 yards per game.
•
Washington has allowed a defensive or special teams touchdown in each of
the last two games. The have allowed 10-plus Fantasy points to defenses
in three straight and four of five on the year.
• Robert Griffin III looks much healthier and is coming off of a
season-high 77 yards rushing against the Cowboys. He was extremely
inaccurate however and completed just 19 of his 39 throws while missing
some wide open receivers. RG3 has just one passing touchdown in his last
three games and will face a Bears pass defense that is averaging two
quarterback takeaways per game and has only allowed Brees to exceed 20
Fantasy points.
• If Brandon Jacobs could pound the Bears for 106
yards and two touchdowns on 4.8 yards per carry, then I would expect Alfred Morris to do the same. Morris is averaging 5.2 yards per carry
this season, but has not received more than 16 carries in a game and is
averaging 14.4 for the season. That has to change.
• Pierre Garcon is the only receiver to rely on in Washington. He leads
all receivers at 11.8 targets per game and is the only receiver with at
least six receptions in every game. RG3 missed him on some big play
opportunities, but those will come and I would buy low if you can.
Chicago has allowed five scores to opposing No. 1 receivers this year,
second most in the NFL.
• Jordan Reed
has at least five catches, 50 yards or a touchdown in every game this
year. He is the primary pass catching tight end for the Skins and should
only get better as the year goes on. This week could be tough as Chicago
has allowed only one tight end touchdown all year and only two tight
ends (one of which was Jimmy Graham) have reached six Fantasy points
against them.
Chargers at Jaguars, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Philip Rivers had an average
performance on MNF with one touchdown and only 15 Fantasy points
against the Colts. He will bounce back against the Jags, who have given
up 12 passing scores (two-plus in every game) and an average of 28
Fantasy points per game over their last four games.
• Ryan Mathews rushed for a season-high 102 yards against the Colts
and now has 100 total yards in each of his last two full games. Mathews
has at least 16 carries in four straight games and has 10-plus Fantasy
points in 60 percent of his starts this year.
• Danny Woodhead has five catches in five straight games and is
averaging a very solid 78 total yards per game during that run. He is
also the team's red zone back, receiving 19 opportunities inside the 20,
which is more than Mathews (nine) and Ronnie Brown
(eight) combined. He also leads the Charger runners with four goal line
chances as well.
• Both are great starts against the Jags, who are
allowing 120.8 yards per game on the ground (second most) on a
league-high 4.7 yards per carry. The Jags have allowed 100 yards rushing
or a touchdown in every game this year and are allowing one rushing
score and 20.7 Fantasy points per game to the position.
• Keenan Allen has become a star right before our very eyes. I called
him the team's top receiver before Week 6 and his 12-target, nine-catch,
107-yard, and one touchdown performance confirmed it. Over the last
three weeks, Allen has caught 20 of his 27 targets (74.7 percent) for
302 yards (11.4 yards per target) and two scores. He has 100 yards and a
touchdown in each of the last two games.
• The Chargers shut down the
Colts on Monday night and should have similar success against the Jags
in Week 7. Every defense to face the Jags has at least 10 Fantasy points
and five of six have produced at least 15. For the year, defenses are
averaging 19 Fantasy points per game against Jacksonville, second most
in the NFL.
• Chad Henne threw
for over 300 yards in the loss to the Broncos, but failed to find the
end zone and tossed two picks. Prior to blanking Andrew Luck on Monday, every quarterback who had faced San Diego had
produced at least 22 Fantasy points and thrown for multiple touchdowns.
Henne will be chucking it again this week and is an intriguing "Bye Week
Broski."
• Maurice Jones-Drew
is on the comeback trail! He has at least eight Fantasy points in back
to back games and three of the last four. He has a score in two of the
last four games and is coming off of a season best 13 Fantasy points
against the Broncos. It will be tough this week against the Chargers,
who have allowed no running back touchdowns this year while giving up
just 12 Fantasy points per game to the position, third-fewest in the
league.
• Despite facing Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Chris Johnson,
Trent Richardson and DeMarco Murray, no back has scored on the Chargers
this year and only McCoy reached 10 Fantasy points
• I have a
"bromance" brewing with Justin Blackmon,
who will be a Top 10 Fantasy receiver the rest of the way. He has 100
yards receiving in both games this year and led the NFL with 20 targets,
14 catches and 190 yards in Week 6 against the Broncos.
Cowboys at Eagles, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Tony Romo had an off night
against the Redskins in Week 6, but will bounce back against the Eagles
in Week 7. After all, Mike Glennon just threw for 273 yards and two
scores against Philly, as he became the fourth quarterback to hit the
22-point mark against them this year. For the season, the Eagles are
giving up 327.5 yards (third), 2.17 touchdowns (seventh) and 25 Fantasy
points per game to quarterbacks (fourth).
• DeMarco Murray has 10-plus Fantasy points in four of his six games this
year, but if he is unable to go, Joseph Randle
is expected to start. Randle ran 11 times for 17 yards and a touchdown
against the Redskins, while catching two passes for another 15 yards. He
showed good power and vision despite an ugly yards per carry (1.5) which
was due in large part to the fact that he was killing the clock in
obvious run-only situations.
