The Chicago Cubs head into 2017 with a target on their backs like they haven’t had in over 100 years. They are, at long last, the defending World Series champions. That leaves very little wiggle room on what would make a successful 2017, then: Win the World Series again.
The vitals
- 2016 record: 103-58-1
- 2017 depth chart: click here
- 2017 schedule: click here
So the biggest question is obviously, “can the Cubs repeat?” Yes, they can. They are plenty good enough. That doesn’t mean they will, though, so let’s tackle of few of the major questions heading into the season without getting bogged down in the obvious stuff like “Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are awesome.”
How does the team deal with being ‘the hunted?’
We can put this one to bed quickly. They wore “Embrace the Target” shirts all last spring to deal with the widespread belief that they were the odds-on favorites to win the World Series. Despite many very young players, it wasn’t a problem at all, as they stormed out of the gates with a 25-6 record. They stumbled midseason, losing 15 of 20 at one point, and then got red hot again. They trailed the Dodgers 2-1 in the NLCS and ripped off three straight wins. They were down 3-1 to the Indians in the World Series and took three straight to become champions.
I see no reason in the world that this team would somehow become less equipped to handle the pressure after going through last season. They have a manager who is exceptional at dealing with the locker room, great veteran leadership and mentally tough youngsters.
How do they replace Dexter Fowler?
It looks like it’ll be a Jon Jay/Albert Almora platoon in center with some Jason Heyward mixed in (in which case you’d have Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist in the corner outfield spots with Javier Baez at second base, most likely).
To be as blunt as possible, that’s a big offensive downgrade, barring a career year from Jay or Almora busting through in a way his minor-league numbers don’t suggest.
Defensively, though, Almora’s an upgrade over Fowler.
Still, the Cubs led the NL in WAR by center fielders last season and that’s obviously a testament to how valuable Fowler was to the team. He’s gone. That’s a loss.
We can’t, however, discount what a full season of Schwarber does for the lineup to help mitigate the Fowler loss. Plus, Addison Russell is 23, Willson Contreras is only 24 and played just a half season last year and Javier Baez is only 24. Even with the Fowler loss, there are reasons to believe the offense will actually improve after finishing second in the NL in runs last year.
There’s no way to say the Cubs are better in center this time around, but the team as whole will be able to absorb the loss.
Who fills the fifth rotation spot?
The best bet is a trio of lefties. Brett Anderson was 10-9 with a 3.69 ERA (100 ERA+) in 2015, his last full season of health. That’s plenty good for what the Cubs would need for the five spot in the rotation vacated by Jason Hammel. Keep in mind, Hammel had a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in the second half last year.
If Anderson gets hurt or stumbles, Mike Montgomery is waiting in the wings. Montgomery has a career 4.23 ERA as a starter compared to 2.10 out of the bullpen, but he’s shown flashes of high ability. Through his first seven starts for the Mariners in 2015, Montgomery had a 1.62 ERA and that included two straight shutouts. In a stretch of five consecutive starts last year for the Cubs, Montgomery had a 3.33 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings. Keep in mind that Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio has worked wonders for pitchers like Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks, Scott Feldman and Hammel, among others.
And if the Cubs need to give him a shot, Rob Zastryzny would likely be next. He was 7-3 with a 4.33 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 81 innings for Triple-A Iowa last year (the Pacific Coast League is hitter-friendly, so don’t let the ERA scare you too much).
Aside from those three lefties, Eddie Butler might get a shot. The former sandwich-round (between first and second) pick was a failure in Colorado, but that’s Colorado. It’s always possible there’s something left in the tank that leaving Coors Field brings out.
Alec Mills and Pierce Johnson are others who could see a start or two in the bigs, but consider them longshots (along with Butler).
The best guess is Anderson and Montgomery both take double digits in starts and perform well.
How healthy is Wade Davis’ elbow?
A strong argument could be made that Davis was the single best reliever in baseball in both 2014 and 2015. Even last year through elbow issues, Davis had a 1.87 ERA, though the 1.13 WHIP was far worse than in previous years and the strikeout rate fell to 9.8 K/9 (it was 13.6 in 2014).
