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The Philadelphia Phillies (8-3) will try to secure a series victory against the slumping Atlanta Braves (2-9) when the National League East rivals square off on Thursday. Philadelphia lost the series opener on Tuesday, but responded with a dramatic 4-3 win on Wednesday. Shortstop Trea Turner hit a tie-breaking home run in the ninth inning, and Atlanta was unable to score in the bottom half of the inning. The last six games involving the Phillies have been decided by two runs or fewer. 

First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET from Truist Park in Atlanta. The Braves are -125 favorites (risk $125 to win $100) in the latest Braves vs. Phillies odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Phillies are +105 underdogs. The over/under for total runs scored is 7.5. Bryce Harper to hit a home run during his first plate appearance is priced at +1000. 

SportsLine's model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 34-19 roll on all top-rated MLB picks on the run line dating back to 2023. Here are the MLB best bets for Phillies vs. Braves on Thursday: 

Phillies +1.5 runs (-184)

Two of Philadelphia's three losses this season have come by a combined four runs, while Atlanta only has two victories in its first 11 games. The Phillies played another close game on Wednesday night, using timely home runs in the seventh and ninth innings to get level in the series. The top of their lineup is off to a hot start this season, as Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper are each batting .275 or better. Starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA through his first two starts of the season, so the model has the Phillies covering this spread in over 70% of simulations, while the implied odds suggest they cover just 64% of the time. FanDuel Sportsbook has the best line at -184.  

Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 strikeouts (-154)

Luzardo opened the season by fanning 11 batters across five innings at Washington, and he followed it up with eight strikeouts in seven innings against the Dodgers last week. The 27-year-old has allowed just two earned runs in those 12 frames, cementing himself as a reliable starter in Philadelphia's loaded rotation. Atlanta has struck out 103 times in 11 games as a team, with seven of its starters striking out on Wednesday. The model has Luzardo finishing with 6.5 strikeouts in this start, providing plenty of value at these odds. FanDuel has the best price for this prop at -154. 

Over 7.5 runs (+100)

These teams easily cleared this number in the series opener on Tuesday, combining for 12 runs on 20 hits. They came up just short on Wednesday, but Philadelphia's offense is averaging nearly five runs per game. The Phillies rank fourth in the majors in team batting average (.265) and are tied for fifth in walks. Atlanta's offense has not been able to get going thus far, but it is only a matter of time with bats like Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna in the lineup. SportsLine's model has these teams combining for more than nine runs in this contest, with the Over cashing in well over 60% of simulations. DraftKings is offering the best price at +100. 

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