• After a slow start against running
backs (18.5 points per game over the first four), the Eagles held the
backs of New York and Tampa Bay to a 63.5 yards rushing and 10 Fantasy
points per game the last two weeks. If Murray is out, Randle is still a
solid pickup and play at flex, but the Eagles have been better of late.
•
The Eagles have allowed eight receiver touchdowns and 116 Fantasy points
to receivers in their last three games alone. That's an average of 38.7
Fantasy points per game and five receivers have 14-plus points during
that span.
• Terrance Williams
was only targeted twice against the Skins, but caught both for 27 yards
and a touchdown. Over the last three weeks, he has hauled in 13 of his
14 targets for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Send Miles Austin to the bench please!
• The Eagles have not allowed a
tight end to score this year, but Timothy Wright of the Bucs just had
seven catches for 91 yards against them in Week 6.
• All Nick Foles has done in basically six quarters of action is complete
38 of 56 passing (70 percent) for 493 yards (8.8 yards per attempt) and
five touchdowns. He even added a touchdown running against the Bucs last
week, when he produced 35 Fantasy points and was the No. 2 overall
quarterback. If Foles starts, he is a great option for your Fantasy
teams this week and if it is Michael Vick
instead, of course you can roll with him against the Cowboys, who are
giving up 27.67 Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, second most in
the NFL.
• As if you needed another reason to love him, LeSean McCoy leads the NFL with three games of 100 yards rushing and
one game of 100 yards receiving. He is also the first back to score
10-plus Fantasy points on the Buccaneers.
• The Cowboys have allowed
a league-high 14 passing touchdowns this year and six have gone to
secondary receivers, four of which went to slot guys. Riley Cooper is coming off of his best game of the year, with four
catches for 120 yards and a touchdown, but he had just 97 yards in the
first five games combined. Jason Avant
has one game with 14 Fantasy points this year, but has just eight
catches for 61 yards the last three weeks combined.
• DeSean Jackson has four games with 16-plus Fantasy points this year,
most in the NFL. Two of them have come in the last two games with Foles
at the command. In six quarters, Foles has targeted Jackson 13 times and
they have connected on 11 of them for 134 yards and three touchdowns,
including two against the tough Tampa Bay pass defense.
Bengals at Lions, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Andy Dalton came alive in Week
6 with his first 20-point Fantasy game of the year. He threw for 337
yards and three scores en route to a 30-point Fantasy day against the
Bills. The Lions have allowed multiple touchdowns and 20 Fantasy points
in two of their last three games (Jay Cutler and Brandon Weeden) and are
allowing 302 yards passing per game over their last four. No quarterback
has yet to reach 21 Fantasy points against the Lions in 2013, but Dalton
is a streaky quarterback. He had seven games with 25 or more Fantasy
points in 2012, six of those seven came in two separate three game
streaks, so he is a starting option for those of you without Drew Brees.
•
In Week 6 Giovanni Bernard out-snapped BenJarvus Green-Ellis 50 to 37. Gio took a career-high 21 touches and had
100 total yards and a touchdown against the Bills. He had six catches
for 72 yards and a score in his most prolific day as a pass catcher this
year. The Law Firm took a solid 18 carries for 86 yards and has 37
carries over the last two weeks.
• Running backs have scored eight
times against the Lions -- second most in the NFL -- and a running back
has at least 13 Fantasy points in five of the six games against them
this season. Just last week, the Browns pass catching back, Chris Ogbonnaya, scored 14 Fantasy points thanks in large part to
seven catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.
• Eight receivers have
already scored 10-plus points against the Lions this year and an outside
receiver has topped 100 yards in three straight games with a touchdown
in two of them. A.J. Green had a major
bounce back in Week 6 with 103 yards and a touchdown of his own.
•
Receivers have at least 25 Fantasy points in three straight games
against the Lions and the opposing No. 2 receiver has scored in all
three of those games. Marvin Jones has
a score in two of his last four games, but remains risky until he runs
more than 19 of the team's 48 routes like he did last week. Jones is
outplaying Sanu, but until the playing time reflects it, he is not a
prudent start.
• The Lions have not allowed a tight end touchdown and Tyler Eifert/Jermaine Gresham still
do not have a score on 59 combined targets.
• Matthew Stafford erupted with four touchdowns against the Browns and
takes on a Bengals team that has allowed 20-plus Fantasy points to
quarterbacks in their last two road games against Brian Hoyer and Thad
Lewis. The Bengals have not allowed a 300-yard passer in an NFL-best 20
straight games, but that could change this week.
• Cincinnati has
allowed 21 receptions, 114 yards and a touchdown for 17 Fantasy points
to running backs on receiving totals alone the last three weeks. Reggie Bush just trashed the Browns for 135 total yards (57 receiving)
and a touchdown in Week 6. Cincinnati has not allowed a running back
rushing touchdown in three straight games.
• Kris Durham has seen his targets increase in three straight games
and caught a season-best eight passes for 83 yards on 13 targets. He has
21 targets and is averaging 8.5 Fantasy points per game the last two
weeks.
