The Blue Jays and Guardians agreed to the first notable trade of Major League Baseball's annual Winter Meetings on Tuesday. Cleveland sent All-Star second baseman Andrés Giménez to Toronto as part of a reported four-player swap.
Whenever a notable trade happens, I like to provide near-instant analysis in the form trade drades. The concept is self-explanatory: I grade each side of the deal while offering insight and reasoning. (The grades themselves are the least important part of the article despite always receiving the most attention and criticism.)
Below, I've given the Trade Grades treatment to the Giménez swap. First, here's a recap of the trade in whole:
- Blue Jays receive: 2B/SS Andrés Giménez, RHP Nick Sandlin
- Guardians receive: 1B/2B Spencer Horwitz, OF Nick Mitchell
Now, let's get to the reason you clicked.
Blue Jays grade: B
Giménez is one of 13 players to tally four or more Wins Above Replacement in each of the last three years. The others, by and large, form a who's who of franchise players: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, and other names you know. Then there's Giménez, who ranks 10th in WAR over that span. Say that loud and proud enough and you'll kindle some spirited arguments about the value of WAR -- or, more specifically, the value of certain (read: defense-heavy) compositions of WAR.
There's no questioning Giménez's glove. To state it plainly: he's a shortstop who has been miscast as a second baseman. He has the fielding metrics to prove it. He ranked in the 100th percentile of Statcast's Outs Above Average measure in 2024, and that's not an outlier performance: Baseball Reference has him averaging 20 Defensive Runs Saved a pop. Even if you trust public-facing defensive metrics with your entire heart, there's still one problem at play here: Giménez glove has to be great to atone for his bat.
Play No. 9 of 2024: The stretch, the spin, the throw, the pick 🤯
— MLB (@MLB) December 9, 2024
An otherworldly sequence by Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor in the ALCS! pic.twitter.com/j9E1xTjj6p
Back in 2022, Giménez had an outstanding season at the plate, despite not often walking or hitting for power, thanks to an inflated average. In the years since, he's proved he doesn't have an Arraezian feel for the barrel. In turn, he's experienced diminishing returns offensively. Both his walk rate and ISO have declined in successive seasons, reducing them from below average to laughably bad while making him even more dependent on singles. (To his credit, he has proven to be a quality thief, averaging 29 steals per 162 games.) Predictably, his OPS has slid with them: first from 141 to 96, and then from 96 to 82. For context: his OPS+ would've tied for the 19th best last season among the 21 shortstops who received at least 400 plate appearances.
Despite Giménez's youth (he's 26), it's fair to question if his offensive game has much capacity to improve. After all, his chase rate last season was only slightly better than his career norm, and he doesn't have the kind of explosiveness that correlates with hitting for power. This might be him at full maturation. It's also fair to question, then, just where that leaves Giménez heading forward. Our best guess: as a slick-fielding shortstop with a well-below-average bat.
There's value in that profile -- and the Jays could certainly use a potential successor at the six as franchise mainstay Bo Bichette enters his walk year -- but it is worth noting Giménez doesn't come cheaply. The Guardians inked him to a nine-figure extension after his seeming breakout. As such, he's owed at least $96.5 million more through the 2029 season. It's not Corey Seager or Trea Turner money. It's also not José Caballero or Orlando Arcia money (the two aforementioned shortstops he outhit), nor is it the deeply discounted wages that come with trading for a player who, even without the extension, would remain years from reaching the market.
How you feel about Giménez and this trade will correlate perfectly with your willingness to buy into his WAR totals. If you think he's closer to a five-win player, then the Blue Jays did great by getting a foundational piece for spare parts. If you think he's closer to a two-, two-and-a-half-win player, which is where I fall, then you still get it and like it OK enough for the Blue Jays … but you probably think it's wise that the Guardians shipped him out before he grew more expensive. And if you're somewhere in between? Well, you get the point. Let's move on to the other big-league player heading to Toronto.
Sandlin, 27, is a right-handed reliever with a career 126 ERA+ and several years of team control remaining. He's traditionally been a slider-fastball pitcher, but his heater lost effectiveness last season. Sandlin adjusted by deploying his spitter more often, with that offering overperforming relative to how pitch-grade models view it. Given that Sandlin has often battled his command, he'll need to either improve his fastball or have his splitter remain dominant; otherwise, his ability to manage quality of contact -- and remain an above-average reliever -- could grow imperiled sooner than anticipated.
Guardians grade: C
As I wrote above, the Guardians unburdened themselves from Giménez's contract before it reached its meatier years. Keep in mind, this is a club that hasn't spent more than $100 million on Opening Day payroll since 2019. Having to pay eight figures annually to a glove-only player wasn't practical, not when the Guardians were already shopping first baseman Josh Naylor and outfielder Lane Thomas for budgetary reasons.
This kind of trades, where the return matters less than the created financial flexibility, challenges the concept of immediate analysis. What, exactly, will the Guardians do with the funds they've freed? I can make guesses, but I don't know for sure. The grade above, then, might age poorly (in either direction) as the offseason burns onward.
One more note about opportunity: moving Giménez frees up the keystone for Travis Bazzana, the No. 1 pick in last summer's draft and CBS Sports' No. 12 overall prospect. It's possible he reaches the majors in his first full professional season provided he hits like he should. Now, what about the players the Guardians received in return?
Horwitz, 27, hit .265/.357/.433 (125 OPS+) with 12 home runs over 381 plate appearances. His game is centered on his above-average feels for contact and the zone alike from the left side. Despite the home-run total, he doesn't possess big-time slugging indicators -- in fact, he ranked in the 29th percentile in average exit velocity. Horwitz seems more likely to settle in as a most-days platoon bat capable of contributing doubles and walks from the right side of the infield -- be it with the Guardians or another club if Cleveland continues to employ both Naylor and Kyle Manzardo.
Mitchell, 21, was a fourth-round pick in last summer's draft who appealed to model-based organizations. (Cleveland being one.) He's a smaller outfielder who hit .289/.350/.467 over 22 games in the Florida State League. His pathway to the majors is likely to hinge on his bat-to-ball skills, as he connected on more than 90% of his in-zone swings as a professional. Mitchell also has a chance to stick in center field.
