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Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones were elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame on Tuesday night, joining Contemporary Era Committee selection Jeff Kent as the inductees for the class of 2026.  As a reminder, players receiving at least 75% of the vote are enshrined into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown during the summer. 

Beltrán got 84.2% in this, his fourth year on the ballot. Jones received 78.4% of the vote in his ninth year. Players getting at least 5% of the vote will remain on the ballot up to 10 years. Manny Ramírez didn't get to 75% on what served as his 10th cycle, so he's done. Among the holdovers, the following 12 players will remain on the ballot next year (listed with their vote percentage this year and how many years they've been on the ballot: 

  • Chase Utley, 59.1%, third year
  • Andy Pettitte, 48.5%, 8th
  • Félix Hernández, 46.1%, 2nd
  • Alex Rodríguez, 40%, 5th
  • Bobby Abreu, 30.8%, 7th
  • Jimmy Rollins, 25.4%, 5th
  • Dustin Pedroia, 20.7%, 2nd
  • Mark Buehrle, 20%, 6th
  • Omar Vizquel, 18.4%, 9th
  • David Wright, 14.8%, 3rd
  • Francisco Rodríguez, 11.8%, 4th
  • Torii Hunter, 8.7%, 6th

The only first-year player on the ballot to get more than 5% of the vote was Cole Hamels, who debuted with 23.8%.

Every other first-time candidate fell off the ballot after failing to receive 5% of the vote. 

As for the players who will join the ballot next season, let's outline the possibilities, in order of how likely they are to make the Hall of Fame, according to, well, me.

Buster Posey

Due to a lack of longevity, Posey doesn't have a slam-dunk Hall of Fame case. Though I'm very confident he'll eventually get in, I'm not sure it happens on the first ballot. I think he should get in rather easily and right away, but I'm just one of roughly 400 voters. 

In parts of 12 seasons, Posey hit .302/.372/.460 (129 OPS+) with 1,500 hits, 293 doubles, 158 home runs, 729 RBI, 663 runs and 45 WAR. He won Rookie of the Year in 2010, National League MVP in 2012 and three World Series titles as the Giants catcher (2010, 2012 and 2014). He was long known as a clubhouse leader and good framer behind the plate. He routinely threw out would-be basestealers at a far higher clip than league average, ending up catching 32.9% compared to a league average of 27.4%. He won a Gold Glove and five Silver Sluggers. 

The eye test and "fame" test match up here. Posey was a huge deal and had the look of a Hall of Famer through much of his career. 

As relatively short as his career was, his counting stats on the offensive side might leave something to be desired for a power hitter, but keep in mind he was predominantly a catcher. 

The JAWS system has Posey 14th all time among catchers. There are currently 17 Hall of Fame catchers. Posey is a bit below the Hall of Fame standard here, but I think many voters will be willing to dip down there. In comparing Posey here to contemporaries, he's second behind Joe Mauer (seventh in JAWS), sitting ahead of players like Yadier Molina (22nd), J.T. Realmuto (26th, so far, as he's still active), Russell Martin (28th) and Brian McCann (35th). 

The counting stats really might pose a roadblock here, at least temporarily, but Posey will eventually get into the Hall as a peak candidate. 

Jon Lester

We've been discussing for years why lowering the standards for Hall of Fame pitchers makes sense in light of the smaller workloads that starters accumulate these days. Lester might have an avenue here combining some old-school elements with new-school ones. 

In parts of 16 seasons, he won exactly 200 games with only 117 losses. He didn't win a Cy Young, but finished in the top four of voting three times, topping out at second in 2016. He won World Series with both the Cubs and Red Sox and that might earn him some bonus points on the fame factor. Speaking of bonus points, he was stellar in the playoffs. In 26 postseason appearances, Lester worked 154 innings, pitching to a 2.51 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 133 strikeouts. He won NLCS MVP in 2016 and threw some massive innings in relief in the Cubs' Game 7 World Series victory. 

In the regular season, Lester worked 2,740 innings, striking out 2,488 while pitching to a 3.66 ERA (117 ERA+) with a 1.28 WHIP and 43.5 WAR. 

The JAWS system isn't too kind to Lester, as he sits 153rd all time among starting pitchers. He is ahead of Hall of Famers like Jack Morris, Jack Chesbro, Lefty Gomez and Catfish Hunter, though. To compare to current players, he's even with Gerrit Cole and ahead of Zack Wheeler, for the time being.

Though there's a case here, it feels like an uphill battle. He's certainly at least one tier lower than Posey.

The next tier is Brett Gardner, Kyle Seager and Ryan Zimmerman. 

  • Gardner hit .256/.342/.398 (100 OPS+) with 1,470 hits, 251 doubles, 73 triples, 139 home runs, 578 RBI, 943 runs, 274 steals and good enough defense to help push him to 44.3 WAR. He's 39th among left fielders in JAWS. 
  • Seager in parts of 11 years hit .251/.321/.442 (112 OPS+) with 1,395 hits, 309 doubles, 242 home runs, 807 RBI, 705 runs and 37 WAR. He's 49th among third baseman in JAWS.
  • Zimmerman, also a third baseman, sits 42nd at the position in JAWS. In his 16-year career, he hit .277/.341/.475 (116 OPS+) with 1,846 hits, 417 doubles, 284 home runs, 1,061 RBI, 963 runs and 40.1 WAR. 

After that, Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta probably gets on the ballot, as will Andrew Miller. Maybe Ervin Santana, Pablo Sandoval, Wade Davis, Joakim Soria, Dexter Fowler, Todd Frazier, Josh Reddick, Jordan Zimmermann and/or Asdrúbal Cabrera will make it, too. Some others eligible to be added to the ballot for the first time: Scott Kazmir, J.A. Happ, Jay Bruce, Jonathan Lucroy, Starlin Castro, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos, Jon Jay and Neftali Feliz.

The bottom line, though, is the new class for next season on the Hall of Fame ballot has one likely Hall of Famer in Posey and another in Lester who, likely in a best-case scenario, might sit around Mark Buehrle (20%) and Hamels (23.8%). After that, we're looking at a bunch of one-and-dones.