• Joseph Fauria put
himself on the map with a three-touchdown game against the Browns in
Week 6. He caught all three of his targets for 34 yards and the three
touchdowns. For the year, Fauria has scored on five of his nine targets
and seven catches, which is insane. He is a red zone specialist (four of
his five touchdowns have come from inside the red zone and the other was
23 yards) who ran only 14 of his team's 48 routes last week. He had not
even played 14 snaps in a game prior to Week 6 so it is a great story,
but he is tough to count on.
Rams at Panthers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Sam Bradford tossed three
touchdowns for the second straight game in Week 6 and now has three such
games on the year, tied for second in the NFL behind only Peyton
Manning. He also has a shocking four games of 20-plus points this year
despite throwing for less than 250 yards in four straight. He is
unlikely to make it five games with 20 against the Panthers, who have
not allowed multiple passing touchdowns or 17 Fantasy points to a
quarterback all year. They are No. 1 in terms of Fantasy points allowed
to quarterbacks at just 10.2 per game.
• Zac Stacy is the main man for the Rams and played 38 of the team's
47 snaps, while no other runner played more than five. He ran 18 times
for 79 yards and caught two passes for 11 yards. He has more than 75
total yards in back-to-back games and will likely become the first Rams
runner to hit 10-points in a game this year. It might be tough against
the Panthers, who have allowed only one running back group to 100 yards
this year and are giving up just 69 yards rushing over their last three
games. At home against the Giants and Seahawks, Carolina has allowed
just 106 yards rushing total in two games and just 8.5 points per game
to running backs.
• Did you know? The Rams are the only team in the
NFL without a rushing touchdown this year.
• Do not trust any of the
Rams wide receivers against Carolina. No receiver has produced even six
Fantasy points in three straight games against them and the entire
position is averaging 7.3 points per game during that span.
• Tavon Austin played only four snaps in Week 6.
• Lance Kendricks has scored in three straight games, but has only 45
yards receiving total in those games. He has also played more snaps that Jared Cook in each of the last two games and Cook has not scored or
produced 50 yards in a game since Week 1. The Panthers have allowed a
tight end to score in each of the last two games.
• The Rams have
allowed multiple passing touchdowns in five of their first six games --
including two of the last three -- but none of the last three
quarterbacks to face them have produced 20 Fantasy points.
• Cam Newton was the No. 1 Fantasy point scorer in Week 6, as he
threw for 242 yards with three touchdowns and added 30 yards and a score
on the ground for 36 points. Three quarterbacks have topped 21 points
against St. Louis this year and Cam will try to keep his momentum going.
•
DeAngelo Williams has 85-plus total
yards in four of his five games this year and produced 117 last week,
thanks to a season-high 53 yards receiving. He does not have a touchdown
on the year, however, and is totally yardage depended for his
production. The good news is that the Rams are giving up a league-high
127 yards rushing (on 4.7 yards per carry) and a league-high 171 total
yards to running backs. Jonathan Stewart
is eligible to return this week, so keep an eye on his utilization
relative to DeAngelo if he is in fact ready to play.
• The Rams are
also allowing a rushing touchdown to a back each week and 22.7 Fantasy
points per game -- second most in the NFL -- so even Mike Tolbert can be worth a look as a deep flex. Tolbert scored
twice last week and has three scores on the season and eight in his last
eight games dating back to last year.
• The opposing No. 1 receiver
has a touchdown in five of the six games against the Rams this year with
Andre Johnson (seven catches for 88 yards) being the lone exception. Steve Smith is still looking to get over 61 yards for the first time
this year and hopefully will score for the second straight week against
the Rams, who have allowed at least 88 yards to the No. 1 in three
straight games.
• Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell have five touchdown catches between them in the last
four games. They each have a touchdown in two of the four games, but the
problem is that when they don't score, they average 4.5 and 2.5 Fantasy
points per game, respectively.
Buccaneers at Falcons, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Mike Glennon produced 22
Fantasy points against the Eagles and believe it or not, he could have
similar success against the Falcons as a two-quarterback league sleeper
again this week. Every quarterback to face Atlanta this year has thrown
multiple touchdowns and four of them have produced at least 24 Fantasy
points. No quarterback has been held below 17 and Atlanta is allowing
292 yards, a league-high 2.4 passing touchdowns and 24.8 Fantasy points
(fifth most) per game to the position.
• Doug Martin has not scored since Week 1 and is averaging just 3.5
yards per carry in 2013, down 1.1 yards from his 4.6 yards per carry
average in 2012. The Falcons have allowed 100 yards rushing to backs in
just one game this year, but over the last three weeks they are giving
up 101.3 yards per game and more importantly, they are allowing 5.2
yards per carry.
• Vincent Jackson
ended his touchdown drought in a big way with nine catches for 114 yards
and two scores against the Eagles in Week 6. Atlanta has allowed a wide
receiver score in every game this year and is providing 27.4 Fantasy
points per game to the position, fifth most.
• If Mike Williams is back, he is worth a look too. Williams scored in
his only start with Glennon and the Falcons have allowed four scores to
opposing No. 2 receivers in five games.
• File away the name Timothy Wright of the Bucs, the converted receiver is playing tight end
in Tampa and caught seven of his nine targets for 91 yards in Week 6. He
has 12 catches for 132 yards the last two weeks and is playing over half
of the snaps since Glennon took over. Atlanta has allowed a tight end to
score in three straight games and four of five this year. Tight ends are
scoring 11 Fantasy points per game against the Falcons, seventh most in
the NFL.
