2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds, predictions, favorites: Bets from elite expert who had $1,045 win last year

The 2026 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be one of the most wide-open derbies in recent memory. The 152nd Run for the Roses will take place at Chirchhill Downs, in Louisville, KY, on Saturday, May, 2. All eyes are on Arkansas Derby winner Renegade, who is looking to make history as the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post position since Ferdinand in 1986. Right behind him, with 6-1 odds at the Kentucky Derby 2026, is Blue Grass Stakes romper Further Ado and Florida Derby Champion Commandment. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what's available to the general public:

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott's Chief Wallabee (8-1) and Tampa Bay Derby winner The Puma (10-1) round out the top five on the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds board in the full 20-horse 2026 Kentucky Derby field. Post time for the Kentucky Derby 2026 is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Gene Menez.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. In last year's Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout. Anyone who has followed his horse racing betting advice could be way up.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them. Sign up for FanDuel Racing, where new users get $25 in bonuses with a $5 bet:

Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions

One of Menez's surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading the favorite, Renegade. Renegade won the 2026 Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn Park, covering 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.7, and before that won the 2026 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. If we take a closer look at the 2026 Kentucky Derby odds and his full resumé, the red flags start to pile up. Before those two wins, Renegade had finished second twice, including a runner-up effort in the 2025 Remsen at Aqueduct in December. He is a late-running closer, something tough to do in the chaotic, 20-horse Kentucky Derby 2026 field.

Veteran Todd A. Pletcher trains Renegade for the Kentucky Derby 2026, but the 58-year-old Hall of Fame conditioner has not had a Derby winner since 2017. Adding to the concern is the No. 1 post, a spot that has not produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986. "As a late-running closer, he will be at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip and is in danger of losing massive ground if he tries to pass horses on the outside on the far turn," Menez said of the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite. See who to back at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Menez is high on Chief Wallabee, even though he's not one of the top-three favorites at 8-1. Chief Wallabee has just three races in his career, and the finishes have descended, taking first in his maiden trip, second in February at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, and third at the Grade 1 Florida Derby in March.

That said, Chief Wallabee comes in with a strong strength-of-competition rating. The only horses he's finished behind are Commandment (who won both graded races) and The Puma. Wallabee actually bested The Puma in his first race, and the Chief's Speed ratings in all three events have been contender-worthy. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks at TwinSpires here with the offer code CBSSPORTS:

How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets

Menez's top pick is a horse who was "the big winner of the post draw." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is the "best value in the race." Menez is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who had a $1,045 payout at last year's race.

2026 Kentucky Derby odds