Davis’ velocity last September averaged 95.09 mph (Brooks Baseball), compared to 97.29 in August of 2015. That’s a concernig dip. Perhaps it’s natural with the aging process and that he was coming off an elbow injury, but it has to be worrisome.
On the flip-side, Davis was six for six in saves in his final nine outings last year, allowing just one run while striking out 14 and walking one in 8 2/3 innings. Small sample, sure, but that stat-line looks like 2014-15 Davis.
If Davis falters, the Cubs could turn back to Hector Rondon or go with the likely closer of the future in Carl Edwards Jr. They could also deal for a closer at the trade deadline. It worked fine last year, as they won 103 games with Rondon closing until they traded for Aroldis Chapman.
Can Jason Heyward be fixed at the plate?
First things first: No, the Cubs shouldn’t bench Heyward. Even if he hits .230/.306/.325 (70 OPS+) again, he’s still of value as an everyday player because he’s so good defensively. The Cubs led the majors in ERA last season due in no small part to having a historically great defense. Heyward is a major piece of that puzzle, so he needs to be playing most days.
Of course, if he hits that poorly again, it’s a little more than having two pitchers hitting. He spent the entire offseason working to revamp his swing at the plate, moving his hands significantly lower, for one thing.
So long as you aren’t the one paying Heyward, it’s time to stop worrying about the contract. Plus, all he needs to do to be a great player is hit like he did from 2012-15, which was a .273/.348/.433 (114 OPS+) slash. If he’s hitting for power and getting on base at a clip that’s 14 percent better than average, he’s exceptional. Just look at this 6.2 WAR in 2014 and 6.5 WAR in 2015. Last year that dipped to 1.5. Even if he only gets his line up to something like .250/.330/.400, that gives the Cubs an above-average right fielder.
And that would be a big upgrade over last year.
It’s too early to be too worried, but through Saturday, Heyward was 0-for-13 with three strikeouts in spring training.
A question that shouldn’t be asked? Anything that has to do with a “dynasty.” Yes, the Cubs have a foundation in place capable of becoming a dynasty, but you can’t seriously talk about that until a team has won at least two titles. If they win this year, then you can ask whether or not they’ll become a dynasty. Until then, this club remains a one-time champion -- which is outstanding, obviously, but not yet worthy of dynasty talk.
I will say this, though: This team is every bit good enough to win more than the 103 games they won last regular season and repeat as champs. Everything is in place for that to happen. It’s a loaded ballclub. I haven’t thought ahead to my predictions for the season, but the Cubs will figure prominently in my mind when I’m deciding who to predict as World Series champions. Just look at the lineup, rotation and bullpen. There are two players capable of winning MVP, six position players capable of being legitimate All-Stars, a “bench” player who could be called the best bench player in baseball, three pitchers capable of winning the Cy Young and a closer capable of winning the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year award.
On paper, that’s a dominant team.
Probable lineup
- Kyle Schwarber, LF
- Kris Bryant, 3B
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
- Ben Zobrist, 2B
- Addison Russell, SS
- Willson Contreras, C
- Jason Heyward, RF
- SP
- Jon Jay, CF
Bench: Javier Baez (three-way platoon with Schwarber and Zobrist), Albert Almora (likely platoon with Jay), Matt Szczur, Miguel Montero
Probable rotation
- Jon Lester (L)
- Jake Arrieta (R)
- Kyle Hendricks (R)
- John Lackey (R)
- Brett Anderson (L)
ALT: Mike Montgomery (L)
Probable bullpen
Wade Davis is the closer with Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr. in setup duty. Justin Grimm and Koji Uehara are also options in setup relief as well, with the Cubs being loaded with high-leverage types. Brian Duensing appears to be the only lefty aside from swing-man Montgomery, though Rob Zastryzny will factor in both the rotation and bullpen at some point.
SportsLine projection: 103-59, NL Central champs, best record in baseball