• Matt Ryan will not
have Julio Jones (580 yards receiving
in five games) and could be without Roddy White
this week. Nick Foles owned the Bucs
for 35 points last week, but he is the only quarterback to Top 20 points
against them this year. With Roddy I am ok with Ryan, but without him,
it will be tough.
• Steven Jackson
is expected back this week and will hope to build on what LeSean McCoy did to Tampa in Week 6 when he rushed for 116 yards and
171 total. McCoy is the first back to reach 10 Fantasy points against
the Bucs, who have not allowed a single running back touchdown all
season. Jackson had 122 total yards in his only full game this year and
then scored on the first series before leaving in Week 2. The Falcons
did have three running back scores against the tough Jets in Week 5.
•
Harry Douglas will be counted on in a
major way without Julio Jones. He has
been targeted six or more times in 15 career games. He has two
touchdowns, one game with 100 yards and only two games with 10 or more
Fantasy points during that span. Douglas has been called upon to start
in the past and has never really delivered, so yes he is worth a grab
off the wire, but history suggests he won't come anywhere close to being
an every week play.
• Tony Gonzalez
has been targeted 14 times in each of the last two games and has caught
22 passes for 246 yards and two scores. He will have to carry a heavy
load with Jones out despite the fact that the middle of the field might
not be as open as it used to be. No tight end has scored or reached 35
yards against the Bucs in three straight, but Gonzo will get every
opportunity to do both a La Jimmy Graham
who had 10 catches for 179 yards and a score against the Bucs back in
Week 2.
Bills at Dolphins, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Fred Jackson was held below 10
points for the first time this year in Week 6. He played 38 snaps and
took 14 touches for 48 yards.
• C.J. Spiller played only 19 of the team's 70 snaps in Week 6 and ran
10 times for 55 yards to go with two catches for 11 yards. He needs to
be out there more to have any kind of a shot and hopefully by next week
they deem him healthy enough to take a fuller workload. The
under-utilization of Spiller, who is averaging a solid 4.2 yards per
carry for the year, is brutal.
• The Dolphins have allowed a back to
score on them in four straight games and have given up at least 18
Fantasy points to the position in each game. During that span, backs are
averaging 105 yards and one touchdown rushing plus 70 yards and 0.5
touchdowns as pass catchers. It all adds up to 24.5 Fantasy points per
game, so both Buffalo backs are back as No. 2 running back/flex options
again this week.
• The Dolphins have not allowed a wide receiver to
score all year and the Buffalo quarterback situation is shaky, so the
receivers are not worth trusting right now.
• Scott Chandler has a touchdown in two of his last four games and has
at least 40 yards receiving in three of them. A tight end has scored
against Miami in four of the five games this year and they have allowed
a league-high six for the year, despite already having their bye week.
Chandler -- who has two games of 10-plus points in his last four --
could do well as a sleeper against a Miami team that has allowed three
10-plus point games to the position and 14.2 per game this year (second
most in the NFL).
• The Bills have given up multiple passing
touchdowns in five of their six games this year and have allowed 300
yards and two scores in three of the last four games. Andy Dalton posted
his first 20-point game of the year against Buffalo in Week 6 and Ryan Tannehill will look to do the same.
• Despite his lack of
production in Week 5 against the Ravens, Lamar Miller played 45 of the team's 59 snaps, which was by far his
largest percentage of the year. Now he will face a Buffalo team that is
allowing 126.8 yards rushing and 17.2 Fantasy points per game to running
backs this year, excluding the Baltimore debacle (nine carries), so he
should get back on track.
• The Bills have allowed 10 touchdowns to
receivers this year, second most in the NFL. A receiver has scored in
every game against Buffalo and the Bills are allowing 227 yards (second
most), 1.7 touchdowns (second) and 32 Fantasy points (you guessed it,
also second) per game to the position. Five receiver groups have
produced at least 24 points against Buffalo and four have produced 34 or
more. That's pretty scary when you consider Buffalo has faced the
juggernauts of New England, Carolina, the Jets, Ravens, Browns and
Bengals this year.
• No team has allowed more touchdowns to opposing
No. 2 receivers than the Bills (six) this year, so Brian Hartline is a solid gamble as your No. 3 receiver.
• Mike Wallace has two games over 100 yards receiving and three under
25 since joining the 'Fins. I'll take my chances this week against the
Bills.
• Charles Clay has been
a monster this year, but the Bills will be his toughest test. The Bills
have allowed only one tight end touchdown this year, held Jordan Cameron
to his worst game and only Greg Olsen has eclipsed three Fantasy points
against them. For the year, Buffalo has allowed 36 yards and four
Fantasy points per game to tight ends, both second-fewest in the NFL.
•
Finally, Matt Flynn or Jeff Tuel may start for the Bills and if they do, stream the 'Fins
this week!
