The Cincinnati Reds are coming off three straight losing seasons, and since the start of the 2015 campaign they’ve racked up 192 losses. Obviously, in 2017 they have almost no shot at contention, as they share a division with the Cubs, Cardinals and Pirates. However, establishing some forward momentum as they position themselves for future relevance is a priority. So how’s that likely to go? Let’s have a look ... 

The vitals

A better bullpen

For a big chunk of 2016, the Reds’ bullpen was a historically awful smoking crater, and indeed the final numbers tell such a story: Their 5.09 relief ERA ranked ahead of only the Rockies, and their bullpen FIP (fielding-independent pitching) was last in the majors by a wide margin. Moving forward, though, things aren’t quite as grim as those numbers suggest. In large part, that’s because Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen arrived on the scene. 

Iglesias, who’s going into his age-27 campaign, began last season in the rotation, but when he returned in June from a shoulder impingement he landed in the bullpen. He did so to great effect. From June 21 onward, he worked 50 innings in relief, and over that span Iglesias pitched to an ERA of 1.98 while striking out 54 batters against 18 unintentional walks. In the bullpen, he ramped down use of his changeup while still attacking hitters with a fastball-sinker-slider arsenal. Over the course of last season, he began working more and more high-leverage innings, and by August he was getting save opportunities. 

As for Lorenzen, now 25, he took a shot at starting in 2015, but the Reds (wisely) decided he was better deployed as a reliever. He returned to Cincy from a UCL sprain in late June, and, like Iglesias, gave them 50 innings out of the pen. Over that span, he put up a 2.88 ERA (149 ERA+) with no unearned runs allowed and a K/BB ratio of 3.69. As long as Lorenzen stays healthy, expect more of the same in 2017. 

So having Iglesias and Lorenzen working the most vital innings for a full season will significantly improve the Reds’ relief numbers. The free-agent addition of Drew Storen might also help matters, assuming he returns to his pre-2016 form. As well, personnel turnover is also a factor. Last season, 11 Reds relievers -- J.C. Ramirez, Caleb Cotham, J.J. Hoover, A.J. Morris, Drew Hayes, Steve Delabar, Wandy Peralta, Dayan Diaz, Abel De Los Santos, Matt Magill and Layne Somsen -- combined to allow 128 runs in 129 2/3 innings. In other words, more than 20 percent of the team’s total relief innings were absolutely disastrous. The good news moving forward is that none of those 11 relievers figures prominently in the Reds’ plans for 2017. Indeed, only one -- Peralta -- is still in the organization. That’s some major “addition by subtraction.”

An active trade deadline?

The Reds are of course mid-stream in the rebuilding process, but they’ve had much less success than, say, the Braves, White Sox, Phillies and Brewers when it comes to trading away veterans in exchange for long-term assets. They’ve done some of that in recent and semi-recent deals involving Todd Frazier, Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce and Dan Straily. However, they haven’t landed any premium young talents. In any event, the 2017 non-waiver trade deadline will present them another opportunity. The Reds of course almost certainly won’t contend this season, and that perhaps means another sell-off in late July. 

A healthy and productive first half out of shortstop Zack Cozart could drum up some interest. Flipping veteran arms like Scott Feldman and Storen at the deadline is also something to consider. Catcher Devin Mesoraco is going into his age-29 season and is under contract through 2018. He has played in a total of just 39 games over the past two seasons, but if he avoids injury and produces leading up to the deadline, then it might be time to flip him. 

Franchise first baseman Joey Votto is of course the Reds’ most lucrative trade chip. Votto is now 33, but over the past two seasons he has re-established himself as one of baseball’s best hitters. The issue, of course, is his contract. Votto is still owed $157 million through 2024. Votto figures to add a great deal of value in the near-term, but that contract is an impediment. If the Reds want to get back a package of difference-making prospects, they’ll have to throw in a lot of cash in any deal involving Votto. That’s precisely what they should do, but it’s an investment. If they’re not willing to do that, then they are better off keeping Votto rather than trading him for mere salary relief. 

Unmoveable for now is probably right-hander Homer Bailey. He has a grim injury history, and he still has $49 million on his contract. If he’s able to re-establish his value this season, then perhaps he can be moved over the winter. 

Another high draft pick is (probably) on the way

Since the Reds began their ongoing slide in the standings, they drafted Tyler Stephenson with the 11th overall pick in 2015 (he’s their catcher of the future) and last year took third baseman Nick Senzel with the second overall pick. Coming into this season, Baseball America ranked Senzel as the ninth-best prospect in all of baseball. Thanks to last year’s 94-loss effort, they’ll again pick second overall. Very likely, the 2017 season will bring another 90-loss season to Cincinnati (see below for the SportsLine projection of note). That’s not fun to watch, but it will yield yet another lofty draft selection. A run of high picks such as that can help transform a franchise (just ask the world-champion Cubs), so consider this the silver lining to all the on-field struggles.

Bryan Price’s last ride

In three seasons on the job Cincy, manager Bryan Price has guided his charges to a record of 208-278 and back-to-back last-place finishes. To put that in perspective, just 11 other managers since 1900 have managed to finish worse than Price’s 70 games under .500 in three seasons or less. Of the 318 qualifying managers in the Baseball-Reference database, Price’s winning percentage of .428 ranks 276th. You get the idea. To be sure, Price hasn’t had lots of talent to work with, but the reality is that the Reds were a playoff team the year before Price took over. Since then, they’ve been one of the worst teams in baseball. Price is on a one-year contract for 2017 with an option for 2018, but it would be surprising if he’s the Reds’ skipper on Opening Day 2018. 

Probable lineup

  1. Billy Hamilton, CF
  2. Jose Peraza, 2B
  3. Joey Votto, 1B
  4. Adam Duvall, LF
  5. Scott Schebler, RF
  6. Zack Cozart, SS
  7. Eugenio Suarez, 3B
  8. Devin Mesoraco, C
  9. Pitcher

Probable rotation

  1. Brandon Finnegan (L)
  2. Scott Feldman (R)
  3. Anthony DeSclafani (R)
  4. Tim Adelman (R)
  5. Robert Stephenson (R)

Finnegan and Stephenson have long-term promise, and DeSclafani is not yet 27. As well, high-ceiling arms like Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed are on the way. If there’s an organizational strength right now, then it’s the young, controllable starting pitching.

Probable bullpen

Closer: Raisel Iglesias (R)
Setup: Michael Lorenzen (R), Drew Storen (R), Tony Cingrani (L)
Middle/long relief:  Blake Wood (R), Lisalverto Bonilla (R), and one or two spots to be determined

SportsLine projection: 63-99, last place in NL Central