Back the underdog Twins against the Padres in San Diego, plus other best bets for Friday

he Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

By Chris Bengel

Jul 29, 2022 at 4:22 pm ET • 3 min read

USATSI

Happy Friday sports fans, the weekend has arrived and it's a beautiful thing.

Soon enough, we'll have both NFL and college football to dominate the weekend in addition to playoff races in baseball. There's nothing better than spending the entire weekend vegging out on the couch and watching an endless amount of football and baseball. We're less than a month away from the 2022 college football season getting underway, so soon that will be a reality.

For now, we've just got baseball to make some money on. Let's get right to the picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Twins at Padres, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

Key Trend: The Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
The Pick: Twins (+100)

The Twins and Padres are two very evenly matched teams coming down the stretch in the second half. However, baseball is a game that's all about the pitching matchups and Minnesota clearly has the advantage in that department tonight.

Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has put together a sensational rookie season, as he's registered just a 2.05 ERA across his four starts during the month of July. In addition, the Twins have been victorious in 10 of his last 15 starts and Ryan hasn't lost since June 14 against the Mariners. Meanwhile, Padres starter Blake Snell hasn't exactly been the star pitcher the franchise projected him to be when he was acquired prior to the 2021 season.

While he has allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts, the left-hander has struggled within the friendly confines of Petco Park. Snell has a 1-3 record to go along with a 4.67 ERA in five home starts this season. In addition, the Padres' bullpen have a 3.91 ERA and also have blown 16 saves. The Twins' offense is one of the more disciplined hitting teams in baseball as they rank seventh in batting average (.252), ninth in home runs (132), 10th in hits (837), and 10th in RBIs (433). With all that in mind, I'm confident in riding with the underdog Twins at plus money.

💰 The Picks

⚾ MLB

Cardinals at Nationals, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV

The Pick: Cardinals (-170): -- After a brief two-game set in Toronto, the Cardinals are back at full strength with star sluggers Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup. Combine that with the fact that the Cardinals are facing journeyman starter Anibal Sanchez and this should be an easy victory.

Sanchez, 38, was recalled earlier this month after signing a minor league deal in the offseason. He has surrendered seven earned runs (6.30 ERA) in 10 innings in starts against the Braves and Diamondbacks and is coming off an outing in which he gave up three earned runs on six hits in five innings in a 5-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. With the Cardinals having one of the top offenses in baseball, I expect Sanchez's struggles to continue.

As if the Cardinals' offense wasn't enough of a reason to side with the favorite, they're also sending veteran right-hander Miles Mikolas to the mound, who has been terrific in 2022. On the year, Mikolas has a 2.87 ERA and has really been an innings eater for St. Louis. In his last 10 starts, Mikolas has yielded two runs or fewer in seven of those outings. There's just too much in the Cardinals' favor in this one, so you can feel good about betting a few units on the favorite.

Key Trend: The Nationals are 16-47 in their last 63 game against a team with a winning record

Rangers at Angels, 9:38 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Martin Perez Over 5.0 Strikeouts (-115) -- This one feels like a slam dunk. The Angels are 15 games under .500 and lead the majors in strikeouts (960) on the season.

Perez is fresh off of the first All-Star Game appearance of his career. The left-hander has put together an 8-2 record to pair with a 2.59 ERA (ninth-lowest in MLB). Perez has recorded at least six strikeouts in four of his last seven starts. In six of his last seven starts, Perez has tossed at least six innings, so he should easily be around long enough to hit the six-strikeout number.

Key Trend: Perez has registered at least six strikeouts in four of his last seven starts