49ers at Titans, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
• Colin Kaepernick had his best
game throwing the ball since Week 1 as he completed 16 of his 29 passes
for 252 yards and two touchdowns last time out. It was his first game of
200 yards passing or multiple scores since Week 1, but he still fell
short of 20 Fantasy points for the fifth straight game. Only one
quarterback has scored 20 against the Titans this year and they are
giving up 13.3 Fantasy points per game, fifth fewest in the league. The
Titans have not allowed a passing score in two straight games and have
given up just two in the last four games. 'Kap still has just one game
all year with more than 22 rushing yards and has not reached 20 yards on
the ground in three straight.
• Frank Gore has at least 80 yards rushing and 10-plus Fantasy points
in four straight games. He is averaging 13.75 points per game during
that span and became the first back to rush for 100 yards against the
Cards in Week 6. Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch both topped 130 total
yards with a touchdown against the Titans in each of the last two weeks.
•
Kendall Hunter is currently tied for
sixth in the NFL with three rushing touchdowns. He is a must have if you
have Gore on your roster and would be a stud in the event of an injury.
•
If you take out Week 1, Anquan Boldin is
averaging 3.2 catches, 42.6 yards, 0.2 touchdowns and 5.0 Fantasy points
per game. He had more Fantasy points in Week 1 then he has had in the
last five games combined.
• The Titans have not allowed a receiver to
score in four straight games and are allowing just 10.25 points per game
to the position during that span. For the year, the Titans have given up
only 14.7 points per game to receivers, second fewest in the NFL.
• Vernon Davis is a monster. As I wrote in the offseason, he is the only
tight end in the league that can challenge Jimmy Graham, and he has done just that. Davis had a massive game
with eight catches for 180 yards and two scores in Week 6 and now has
80-plus yards in five of his last seven games, with three 100-yard
efforts and seven scores during that run.
• With Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the Titans, opposing Fantasy
defenses are averaging three sacks, 2.5 turnovers and 18 Fantasy points
per game.
• The only player on the Titans I have any confidence about
(especially in a PPR league) is Kendall Wright.
Wright has caught at least five passes in five straight games and is a
good PPR sleeper in Week 7. He has at least 10 PPR points in each of
those games and is averaging 13 points per game in that format during
that run, including five catches for 69 yards against the Seahawks last
week.
• Chris Johnson ran 69
times for 256 yards in the first three games of the year. In the last
three games, he has 37 carries for 71 yards total. Buy him for a penny
and maybe he comes through after his bye week when he has a great
schedule, including Jacksonville in Week 16.
Browns at Packers, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Four of the five quarterbacks to face the Packers have thrown for
multiple touchdowns this year and a Megatron-less Matthew Stafford was
the only exception. Brandon Weeden
threw for two scores against a tough Lions defense and is a solid "Bye
Week Broski" considering that no quarterback has been below 16 Fantasy
points against Green Bay this year.
• Joe Flacco just threw for 342
yards and two scores (23 Fantasy points) and had his second 20-point
Fantasy day of the year (first since Week 1) against the Pack.
Quarterbacks are averaging 314.2 yards (sixth most), 2.2 touchdowns and
23.6 Fantasy points per game (seventh most).
• Believe it or not, the
Browns have had a running back with 10 Fantasy points in three straight
games. Twice, it has been Chris Ogbonnaya,
who has 12 catches for 82 yards and two scores in his last two full
games. Once it was Willis McGahee, who
ran for 72 yards and a score against the Bills in Week 5.
• McGahee
is only averaging 51.7 yards per game in his three starts with the
Browns and has just one catch for two yards. The Packers have allowed
just 54 yards rushing and nine total Fantasy points per game to Detroit
and Baltimore the last two weeks. Neither Ray Rice nor Reggie Bush even
topped six Fantasy points in those two.
• Josh Gordon is averaging 6.25 catches, 107.25 yards and 0.5
touchdowns per game. He has three games of 10-plus Fantasy points and
should feast on the Packers. Green Bay has allowed four touchdowns to
opposing No. 1 receivers, who are averaging 13.2 Fantasy points against
them this year. At least one receiver has nine Fantasy points in every
game against Green Bay.
• After a fast start, Jordan Cameron has been held without a touchdown and to just 100 yards
on eight catches the last two weeks. Green Bay has allowed at least nine
Fantasy points to tight ends in four of their five games this year,
including 195 yards, one touchdown and 25 Fantasy points the last two
weeks alone from Dallas Clark, Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler.
•
Aaron Rodgers has 20 Fantasy points in
only two of his five games this year and may be without both James Jones and Randall Cobb due to
injury.Hopefully he can do what Stafford did in Week 6 and toss multiple
touchdowns against the Browns. Prior to Week 6, the Browns had allowed
only two passing scores in their first five games, but they did allow
four last week. Only two quarterbacks -- Stafford and Christian Ponder
-- have exceeded 14 Fantasy points against the Browns this year, and
Ponder needed two rushing scores to do it.
• Eddie Lacy is the bell cow for the Packers, taking 23 carries in each
of the last two games and rushing for 219 yards. He rushed for 120
against the stout Ravens and should do well against a Cleveland defense
that has given up 253 yards rushing, four total touchdowns and 59
Fantasy points to running backs the last two weeks alone. The Browns
have allowed a league-high six running back rushing scores this year and
Bush scored on them as a pass catcher in Week 6.
• Jordy Nelson has at least eight Fantasy points in every game this
year and has produced 17 Fantasy points three times. He is averaging an
excellent 12 yards per target and has a tough matchup with a Browns
secondary that has not allowed a receiver score in four straight games.
With Cobb and Jones banged up, he will likely draw Joe Haden, but Nelson is too hot to sit.
• Jarrett Boykin stepped in for Cobb and saw six targets last week,
catching one for 43 yards.
• Jermichael Finley will be heavily utilized against a Browns team that just
gave up three touchdowns to Joseph Fauria. Finley has seen six or more
targets in all four of his full games and has two touchdowns on the
year. He has at least seven Fantasy points in three of his four games
and should be heavily involved once the Green Bay staff identifies the
mismatches that were exploited by Detroit's tight ends in Week 6.
•
Opposing defenses have at least 10 Fantasy points in every game started
by Weeden and are averaging 15 points per game.
Ravens at Steelers, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Send Joe Flacco back to the
scrap heap this week against the Steelers, who have been lock down on
Fantasy quarterbacks. Pittsburgh is giving up 202 yards (second fewest),
0.8 touchdowns (league-low) and 12 Fantasy points per game (third
fewest) to quarterbacks this year. Flacco has multiple touchdown passes
in only two career games against the Steelers in 12 tries. He did not
reach 200 yards against them in 2012.
• Ray Rice is averaging a career-low 2.8 yards per carry and a
career-low 4.3 yards per catch in 2013. He has just one game with more
than 40 yards rushing this season, but has scored in four of his last
five meetings with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has given up at least 90
rushing yards in four games this year and at least 100 total running
back yards in all five. The Steelers have given up two running back
scores in three of their last four games and Rice will need to score to
get back on track.
• Torrey Smith
had at least 85 yards receiving in the first five games before laying an
egg (one catch for 12 yards) in Week 6. No opposing No. 1 receiver has
scored against the Steelers this year and they held A.J. Green and
Brandon Marshall to 93 combined yards this year. Smith has three games
with three or fewer Fantasy points in four starts against the Steelers,
so while he is the only show in town, he has some risk.
• Dallas Clark responded from his Week 5 goose egg with four catches for
81 yards and his first touchdown of the year in Week 6. The Steelers
have not allowed a tight end to score this year and not tight end has
reached 70 yards or seven Fantasy points.
• Five defenses and three
straight have 10-plus Fantasy points against the Ravens, who have just
two or fewer offensive touchdowns in five straight games. Over the last
three weeks the Bills, Dolphins and Packers defenses averaged 14.3
Fantasy points per game.
• Since Peyton Manning shredded the Ravens
in Week 1, no quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns against them
and the last five -- including Aaron Rodgers -- are averaging just 11.2
points per game. The only hope for Ben Roethlisberger is that both Rodgers and Ryan Tannehill have
topped 300 yards passing with one score and produced 18 Fantasy points
in each of the last two games.
• Le'Veon Bell struggled as expected against the tough Jets, rushing for
34 yards on 16 carries. He does have more than 20 yards receiving in
both starts this year and will find it a little easier against the
Ravens, who just gave up 120 yards to Eddie Lacy on 23 carries. Still,
Baltimore has allowed only one running back score all year and only two
backs over 60 yards rushing.
• Antonio Brown has at least 11 targets, nine catches and 86 yards
receiving in three straight games. Interestingly enough, he has never
scored on the Ravens, but the opposing No. 1 receiver has 100-plus yards
in each of the last two games against Baltimore.
• Receivers have at
least 219 yards and 23 Fantasy points in each the last two weeks against
the Ravens. Believe it or not, Emmanuel Sanders
has at least eight targets in four games and is averaging 8.8 per game.
Unfortunately, he has just one touchdown (last week) and is averaging 60
yards per game.
• Heath Miller
has 12 catches for 154 yards in his two full games, with six catches and
at least 70 yards in each game. Miller had 94 yards and a score in his
last meeting with Baltimore and gets a 2013 team that has struggled with
his position. Four tight ends have at least seven Fantasy points against
the Ravens, who are giving up 70 yards and nine points per game to the
position.
Texans at Chiefs, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• Arian Foster is the only bright
spot in Houston right now and he has at least 118 total yards in three
straight games. Over the last three weeks, Foster has run for 341 yards
and added 14 catches for 146 yards, which adds up to an impressive 487
total yards. He is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 10.1 yards per
catch during the last three.
• Foster only has one rushing touchdown
in six games this year and has never had a six-game stretch with only
one rushing score since coming into the league, and that includes 2009,
when he didn't even take a carry in two of the games.
• Foster is
still in the Top 10 in both red zone (17 -- ninth) and goal line (six --
ninth) opportunities. He has just failed to convert at his usually elite
level and that is likely a product of the team's overall offensive woes.
•
Andre Johnson has one touchdown grab in
his last 14 games. He is tied for 61st in the NFL with three red zone
targets, despite being second in the league with 65 targets overall. Dez
Bryant and Denarius Moore are the only opposing No. 1 receivers to score
on the Chiefs this year.
• DeAndre Hopkins has seven catches for 97 yards total in his last three
games. Kansas City has allowed 20-plus Fantasy points and one receiver
touchdown in four of their last five games, but it is tough to trust a
Texans receiver given the uncertainty they will have at quarterback
against the No. 1 defense in the NFL.
• Garrett Graham had an inauspicious debut with two catches for 25 yards
on three targets in the loss to the Rams. It will not get any easier
against the Chiefs this week, who are allowing a league-low 2.0 Fantasy
points per game to tight ends. No tight end has scored or reached 45
yards against the Chiefs all season.
• Alex Smith has not thrown a touchdown pass in three of his last four
games and is not a recommended play against the Texans. Houston is
allowing a league-low 144 yards passing per game and while Sam Bradford
did throw three touchdowns last week, the Texans have allowed just four
total in their last four games.
• Jamaal Charles is the only back in the NFL with 100 total yards and a
touchdown in every game. He has been a Top 12 Fantasy back in all six
games and a Top 6 back five times. He leads all running backs in red
zone chances and touchdowns with 31 and seven. He leads all running
backs in goal line chances and touchdowns with 12 and six, respectively.
Yes, the Andy Reid offense suits him very, very well.
• Dwayne Bowe still does not have 60 yards receiving in a game this year
and he is not getting the chances he used to receive. For the year, Bowe
is averaging 5.7 targets per game, 63rd among all receivers. The Texans
have allowed 10 or fewer Fantasy points to the opposing receivers as a
group in four straight games.
• The Chiefs defense is the top-ranked
Fantasy unit this year and faces a Texans team that has thrown a pick
six in five straight games and has provided seven defensive or special
teams touchdowns to the opposition during that span. Four straight
defenses have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against the Texans, who
are producing an average of 18.8 points per game for the opposition.
Broncos at Colts, Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Peyton Manning wants to throw 100
touchdowns in this game and then feed the game ball to his ungrateful
former owner Jim Irsay, who opened his mouth a little too often leading
to this Sunday night showdown in the house that Peyton built.
• Did
you know that Knowshon Moreno leads the
NFL with seven rushing touchdowns this year? He does and has scored 10
or more Fantasy points in nine of his last 11 games, which is also
impressive. He has at least 90 total yards and a touchdown in three
straight games and four of his last five, so yes, Moreno has developed
into a legit No. 1 runner. A running back has not scored in three
straight against the Colts, but they have 100 yards rushing in each of
the last two games.
• Wes Welker
leads the NFL with eight receiving touchdowns and amazingly all eight of
them have come in the red zone. He has more red zone touchdowns than any
running back and all but six quarterbacks!
• Demaryius Thomas has not scored in four of the six games this year and
has been held below 10 Fantasy points in all four, including each of the
last two games. The opposing No. 1 receiver on the outside has scored in
four of six against the Colts this year, so hopefully he will get back
into the end zone this week.
• Julius Thomas leads all tight ends with seven total touchdowns and
five red zone touchdowns. He has scored in five of the first seven games
and is tied for the position lead with five Top 12 finishes.
• After
being held without a touchdown on Monday, Andrew Luck should rebound nicely against the Broncos. Denver gives up
a league-high 355 yards passing per game and four quarterbacks have
already produced 21-plus Fantasy points against them.
• Trent Richardson averaged 4.0 yards per carry last week for the first
time all year! Hooray! He managed just 40 yards against the Chargers and
is still seeking his first 60-yard game of the year. That could be tough
against the Broncos, who allow a league-low 55.3 yards rushing per game
on just 2.9 yards per carry. The good news is that a running back has
scored a rushing touchdown in every single game against the Broncos this
year. Even Maurice Jones-Drew had a score and a season-high 13 Fantasy
points against the Broncos last week, so maybe first-round Trent can hit
10 Fantasy points this week.
• Denver is giving up 229 yards (the
most), 1.2 touchdowns (10th most) and 29 Fantasy points per game (third
most) to wide receivers this year. Denver has also allowed three
receivers to exceed 100 yards with a score and a fourth to catch 14
passes for 190 yards in the last four games alone. All four of them went
for at least 18 Fantasy points. For the year, eight receivers have
produced 10 Fantasy points against Denver and 10 have at least nine
points.
• Reggie Wayne is
currently averaging 9.0 yards per target in 2013, his best number since
2007! The problem is that his targets have dropped from 12.2 per game
last year to 8.5 per game this year.
• T.Y. Hilton now has one game with 26 Fantasy points, one game with
12 and four others with a combined 11 Fantasy points. Two of his off
games saw him receive at least eight targets, so that has not been the
ultimate issue here. He is the classic boom or bust option and worth the
roll of the dice against the Broncos this week.
• Denver has allowed
at least 10 Fantasy points to the tight end position in all four games
against teams that feature a pass catching tight end. The only
exceptions were the Raiders and Jaguars, and I would challenge you to
name their starting tight ends. Coby Fleener
has two games with 10-plus Fantasy points in his last five and will need
to make in three out of six if the Colts are going to keep up with
Denver.
Vikings at Giants, Mon., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Josh Freeman is now the fourth
quarterback in NFL history to start for two different teams in the same
season. He has a great matchup with the Giants, who are giving up 25.7
points per game to quarterbacks, second most in the NFL. Every
quarterback who has faced the Giants has thrown multiple passing
touchdowns and has produced at least 20 Fantasy points. Tough to trust
in his debut, but Freeman can still sling it.
• The Giants are also
allowing 23 Fantasy points per game to receivers and four of the last
five receiver groups (Kansas City, which doesn't throw to the receivers
were the exception) have a touchdown and at least 22 Fantasy points.
•
Jerome Simpson is averaging a team-high
9.5 yards per target and his vertical game should benefit from the
arrival of Freeman. Keep an eye on his utilization in this game because
Freeman led both Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to very productive
seasons in 2012.
• Greg Jennings
is also averaging a solid 8.7 yards per target and a team-high 1.23
Fantasy points per target. Freeman should benefit Jennings as well and
the move to Freeman could help resurrect his 2013 season that has been
horrendous outside of the London game.
• Kyle Rudolph had his best game of the year with nine catches for 91
yards and a touchdown in Week 6. Five of the catches, including the
touchdown, came in the fourth quarter of the blowout loss, but Rudolph
could also benefit from the switch to Freeman. In 2010 and 2011, Freeman
targeted his tight end Kellen Winslow an average of 108.5 times and they
connected for an average of 70.5 receptions, 746.5 yards and 3.5
touchdowns per year. Rudolph will get the touchdowns, but a boost in
utilization between the 20s could make him a weekly No. 1 tight end
again. It should also help that the Giants have given up at least 60
yards receiving to the opposing starting tight end in three straight
games along with an average of nearly 12 Fantasy points per game during
that run.
• Quarterbacks are averaging 319 yards (fourth most), a
league-high 2.4 touchdowns and 24 Fantasy points per game (sixth most)
against Minnesota. Cam Newton cured his turnover blues against this
defense, which has allowed 23 Fantasy points to four of the five
quarterbacks they have faced and it could do wonders -- especially with
a banged up Harrison Smith -- for Eli Manning.
• Brandon Jacobs
ran like a man possessed with 106 yards and two scores on 22 carries
against the Bears last week. The Vikings are allowing a league-high 23
Fantasy points per game to running backs this year, so he is worth a
look again. Keep in mind, however, that 14 of the 23 come from rushing
totals alone and the other nine come from the league-high 77.4 yards and
0.4 touchdowns receiving per game they give to backs. Jacobs is not
getting any of those points this week, but the Vikes have allowed three
running back rushing scores in their last two games, which is nice.
• Hakeem Nicks has at least 70 yards receiving in four games this year
-- with two of 100-plus -- but is looking for his first touchdown of the
year.
• Rueben Randle has
scored in back-to-back games and now has 10-plus Fantasy points in three
of his six starts this season.
• Victor Cruz is fourth among all receivers with 541 yards receiving,
but has had three big games (average of 20.3 points per game) and three
duds (12 Fantasy points total).
• All three are solid options this
week against a Vikings secondary that is giving up 25.6 points per game,
seventh most in the NFL. They have allowed five receiver scores in the
last four games and at least one receiver has produced 16 Fantasy points
in each of those four. At least two receivers have produced eight
Fantasy points in each of the last two games, so this should be a
productive game for the Giants trio.
Seahawks at Cardinals, Thu., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Russell Wilson has at least 60
yards rushing in three straight games, totaling 240 yards on the ground
during that span. He is sixth in the NFL in rushing over the last three
weeks and will take on a Cardinals defense that has allowed four
quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns.
• Frank Gore became
the first back to rush for 100 yards on the Cardinals all year and
Kendall Hunter became the first back to score on them as well in Week 6. Marshawn Lynch is coming off of his best game of the year, with 155
total yards and two scores against Tennessee.
• Calvin Johnson
remains the only receiver to reach 10 Fantasy points against the
Cardinals all year. No, I do not trust any Seattle receiver to reach
that plateau this week.
• Too bad the Seahawks don't have a legit
Fantasy tight end. Three tight ends have already gone for more than 130
yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals, who are allowing 108
yards receiving and 15.7 points per game to the position, both league
highs.
• The opposing defense has produced 10-plus Fantasy points in
every game against Arizona this year and is averaging 15 per game over
the last four weeks.
• Andre Ellington
has more than 11 touches and 80 total yards in each of the last two
games. He had a career-high 12 touches, 92 total yards and a touchdown
against the tough 49ers in Week 6. If you need a bye week flex --
especially in a PPR (he has nine catches the last two games) --
Ellington is the only back in Arizona I'd consider.
• Larry Fitzgerald had five catches for 65 yards on 22 total targets in
his two games against Seattle last year. He did come through in a very
unfavorable matchup against the 49ers last week, catching six passes for
a season-high 117 yards and a touchdown. In the three games in which
Fitz has received more than six targets, he has scored in every one and
is averaging 16.3 Fantasy points per game. Hey Carson Palmer, throw Fitz the ball.
• Michael Floyd scored his first touchdown of the year in Week 6 and
enters Week 7 with at least five receptions in three straight games.
•
Seattle has allowed the third fewest receiving yards (132) and fifth
fewest touchdowns (0.5) per game to receivers this year.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Nathan at @nathanzegura .
